Ullmark vs. Andersen goalie matchup in Eastern Conference 1st Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, NHL.com charted 100 goals against each goaltender late in the regular season to see what patterns emerge. Here is the comparison between Linus Ullmark of the Ottawa Senators and Frederik Andersen of the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Eastern Conference first-round series between the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators features two very different goaltending options and approaches.

Ottawa will undoubtedly go with Ullmark, but there are questions about whether Carolina starts incumbent playoff starter Andersen or turns to first-year NHL revelation Brandon Bussi. It’s possible the Hurricanes play each in this best-of-7 series, and while that will undoubtedly dominate headlines, the reality is the team that can get to the other team’s relative weaknesses in goal more often has the best chance to win.

Linus Ullmark

Ottawa Senators

Ullmark has endured a difficult season and plenty of criticism in Ottawa but has a .902 save percentage since the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics. He is a huge reason why the Senators got into the playoffs. The 2023 Vezina Trophy winner, voted as the NHL’s top goalie, clearly has the skill to backstop a strong Ottawa team on a playoff run, too.

Rebounds wide: 15 of Ullmark’s tracked goals came off rebounds, well above the 11.7-percent average for the 10,000-plus goals tracked for this project since 2017. A majority were scored along the ice, outside of either pad. With a somewhat narrow butterfly and conservative depth that can limit low coverage on second chances and scrambles, those numbers re-affirm the importance of getting to the net and creating some degree of chaos against a goalie who reads and anticipates the play so well. Broken plays and bounces were the key factor in another 21 goals, also well above a 14-percent average.

Take away his eyes: Screen shots were a factor on 20 percent of the goals Ullmark allowed in this sample, above the 15.1-percent tracked average. The Hurricanes would be wise to place an emphasis on the importance of getting bodies to the net and forcing Ullmark into more of a blocking-and-shift mindset behind traffic.

Pass, don’t shoot: When it comes to odd-man rushes, forcing lateral movement with east-west passes is always a good way to increase scoring chances, but it’s especially critical against a goalie who reads open looks and straight-line attacks as well as anyone not named Connor Hellebuyck. Ullmark was near perfect when puck carriers held and shot on odd-man rushes this season, but closer to NHL average after a pass was completed.

High glove? Not so fast: It’s hard to ignore the highest total being over the glove but while a more neutral “handshake” glove position compared to the “fingers-up” preferences of many peers might naturally invite higher shots, the reality is only three of these 24 goals were on clean looks, and only one of eight breakaway goals went in high glove. Most high-glove goals were the result of screens (eight), broken plays (six) and quick shots after lateral movement, where a tendency to keep the glove lower puts most goalies in more of a blocking position. There were just as many clean-look goals scored low blocker and half of the eight breakaways went through the 5-hole: two on dekes and two on quick shots.

Frederik Andersen

Carolina Hurricanes 

Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour indicated he could use each of his goalies in the first round after Bussi’s breakout in his first NHL season led to split starts most of the season, but the hunch is Andersen and his 85 playoff games of experience get first crack, especially after he played so well in the first two rounds of the playoffs last season. If they do switch, Bussi’s aggressive, somewhat unpredictable, approach will provide a very different look compared to Andersen’s more controlled, conservative positional game.

Get out on the rush: The numbers nearly aren’t as lopsided as three seasons ago, when 64 percent of the tracked goals came off rush chances, but even at 45 percent this season, Andersen is still well above the 35 percent average behind a Carolina team that doesn’t surrender a lot of shots but does tend to give up good looks in transition.

Staring down the goalie: Andersen gave up 21 “breakaway” goals in this tracked sample of 100 goals, and while that includes partial breakaway and even some 1-on-1 chances in zone, it’s more than double the 10.2-percent tracked average in this project. Clearly some of that is on Carolina giving up 71 such chances on Andersen, third most in the NHL, but there are trends worth noting within that. While the obvious shooting targets are high glove (six goals) -- since he has a more neutral “handshake” glove position -- and blocker (three goals), Andersen does a nice job of matching speed on long breakaways and forcing players to deke. The key in both cases may be going against the grain (nine of 12 goals).

Back the other way: Those against-the-grain breakaway goals are part of a larger trend during the past two seasons. After accounting for 34.5 percent last regular season, the total was down to 28 percent this season, but still well above the 18.5-percent average. The goals came on a wide variety of plays. Off the rush, Andersen can get a little flat with his backward flow at times, which leaves the back shoulder off angle as shooters get deeper into the zone, something that can be exacerbated by his conservative depth. Add in a tendency to hold his blocker lower and it’s not a shock four of five clean goals were high to that side coming down the opposite wing. It is also possible to catch him moving, with a tendency to slide a bit more than many peers on passes to the faceoff dots and below. It leaves him susceptible to quick plays and passes in the other direction when he does.

Lateral low and elevate: Andersen gave up 22 goals on plays and passes across the middle of the ice, which is slightly below the 22.1-percent average, but 16 came below the hash marks. That includes some of the 23 goals on plays from below the goal line or bottom of the circles. Each trend stresses the importance of attacking down low. Though Andersen sometimes squares up on rush chances and plays out of the corner in a way that increases the rotation and distance required to push across, for the most part he uses good play reading and neutral positioning to give himself a chance by at least getting a pad across, making it important to elevate quick shots on the other end of those low plays.