3. Possession battle
A series between two recent Stanley Cup winners (Avalanche in 2022; Golden Knights in 2023) could boil down to 5-on-5 play, as well as conversions in high-pressure situations. The Avalanche have had a significantly better 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (56.0 in series victories over Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild) compared to the Golden Knights (48.5 in series victories over Utah Mammoth, Anaheim Ducks).
The Avalanche have also been the better even-strength team this postseason, outscoring their opponents 23-13 at 5-on-5 over their first nine playoff games; the Golden Knights have scored the same number of goals at 5-on-5 as their opponents (25-25 in 12 games). Wedgewood has been particularly strong in high-pressure situations; he leads the NHL in 5-on-5 close save percentage (1.000), meaning when the game is tied in the first or second period or within one goal in the third period. Hart, meanwhile, has a 5-on-5 close save percentage (.892) that’s below the NHL average this postseason (.913).
Veteran defenseman Brent Burns, who has never won the Stanley Cup in his long, successful NHL career, leads Colorado in 5-on-5 shot attempts differential this postseason (plus-62; fifth in entire NHL), while Marner leads Vegas in that category (plus-24). Some of Colorado’s other depth players are among the NHL leaders in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage this postseason: defenseman Josh Manson (65.7; first), forwards Logan O'Connor (63.7; fourth) and Jack Drury (62.7; seventh) rank among the top 10 (minimum five playoff games played).
Another key matchup is the Golden Knights’ penalty kill (86.8 percent in playoffs) under new coach John Tortorella (hired March 29) against the Avalanche’s power play (25.0 this postseason), which has scored power-play goals in five of their past six playoff games. Three players in this series are tied with each other for second in the NHL in power-play goals this postseason (MacKinnon, Mark Stone, Dorofeyev have three each); MacKinnon’s game-tying goal against the Wild in their eventual Game 5 win to clinch the series came with the goalie pulled for an extra attacker. Necas, meanwhile, leads Colorado in power-play shots on goal this postseason (10) but has yet to score a power-play goal
An X-factor for the Avalanche in all situations is Nazem Kadri, who was re-acquired by the Avalanche from the Calgary Flames prior to the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline. Three of Kadri’s six points this postseason have come on the power play, where he plays on the first unit with MacKinnon, Makar, Necas and Landeskog. It’s worth noting this series features four of the NHL’s top 10 players in midrange shots on goal during the playoffs: Necas (14; third), Dorofeyev (12; tied for sixth), Kadri and MacKinnon (11 each; tied for ninth).