Mock 2026 NHL Draft: Intrigue after Maple Leafs take McKenna

Following the NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday, NHL.com deputy managing editor Adam Kimelman and senior draft writer Mike G. Morreale make their predictions for how the first 16 selections of the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft could turn out.

The Toronto Maple Leafs won the lottery. Kimelman and Morreale agree they will use the No. 1 pick on Penn State University forward Gavin McKenna, but starting with the San Jose Sharks, who won the No. 2 selection, their opinions vary widely on what could happen next.

The 2026 draft will be held at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The first round is June 26 (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS), with Rounds 2-7 on June 27 (11 a.m. ET; NHLN, ESPN+, SN).

The 16 teams that missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs took part in the lottery drawing for the first two selections. The remaining teams were ordered based on the NHL standings.

Picks 17-32 will be determined by the results of the playoffs.

1. Toronto Maple Leafs

Kimelman -- Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA): The Maple Leafs' new management group, led by general manager John Chayka, gets to start its tenure by selecting the most talented player in this draft class. McKenna (5-foot-11, 170 pounds) entered the season as the projected top pick and nothing he did this season changed that. After some bumps early while he adjusted to the NCAA level, the 18-year-old finished tied for fifth with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 35 games, including 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 19 games after the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship, where he helped Canada win the bronze medal. He'll probably need a similar adjustment period to the NHL as he gets bigger and stronger, but he projects to be an elite offensive driver with his vision, hockey IQ and playmaking ability.

Morreale -- Gavin McKenna: The Maple Leafs, who will pick No. 1 for the second time in 11 years, could use a forward with ice in his veins who is capable of pushing the pace within their top six, and McKenna is the most dynamic offensive playmaker of this class. He established nine team records during his freshman season at Penn State and finished second in scoring at World Juniors with 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) for bronze medal-winning Canada.

2. San Jose Sharks

Kimelman -- Alberts Smits, D, Munchen (GER): Smits (6-3, 205) stands out in a crowded field of high-end defensemen because of how he's already proven himself against the highest level of competition. That includes two assists and an average ice time of 18:44 in four games for Latvia at the 2026 Winter Olympics despite the 18-year-old being the youngest player at the tournament. He's a strong skater, has a high-end offensive game and his maturity on and off the ice -- he lived on his own at age 13 when he left his native Latvia to play in Finland -- makes him a possibility to play in the NHL as soon as next season.

Morreale -- Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frolunda (SWE): It's scary to think what the Sharks will look like in five years with cornerstone talent like centers Macklin Celebrini and Michael Misa, and wings Will Smith and William Eklund, already in the fold. Though it wouldn't be a surprise if the Sharks trade down and choose one of the elite defensemen available in this draft, Stenberg (5-11, 183) is the next-best player here and would fill a need for an elite complementary wing who can keep pace with Celebrini, the face of the franchise. The 18-year-old has been exceptional at every level he's played this season.

3. Vancouver Canucks

Kimelman -- Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL): Arguably the top center available in the draft, the 17-year-old could be the foundation of the Canucks' rebuilding effort. Malhotra was second among Ontario Hockey League rookies with 84 points (29 goals, 55 assists) in 67 games and was even better during the OHL playoffs with 26 points (13 goals, 13 assists) in 15 games to help Brantford reach the conference finals. He's gifted offensively while also being a committed two-way player with good hockey genes. He also has a Canucks connection. His father, Manny Malhotra, has coached Abbotsford, Vancouver's American Hockey League affiliate, the past two seasons.

Morreale -- Caleb Malhotra: Vancouver lacks a young, elite center capable of driving play, creating offense and growing into a first-line talent. Malhotra was second in scoring among OHL rookies and is attentive to detail and productive in all aspects of the game, making an impact at 5-on-5, on the power play and the penalty kill.

4. Chicago Blackhawks

Kimelman -- Ivar Stenberg: Stenberg had 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) this season, the fifth-most by an 18-year-old in the Swedish Hockey League, and the most since Daniel Sedin (42) and Henrik Sedin (34) in 1998-99. He's an offensive dynamo who can drive play to create opportunities for others or finish chances, and he's reliable defensively. With young centers Connor Bedard and Anton Frondell in place for the Blackhawks, Stenberg would be an ideal playmaking wing to pair with either of them.

