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Fantasy goalie, team win projections for 2018-19

Jones, Fleury benefit from recent additions; Hellebuyck leads list; predicting totals for standings

by Fantasy Hockey Staff @NHLFantasy / NHL.com

NHL.com has projected the win total of each fantasy-relevant goalie in 2018-19. These projections should be used as a basis for decision-making in all fantasy leagues, especially wins-only formats. For more fantasy hockey coverage, visit NHL.com/Fantasy.

 

MORE FANTASY PROJECTIONS: Forward points | 'D' points | Team previews | Cheat sheet

RANKINGS FOR 2018-19: Top 250 | Forwards (C | LW | RW) | D | Goalies

 

Fantasy writers Pete Jensen, Rob Reese and David Satriano have previewed each of the 31 teams this offseason. In the process, they have collaborated on win projections for each goalie, including projected starters, timeshare tandems and backups.

Goalie win estimates have been quantified based on factors including past production, team goalie situations, anticipated start volume, projected goal support (or lack thereof), injury history, sleeper upside, anticipated regression or bounce-back candidacy, age and contract status. Win totals should be viewed as safe estimates for this season and do not indicate each player's ceiling or floor.

Based on fantasy goalie win projections, NHL.com has also included estimated win totals for each team, sorted by division. Please note these are solely team win projections and do not take into account whether losses will come in regulation (no points) or overtime/shootout (one point), which could affect the final standings.

 

GOALIES PROJECTED FOR AT LEAST 30 WINS

NOTES: Projections have been made based on the assumption that each goalie will play close to a full season. Injuries can affect whether starting goalies meet or come close to their win estimate (INJ. indicates players with injury concerns). Any potential 2019 unrestricted free agents (*) are noted below. The order of projected win totals (highest to lowest) does not reflect order of rank in NHL.com's fantasy top 250 because those rankings take standard peripheral categories into account (goals-against average, save percentage, shutouts).

Because each team's overall scope (offseason moves, timeshare/backup situation, etc.) has been taken into account, goalies do not necessarily appear in order of talent but rather by their projected win totals for fantasy purposes. Win projections for all 31 teams add up to 1,271, the number of games that will be played in the 2018-19 season.

Connor Hellebuyck, WPG -- 42

Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL -- 41

Braden Holtby, WSH -- 40

Frederik Andersen, TOR -- 39

Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ* -- 37

Martin Jones, SJS -- 37

Pekka Rinne, NSH* -- 36

Tuukka Rask, BOS -- 36

Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK -- 35

Matt Murray, PIT -- 35

Jonathan Quick, LAK -- 34

Cam Talbot, EDM* -- 34

Jake Allen, STL -- 33

Devan Dubnyk, MIN -- 33

John Gibson, ANA -- 33

Ben Bishop, DAL -- 31

 

OTHER STARTERS AND TIMESHARE GOALIES

Mike Smith, CGY -- 29

Antti Raanta, ARI -- 28

Corey Crawford, CHI (INJ.) -- 27

Roberto Luongo, FLA -- 26

Carter Hutton, BUF -- 25

Henrik Lundqvist, NYR -- 25

Carey Price, MTL -- 24

Brian Elliott, PHI* -- 24

Petr Mrazek, CAR* -- 24

Robin Lehner, NYI* -- 24

Craig Anderson, OTT -- 22

Semyon Varlamov, COL* -- 21

Philipp Grubauer, COL -- 20

James Reimer, FLA -- 19

Cory Schneider, NJD (INJ.) -- 19

Keith Kinkaid, NJD* -- 19

Jacob Markstrom, VAN -- 19

Jimmy Howard, DET -- 17

 

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EASTERN CONFERENCE WIN TOTALS BASED ON PROJECTIONS

Metropolitan Division (8 teams):

WSH: Holtby (40) + Pheonix Copley / Ilya Samsonov (10) = 50 wins (49 last season; +1)

PIT: Murray (35) + Tristan Jarry / Casey DeSmith (13) = 48 wins (47 last season; +1)

CBJ: Bobrovsky (37) + Joonas Korpisalo (7) = 44 wins (45 last season; -1)

PHI: Elliott (24) + Michal Neuvirth / Carter Hart / Alex Lyon (20) = 44 wins (42 last season; +2)

CAR: Mrazek (24) + Scott Darling (15) = 39 wins (36 last season; +3)

NJD: Schneider (19) + Keith Kinkaid (19) = 38 wins (44 last season; -6)

NYI: Lehner (24) + Thomas Greiss (10) = 34 wins (35 last season; -1)

NYR: Lundqvist (25) + Alexandar Georgiev (6) = 31 wins (34 last season; -3)

TOTAL: 328

Video: Braden Holtby takes the No. 2 spot on the list

 

Atlantic Division (8):

TOR: Andersen (39) + Curtis McElhinney (12) = 51 wins (49 last season; +2)

BOS: Rask (36) + Jaroslav Halak (14) = 50 wins (50 last season; same)

TBL: Vasilevskiy (41) + Louis Domingue (9) = 50 wins (54 last season; -4)

FLA: Luongo (26) + James Reimer (19) = 45 wins (44 last season; +1)

BUF: Hutton (25) + Linus Ullmark (12) = 37 wins (25 last season; +12)

MTL: Price (24) + Antti Niemi (5) = 29 wins (29 last season; same)

DET: Howard (17) + Jonathan Bernier (10) = 27 wins (30 last season; -3)

OTT: Anderson (22) + Mike Condon (5) = 27 wins (28 last season; -1)

TOTAL: 316 wins

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE WIN TOTALS BASED ON PROJECTIONS

Central Division (7):

WPG: Hellebuyck (42) + Laurent Brossoit (8) = 50 wins (52 last season; -2)

NSH: Rinne (36) + Juuse Saros (12) = 48 wins (53 last season; -5)

STL: Allen (33) + Chad Johnson (14) = 47 wins (44 last season; +3)

DAL: Bishop (31) + Anton Khudobin (12) = 43 wins (42 last season; +1)

MIN: Dubnyk (33) + Alex Stalock / Andrew Hammond (9) = 42 wins (45 last season; -3)

COL: Varlamov (21) + Philipp Grubauer (20) = 41 wins (43 last season; -2)

CHI: Crawford (27) + Cam Ward (8) = 35 wins (33 last season; +2)

TOTAL: 306 wins

Video: Pekka Rinne lands at No. 7 on the list

 

Pacific Division (8):

SJS: Jones (37) + Aaron Dell (11) = 48 wins (45 last season; +3)

VGK: Fleury (35) + Malcolm Subban (10) = 45 wins (51 last season; -6)

LAK: Quick (34) + Jack Campbell / Peter Budaj (10) = 44 wins (45 last season; -1)

CGY: Smith (29) + David Rittich / Jon Gillies (11) = 40 wins (37 last season; +3)

ANA: Gibson (33) + Ryan Miller (8) = 41 wins (44 last season; -3)

EDM: Talbot (34) + Mikko Koskinen (4) = 38 wins (36 last season; +2)

ARI: Raanta (28) + Darcy Kuemper (7) = 35 wins (29 last season; +6)

VAN: Markstrom (19) + Anders Nilsson/Thatcher Demko (11) = 30 wins (31 last season; -1)

TOTAL: 321 wins

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