Stolarz Bobrovsky split

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, the last 100 goals allowed for each goaltender in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The Eastern Conference Second Round between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers features 2024 Stanley Cup-winning playing partners. Toronto No.1 Anthony Stolarz, the former Panthers backup now excelling as a starter, goes against Florida No. 1 Sergei Bobrovsky, who started all 24 games in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs en route to the franchise’s first Cup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs

Stolarz missed almost two months after getting knee surgery on Dec. 18, limiting his regular-season sample size to 71 goals, but when healthy the 6-foot-6 goalie was one of the NHL’s best, finishing with a League-leading .926 save percentage in 34 games. Stolarz is a study in contrasts compared to Bobrovsky, relying more on size and positioning than speed and skating, so it should come as no surprise the scoring trends also look a lot different.

Stolarz TOR shot chart

Rarely out of position: Stolarz moves well, especially for his size, and plays with a conservative depth in-zone, so it’s not a shock that he excels on the tough side-to-side chances most teams are trying to create more of, with just 12 goals (16.9 percent) on plays across the middle of the ice below the top of the face-off circles, well below the 22.1 percent tracked average. The Ottawa Senators only converted one such lateral play in six games in the first round. It also shows up in fewer goals along the ice outside of his pads, which is how backdoor tap-ins are recorded. Stolarz can cover the shorter lateral distances his depth creates even from a low, wide stance, so don’t expect to score if you don’t get the puck over his pads. However, there is a tendency to slide across on plays other goalies might try to beat on their skates, which is a natural tendency from that wider stance, so there is exposure in the top corners as well as a vulnerability to shots back the other way, which accounted for half those east-west goals.

Scrambles: Similarly, Stolarz uses his size, positioning and patience to excel behind the chaos many teams try to create around the net in the playoffs. He doesn’t chase pucks outside his posts as often as his peers, preferring instead to sit back knowing the puck has to come back through him, so it’s no surprise his numbers on these types of plays are better than average, even if that depth can create additional vulnerability on deflections off the bodies in front.

Low-high and wait: There is a tendency to push out at shooters from that conservative initial depth, especially after low-high passes, and waiting for that forward movement before making another play or pass makes it a lot harder for any goalie to recover laterally, even one who is able to push from the extremes of a low, wide stance as well as Stolarz.

Pad rebounds back in front: One of the few downsides of being blessed with a butterfly as wide as Stolarz is that low shots off the pads are more likely to end up back in front of the net rather than being angled into the corners, which played a role in several of the nine regular-season rebound goals and one of two in the first round against Ottawa.

Screens: Stolarz allowed 15 goals (21.1 percent) through traffic, slightly above the tracked average of 15 percent, and the Senators used screens to create four of their 14 goals in the first round, including the overtime winner in Game 4 and the opening goal in Game 5. Getting to the middle of the ice as a shooter makes it harder for Stolarz to easily look over screens in his tall stance and forces him to pick a side from a lower save stance, creating additional vulnerability to deflections and second chances if you get him pushing into an initial shot to the other side.

Paddle down and dead angles: David Perron’s Game 6 tying goal from below the goal line is the exception rather than the rule, as Stolarz admittedly got a little overzealous with his use of paddle down in that situation. Nonetheless, it will have the Panthers looking for similar mistakes with his use of the stick, and a couple more regular-season goals over the right shoulder from sharp angles while he was down in a similar RVH post-integration technique make it worth noting.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Florida Panthers

Bobrovsky is in his 15th NHL season, has won the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goalie twice and the Stanley Cup last season, so there aren’t a lot of secrets from former teammates, like Stolarz, defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson and forward Steven Lorentz, required to break down his game. When it comes to his performances the past three postseasons, it may not matter how much you think you know about his style anyways because at his best, Bobrovsky can sometimes feel impossible to beat. That does make it that much more important not to feed into his strengths when the stingy Panthers do give up chances.

Bobrovsky FLA shot chart

Lateral, quick and up: Bobrovsky’s skating and lateral movement is as good as any goalie in the NHL, so it’s no surprise he’s had success on plays and passes across the middle of the ice even during a down season statistically (by his standards). Of the 23 goals he surrendered on plays across the slot line, an imaginary line dividing the offensive zone from the goal line to the top of the face-off circles, 17 were finished by one-timers, emphasizing the importance of not giving him any extra time to get across. As the Tampa Bay Lightning discovered in the second period of Game 5 of the first round, when he robbed Erik Cernak and Gage Goncalves on consecutive side-to-side chances from point blank range to keep the Panthers ahead 3-2, it’s also important to get your shot up high, otherwise you risk a momentum-changing save. Against Bobrovsky, that means top half of the net, not just over the pad, because he excels at building vertical coverage over those pads with his glove and blocker, even in extended situations.

Find spots to make him move further: As well as he moves, there are certain tendencies that make it harder to cover off lateral distances. Bobrovsky will step outside his posts and square up on plays from the just above the face-off dots, which makes it harder for him to rotate and get all way back to the far post, so tip options wide of the net can be effective both to score and potentially opening gaps on second chances even if he gets to the first. Bobrovsky also squares up his rush retreats towards the boards and into an overlap of the post when plays get to bottom of the circle, especially on the blocker side, again making it harder to get across on a lateral play from those sharp angles, with 13-of-23 slot line goals below the hash marks.

Beware active stick: Getting low passes through is harder because of Bobrovsky’s active stick, so elevating attempts through the crease might get a few more to their intended target.

Far side off rush: Those rush retreats are typically short shuffles for Bobrovsky, but he doesn’t totally square up until it gets lower in the zone, staying more parallel to the goal line with the puck above the hash marks, which makes it easier to push across on a pass but can create vulnerability to far side shots, especially if the release is timed with a shuffle push.

Chaos and the five-hole: The numbers weren’t as high this season compared to the previous two, but Bobrovsky’s five-hole totals have typically been well above the tracked average for over 8,500 goals since this project started back in 2017. As well as he moves from his knees, Bobrovsky can still get a little overactive in scrambles, and even though it wasn’t as noticeable this season, 21 of the tracked goals were scored off broken plays, also well above the average of 14. Those lateral pushes in the butterfly require a goalie to lift his knee, making quick low shots back into the middle of his coverage an option worth trying in traffic and on rebounds.

Related Content