Morreale -- Chase Reid, D, Sault St. Marie (OHL): Reid (6-2, 195) is a right-shot defenseman who can move pucks and play heavy minutes, which would help future proof the position and reduce pressure on young players. He's intelligent, knows when to move with the puck or pass it, can quarterback a power play and has overcome much adversity to reach this point in his career. The 18-year-old had 48 points (18 goals, 30 assists) in 45 games for the Greyhounds and is No. 2 on NHL Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters.​

5. New York Rangers

Kimelman -- Chase Reid: Reid's skating is the foundation for his high-end all-around game. His 18 goals were fifth among OHL defensemen and his 48 points in 45 games were 12th. He's committed to play at Michigan State next season, which should allow him to further develop physically. The potential of having Adam Fox and Reid as offensive drivers from the back end and quarterbacking the power play could fuel a rapid return to playoff contention.

Morreale -- Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL): The Rangers have leaned on experience along the blue line, but the development system would benefit from some younger, mobile defensemen and Carels (6-2, 198) would be a great option. He's a fluid skater with smarts and two-way acumen and earned big minutes in the Western Hockey League as a clutch performer. He was fourth among WHL defensemen with 73 points (20 goals, 53 assists) and second with 32 power-play points (five goals, 27 assists) in 58 regular-season games.

6. Calgary Flames

Kimelman -- Carson Carels: His all-around skill was on full display this season. Carels has strength built through work on the family farm, can be elusive when he's skating with the puck and makes smart breakout passes. In addition to his strong season in the WHL, he had one assist and was plus-3 in five games as Canada's youngest player at World Juniors.

Morreale -- Viggo Bjorck, C, Djurgarden (SWE): The Flames' top priority is to add an offensive presence after forward Matt Coronato led them with 45 points (18 goals, 27 assists) in 80 games this season. Calgary lacks a forward prospect who can tilt games offensively. Bjorck (5-9, 177) eased any questions concerning his stature with his strong performance as Sweden's second-line center during its run to the gold medal at the 2026 WJC, when he had nine points (three goals, six assists), averaged 20:23 of ice time and won 54.6 percent of his face-offs in seven games. The right-handed shot is a smart two-way player with strong puck-handling skills, elite passing ability and a relentless approach.

7. Seattle Kraken

Kimelman -- Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota (NCAA): The Kraken have been searching for a franchise defenseman to build around, and Verhoeff (6-3, 208) would be an optimal choice. The 17-year-old passed every test he faced when he stepped up a level to play NCAA hockey this season, finishing with 20 points (six goals, 14 assists) in 36 games as a freshman. He also stood out for Canada at World Juniors, finishing with four assists in five games while getting demonstrably better, and earning more ice time, with each game. With Verhoeff's size, strength and the maturity gained from a season of college hockey, he could have a chance to play in the NHL as soon as next season.

Morreale -- Keaton Verhoeff: Seattle's blue line is solid but aging and left shot heavy. Enter Verhoeff, a right-handed shot with the size and transitional ability that translates well to the NHL. His overall game improved as the fourth-youngest player in NCAA men's hockey, where he learned to battle down low and defend with confidence. Verhoeff had the fourth-most points ever by a 17-year-old NCAA defenseman behind A.J. Thelen of Michigan State (29 points, 2003-04), Zach Werenski of Michigan (25 points, 2014-15) and Noah Hanifin of Boston College (23 points, 2014-15).

8. Winnipeg Jets

Kimelman -- Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL): The Jets need to add prospect depth at defenseman and Rudolph has the size (6-2, 206), skill, vision and hockey IQ to play in the top-four sooner rather than later. The 18-year-old was third among WHL defensemen with 78 points (28 goals, 50 assists) in 68 games and has been outstanding during WHL playoffs with 23 points (nine goals, 14 assists) and three game-winning goals in 15 games to help Prince Albert reach the league finals. After selecting left-shot defenseman Sascha Boumedienne in the first round (No. 28) of the 2025 NHL Draft, adding a strong, skilled right-handed shot like Rudolph here is setting a nice foundation for the future in Winnipeg.

