We’re 15 games into the NHL season, not quite the quarter pole but a time when you are starting to see the identity of a team take shape.
So far, the Blue Jackets are still searching for the right mix to finish out games, posting a 4-7-4 record to tie for last place in the Eastern Conference. There have been encouraging signs, though, with some young players taking big steps forward and the Blue Jackets holding leads in seven of their 11 losses on the season.
The other side of that, of course, is that the Blue Jackets have been in position to win but left points on the board far too often. Even winning half of those games would put the team right back in the thick of the race instead of sitting four points behind the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Head coach Pascal Vincent has preached building a fast, aggressive team that takes it to the opposition, and we’ve seen that in stretches throughout the campaign. If the Blue Jackets can keep getting more experience in the system and getting more comfortable, the tight losses could become tight wins at some point.
With that in mind, we’re taking a look at where the Blue Jackets are 15 games into the season – three things that have gone well, and three places the team needs to improve.
3 Up
1. The kids are all right: The Blue Jackets are a young team – three of the 15 youngest players in the NHL so far this season are Blue Jackets in Adam Fantilli, David Jiricek and Cole Sillinger – and they’re going to have less experience on the NHL roster than just about everyone they play this season.
That does matter, but let’s also be honest – some of the Blue Jackets’ youngest players have been among their best this season.
In particular, look at the line of Dmitri Voronkov, Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko, a trio that has less than 100 NHL games combined between them but has been producing and playing at a high level of late.
That trio was put together five games ago, and since then, MoneyPuck.com says the line has an expected goals percentage of 55.6 at 5-on-5. Voronkov is just one of three players in CBJ history to post at least seven points in his first nine NHL games; Marchenko had a career-best five-game point streak snapped last night; and Fantilli has scored in two straight games and looks every bit like the No. 3 overall pick in the draft.
“Voronkov comes from a winning background,” Vincent said when asked about the trio Sunday morning. “You look at his game, he's changing on time, he's making a lot of smart decisions, he has winning habits. Marchenko and him, there's chemistry, and I think Fantilli is a driver. So I think those two guys work really well together – different skill sets, but they complement each other, and I think Fantilli is in a position to take advantage of that but also add to those two with his speed and his physicality and his ability to win puck battles.
"I think there's a good mix between the three of them.”
2. Penalty kill success: The test Sunday night against the Rangers was about as big as they come – take on the NHL’s second-best power play, and also do it facing an extended 5-on-3 disadvantage while holding the lead in the third period.
But the Blue Jackets stared down the Rangers and handled the challenge for the entire 1:09, a feather in the cap of a unit that has been excellent of late. Columbus has now gone eight straight games without allowing a power-play goal, and teams have scored on just 2 of 35 chances since Oct. 20, a PK success rate of 94.3 that leads the NHL in that span.
Up front, much credit has to go to the killers like Alexandre Texier, Sean Kuraly, Cole Sillinger, Boone Jenner and Justin Danforth, while the defensive duo of Ivan Provorov and Erik Gudbranson has played big minutes with help from Zach Werenski and Damon Severson.
"We're doing a real good job on the PK,” Vincent said. “The routes are clear. Steve McCarthy is doing an amazing job on the pre-scout and teaching the PK, but he's been with those guys for three years now, so there's consistency. We're just tweaking stuff here and there, but now they're getting it, and we can see the results. And our goalies have been good.”
3. Solid goaltending: Speaking of, one of the big questions coming into the season was about the men between the pipes for the Blue Jackets.
Last season was the toughest of Elvis Merzlikins’ career, as he missed significant time with injuries, and when he was on the ice, he couldn’t put things together on the way to a 4.23 GAA and .876 save percentage.
Across the continent, Spencer Martin was in a similar spiral, hung out to dry on a struggling Vancouver team. With the Canucks facing their own share of goalie injuries, Martin was forced into a starting role with little support and had a 3.99 GAA and .871 save percentage.
But through 15 games, the two have delivered solid and occasionally spectacular netminding. The Jackets’ team save percentage of .895 is 17th in the 32-team league, and per MoneyPuck.com, Martin is saving 0.163 goals above expected per 60 minutes while Merzlikins is even with his expected performance after a standout 37-save showing Sunday night in New York.
Again, we’re talking league-average performances here, but given the struggles each had a season ago, the Blue Jackets have to be happy with that they’ve gotten so far. The ship has been steadied under new goaltending coach Niklas Backstrom, with the hope is the Jackets can move up further in the ranks as the season goes on.
“I think there's the chemistry between our two goalies and Nik and what they're trying to achieve,” Vincent said. “They're on the same page.”
3 Down
1. Holding leads: We referenced it in the open, but the Blue Jackets have held a lead in seven of the 11 losses this season. It’s a league in which comebacks have become the norm – nearly half of the games in October were won by a team that trailed at some point – but you can’t help but think about where the Jackets would be if they could have held a couple more leads.
At the same time, not all leads are created the same. As we just noted, scoring is up and teams are coming from behind more than ever before, so losing a second-period lead is going to happen sometimes.
But getting leads to the finish line when you’re up late in the game has to be a priority, and three times this season the Blue Jackets have led with five minutes to go only to give up the tying goal – and then lose in overtime. Those are gut-wrenching losses, not to mention the difference between being 7-7-1 and 4-7-4.
“To let one in with 11 seconds (left last night), it doesn’t feel good,” Sean Kuraly said postgame. “You’re 11 seconds away, and all you’re thinking is, ‘Was there one more battle that I could have won to get the puck out?’”
Vincent was happy with the way the Blue Jackets managed the third period last night – Columbus gave up just one high-danger chance to the Rangers at 5-on-5 in the period, per Natural Stat Trick – but the Rangers hemmed the Blue Jackets in late thanks to faceoff wins against Boone Jenner and Kuraly.
“We have to win some faceoffs,” Vincent said. “Those moments – special teams, 6-on-5 – these are key moments.”
2. Too many goals against: The Blue Jackets allowed more than four goals per game a season ago, the worst mark in franchise history. The return of Zach Werenski and the additions of Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov, as well as a style of play focused on clearing out the dangerous areas of the ice, were supposed to pay big dividends in that regard.
So far, there has certainly been improvement, with the Blue Jackets allowing 3.47 goals per game. That’s still just 24th in the league, though, and Columbus has ceded 18 tallies in the past four games (4.50 per game).
There was bound to be some transition as the Blue Jackets mixed and matched the personnel and changed systems, but the bigger issue to Vincent of late is not structure but individual mistakes that have led directly to opposing goals.
“It's almost like it's not a huge glaring issue, it’s just little small details of positioning,” Severson said. “If there was a common theme where we were getting scored on in the same spots every time, then that would be a big issue. But it’s kind of little issues here, little issues there. We can easily fix that.”
3. Finishing moves: Offensively, the Blue Jackets are posting 2.73 goals per game, 25th in the league. But according to MoneyPuck.com, Columbus is one of the most snakebitten teams in the NHL.
So far, in all situations, based on shot location data, the Blue Jackets have scored 4.76 goals less than expected, one of the worst marks in the league.
In other words, Columbus has had looks it hasn’t buried, and you can imagine just how much five more goals would help this team when six of the 11 games the team has lost this year have been by one goal.
The return of Patrik Laine, a natural finisher, should help, and seeing the shots of such youngsters as Fantilli and Marchenko find the twine more as the season goes on is another good sign. If Columbus returns toward the mean here, it should mean more goals – and more chances to earn wins.
