The Montreal Canadiens, who are the host team for the Draft on July 7 and 8, have the best odds of winning the Draft Lottery.
There have been some rule changes recently in regards to the Draft Lottery, so I'm here to clear up some of the confusion about the Canadiens' odds and explain the process behind the Lottery.
First, let's take a look at the Draft Lottery odds.
Draft Lottery Odds
1- Montreal Canadiens 18.5%
2 - Arizona Coyotes 13.5%
3 - Seattle Kraken 11.5%
4 - Philadelphia Flyers 9.5%
5 - New Jersey Devils 8.5%
6 - Chicago Blackhawks 7.5%
7 - Ottawa Senators 6.5%
8 - Detroit Red Wings 6.0%
9 - Buffalo Sabres 5.0%
10 - Anaheim Ducks 3.5%
11- San Jose Sharks 3.0%
12 - Columbus Blue Jackets\ 2.5%
13 - New York Islanders\ 2.0%
14 - Winnipeg Jets\ 1.5%
15 - Vancouver Canucks\ 0.5%
16 - Vegas Golden Knights\ 0.5%
\Cannot draft first overall
So, what does winning the Draft Lottery mean, exactly?
The team that wins the Draft Lottery will move up 10 spots in the Draft.
Winning, in this context, doesn't necessarily reward the first overall pick for every NHL team; it depends on where they finished in the standings.
If a team ranked 1 through 11 wins the Draft Lottery, they receive the first overall pick. The Canadiens are included in this group.
However, if a team ranked 12 through 16 wins the Draft Lottery, they move up 10 spots based on their ranking. In that case, the Canadiens automatically receive the first overall pick.
For example, if the Islanders win the Lottery, given they are 13th, they can only move up 10 spots and draft third overall. The rule applies to the Blue Jackets, Jets, Canucks and Golden Knights as well.
If any of the aforementioned teams win the lottery, the first overall pick will go to the Canadiens.
Therefore, even if the Canadiens have an 18.5 percent chance of winning the Lottery, they actually have a 25.5percent chance of drafting first overall, because some teams aren't eligible for the first overall pick.