Morreale -- Daxon Rudolph: The Jets should prioritize defensemen with legitimate top four ceilings, especially left-handed shots with the potential to log heavy minutes and support Josh Morrissey long term. Rudolph isn't far away from turning into an NHL-ready defenseman with top-four upside. He's effective in one-on-one battles in the trenches, has a good wrist shot, possesses a high hockey IQ, shows a lot of poise in transition and rarely gets caught out of position. He's been compared by some scouts to Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty.

9. Florida Panthers

Kimelman -- Ryan Lin, D, Vancouver (WHL): The Panthers need to get younger on defense, and Lin has a dynamic element to his game. The 18-year-old is an outstanding skater capable of carrying the puck out of the zone or finding open teammates, and his high hockey IQ helps him make the right decision in pressure situations. And despite Lin's size (5-11, 178), he doesn't shy away from physical play. The next step in his development will come in college at the University of Denver next season.

Morreale -- Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA): Lawrence (6-foot, 185) is potentially the offensive driver the Panthers could use down the middle to create offense and elevate skilled wings. The 17-year-old left-handed shot, in a tie as the second-youngest player in NCAA men's hockey, joined Boston University on Jan. 6 after 13 games with Muskegon in the United States Hockey League. He's a two-way center capable of driving play through the middle of the ice and a relentless work ethic. A full season under BU coach Jay Pandolfo in 2026-27 will only bolster his development.

10. Nashville Predators

Kimelman -- Viggo Bjorck: The Predators used their first pick on a center at the 2024 NHL Draft (Egor Surin, No. 22) and 2025 NHL Draft (Brady Martin, No. 5), but Bjorck is too good an option to pass on here. Bjorck, who didn't turn 18 until March 12, had 15 points (six goals, nine assists) in 42 SHL games and never looked out of place against older, more physically developed competition, displaying a feisty, determined approach. His skating and edgework drive his high-end offensive skill set.

Morreale -- Alberts Smits: With 12 picks in the 2026 draft and a top 10 slot for the second straight year, the Predators might just look to secure the next best player on their board. That has to be Smits, a strong-bodied, steady and unintimidated defenseman who stood out for Latvia at World Juniors by leading his country in ice time and earning a roster spot for the 2026 Winter Olympics.

11. St. Louis Blues

Kimelman -- Tynan Lawrence: With three first-round picks, the Blues can opt for the best player available. At this spot that's Lawrence, who had seven points (two goals, five assists) in 18 NCAA games after joining the Terriers midway through the season. He's a very good skater who isn't afraid to engage physically, even against the bigger opposition he faced at the NCAA level. He'll be even further along in his development with another season of college hockey.

Morreale -- Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (FIN): The Blues could use another dynamic offensive player in the pipeline and Suvanto is one of the more mature two-way forwards in this draft class. At 6-foot-3, 207 pounds, he's drawn comparisons to fellow Finland native, Florida Panthers forward Anton Lundell. He knows how to protect the puck, is good on face-offs and plays a heavy game to match up physically against any opponent.

12. New Jersey Devils

Kimelman -- Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor (OHL): Belchetz missed the last month of the season and the OHL playoffs with an injury, but it's not considered a long-term issue. When healthy, the 18-year-old nearly was impossible to handle down low in the offensive zone because of his size (6-5, 228) and skill set, similar to how Philadelphia Flyers forward Porter Martone played last season in the OHL for Brampton. The Devils certainly could use a player with the kind of size and snarl Belchetz has the potential to bring to their top-six forward group.

Morreale -- Ethan Belchetz: New Jersey needs forwards who get to the interior, bring pace and have finishing ability to complement centers Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. Belchetz has an old-school type of game because of his physically imposing presence and toughness. He has a deceptive shot, is effective at the net front and had 59 points (34 goals, 25 assists) in 57 games. He was second on the Spitfires with 10 power-play goals.

