Fantasy faceoff: Johnny Gaudreau vs. Filip Forsberg

All offseason long, NHL.com will cover all the angles leading up to your fantasy hockey draft. For some of the most compelling debates, our fantasy writers will compare two players at a given position in the same projected draft range, according to NHL.com's top 250 rankings.
Value is quantified based on factors including (but not limited to) line combinations, power-play usage, team goalie situations, injury history, bounce-back, breakout or sleeper potential, possible regression and age. Once each writer has made his argument, fans can cast their votes in our @NHLFantasy Twitter poll.
Today, we compare left wings Johnny Gaudreau of the Calgary Flames and Filip Forsberg of the Nashville Predators:

NOTE:Standard Yahoo categories include goals, assists, plus/minus, penalty minutes, power-play points and shots on goal for skaters, and wins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts for goalies.
BEN ZWEIMAN: Gaudreau had his worst statistical season in the NHL in 2016-17, finishing with 61 points (18 goals, 43 assists), 182 shots on goal and a minus-7 rating. He was 43rd among LWs in Yahoo's standard-based rankings, 17 spots behind Forsberg. Gaudreau also placed just inside the top 150 overall (No. 141). Part of Gaudreau's struggles could be credited to a slow start that was followed by a fractured finger that required surgery in mid-November. He had 11 points (five goals, six assists) and 44 SOG in his first 17 games, but had 50 points (13 goals, 37 assists) in his final 55 games. Gaudreau also set an NHL career low with 16 power-play points (four goals, 12 assists) despite the Flames ranking 11th with the man-advantage (20.2 percent). Had Gaudreau avoided those two negatives, he likely would have had a season reminiscent of 2015-16, when he had 78 points (30 goals, 48 assists) in 79 games (6th among LWs, 30th overall).
The Flames have had virtually no roster turnover so far this offseason, with the core forward group from last season intact. Gaudreau will have yet another season with Sean Monahan as his center on the first line, and there are plenty of appealing right wings to play with them. Most notably is college free agent signee Spencer Foo, who was fourth in the NCAA with 62 points (26 goals, 36 assists) in 38 games for Union College last season. He could be the missing piece of the Gaudreau-Monahan line. Calgary also solidified the back end by trading for goalie Mike Smith and defenseman Travis Hamonic, which could aid Gaudreau's plus/minus.

On the flip side, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Forsberg and the Predators. The forward group is lacking depth at center and Ryan Johansen, who has yet to sign a contract with Nashville, is coming off surgery. One injury to Johansen or wing Viktor Arvidsson, and Forsberg's value would plummet. He also possesses a lower ceiling than Gaudreau, but he has an edge in goals and SOG. If Nashville goes through a Stanley Cup hangover and Calgary takes another step with its young core, Gaudreau should be able to out-produce Forsberg.

DAVID SATRIANO:Forsberg had 58 points (31 goals, 27 assists), 32 penalty minutes, nine game-winning-goals (tied for second in the League) and 234 SOG. He also had three shorthanded goals (tied for fifth). The nine power-play points were a dip from 23 in 2015-16 and he was minus-4. Forsberg averaged 18:31 of ice time per game, including 2:37 on the power play and 1:27 shorthanded. His ice time was down from 19:03 in 2015-16, although he played almost exactly the same amount on the power play (2:38) and got more shorthanded time (1:46). After failing to score in his first 13 games, Forsberg got rolling and had consecutive hat tricks on Feb. 21-23 and 10 goals in five games from Feb. 21-28. He led the Predators during the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs with 16 points (nine goals, seven assists) in 22 games.
Forsberg, 22, has at least 58 points and 26 goals in each of his past three seasons and should continue to see a first-line role with Johansen (61 points last season) and Arvidsson, who had a breakout season with 61 points (30 goals, 31 assists). The three were the top three scorers on the Predators, and it wouldn't be surprising if that remains the same. The Predators lost forward James Neal (to the Las Vegas Golden Knights in the NHL Expansion Draft) and center Colin Wilson (in a trade with the Colorado Avalanche), which could mean Forsberg sees an increase in ice time closer to the 19 minutes he played two seasons ago.
Gaudreau had career lows in every category, including goals, assists, points, power-play goals, power-play points, shooting percentage, game-winning goals and SOG, and was a minus-rating for the first time. Gaudreau also doesn't help his owners in penalty minutes; he had four last season (winning the Lady Byng Trophy as the League's most gentlemanly player), and has 38 in 232 NHL games. Even if he stays healthy, Gaudreau will be hard pressed to score anywhere in the vicinity of the 30 goals and 78 points he had in 2015-16.