13. New York Islanders

Kimelman -- Oliver Suvanto: Though Suvanto is one of the youngest players in this draft class and won't turn 18 until Sept. 3, he's physically mature and more than held his own against older competition in Liiga, the top professional league in Finland, with 11 points (two goals, nine assists) in 48 games. He skates well once he gets up to speed, plays a smart, two-way game and scouts like his pro-level consistency and awareness.

Morreale -- Wyatt Cullen, LW, USA U-18 (NTDP-USHL): The need for more top-six scoring upside in the pipeline would be nice and Cullen fits the bill. The son of three-time Stanley Cup champion Matt Cullen is committed to play at the University of Minnesota next season. Wyatt has special offensive skills, most notably his ability to see the ice in ways few players in this draft class can. His hockey IQ and work ethic are high-end, and his defensive game is improving. He had 45 points (16 goals, 29 assists) in 40 games, including nine points (three goals, six assists) in five games to lead the United States at the 2026 IIHF World Under-18 Championship.

14. Columbus Blue Jackets

Kimelman -- Oscar Hemming, LW,  Boston College (NCAA): It was an odd season for Hemming, who didn't get on the ice until Dec. 28 because of a dispute with his team in Finland. The 17-year-old had eight points (one goal, seven assists) in 19 games, is an outstanding skater for his size (6-3, 193) and showed a willingness to engage physically. The Blue Jackets have amassed a nice core of big, strong forwards in Adam Fantilli (6-2, 205), Kirill Marchenko (6-3, 201), Sean Monahan (6-2, 206) and top prospect Cayden Lindstrom (6-3, 209). Hemming would fit nicely with that group and a drama-free season of college hockey in 2026-27 should fast-forward his development.

Morreale -- Ryan Lin: A mobile, all situations defenseman with a top pair ceiling remains one of the organization's biggest needs in the prospect pipeline. Lin has a high hockey IQ, and his transition game is excellent. He's capable of getting to the inside and underneath opposing players by using leverage and his size to his advantage, and he's good at taking time and space away from opponents.

15. St. Louis Blues (from Detroit Red Wings)

Kimelman -- Xavier Villeneuve, D, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL): Injuries limited Villeneuve (5-11, 162) to 37 games, but he was third among defensemen in the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League with an average of 1.03 points per game (38 points; six goals, 32 assists). The 18-year-old left-handed shot patterns his game after Lane Hutson of the Montreal Canadiens and showed improved strength and physical play in the defensive zone this season. The Blues have some skilled defenseman prospects coming, topped by Theo Lindstein, who played 17 games this season, and Adam Jiricek, one of the top defenseman in the OHL. But Villeneuve has the potential to drive offense from the back end with his feet and his shot, and quarterback a top power play.

Morreale -- Xavier Villeneuve: After getting the big forward with their first pick of the first round, St. Louis next can grab a dynamic puck-mover for their back end. Villeneuve, a deceptive and elusive skater in all directions, controls play with strong transitional ability and can find outlets with precision. The left-handed shot can run a power play and has great escape capabilities, making it hard to knock him off the puck.

16. Washington Capitals

Kimelman -- Adam Novotny, LW, Peterborough (OHL): Novotny (6-1, 205) made a seamless transition to the OHL from Extraliga in his native Czechia with 65 points (34 goals, 31 assists) in 58 games. The 18-year-old plays a power forward game with nice hands in tight and is a high-volume shooter; his 278 shots on goal were second in the OHL. He also was a standout for Czechia at the WJC with three assists and a tournament-high 34 shots on goal in seven games.

Morreale -- Nikita Klepov, RW, Saginaw (OHL): The Capitals might seek a player with top-six scoring upside, particularly a forward who can drive offense rather than rely on established veterans. Klepov (6-foot, 180), the OHL rookie of the year, led the league with 97 points (37 goals, 60 assists) in 67 games. He knows how to find open space and has an exceptional one-timer. He's committed to play at Michigan State next season.