Feel good, play good: How Stars’ improved analytics have led to surge

The view of analytics in hockey is typically a blurry one.

Many coaches like to get as much information as possible, while many players simply like to see the game on the ice. But something most can agree on is they know when they are playing well and when they aren’t.

The Stars were 7-3-1 through their first 11 games, but not really happy with their overall game. Since going on a four-game winning streak, everyone seems much more content with the overall product. There’s good reason for that. Yes, Dallas has averaged 5.0 goals per game in the past four while getting just 2.82 in the first 11. Yes, the power play has exploded to more than double the amount of goals (seven) in the past four than what they had in the first 11 (three). But just as important, the lads in Victory Green have controlled the puck and play more, and that’s a good feeling.

“It’s a small sample size, but there’s obviously some good things happening,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said. “They’re never perfect, there’s always areas to improve, but I think our analytics are reflective of our record. They go hand in hand in a lot of those areas.”

Dallas was out-shot on average 29.0-33.5 in the first 11 games. They have out-shot the opposition 33.3-28.5 in the past four. The Stars won 49.1 percent of its draws in the first 11 and took 60.3 percent in the past four. Those are things that make a difference.

“For me, the calling card for any good team is how you get out of your own end and how you get possession in the other team’s end,” said center Matt Duchene.

While it’s easy to look back and see the change reflected in the numbers, there had to be a push to improve the way games were being played. Dallas knew it was getting off to slow starts, that it was chasing the game too much, that it needed the puck to do good things. So then the players and coaches combined to study video and make changes. The decisions were quicker, the passes were smarter, the battles were more intense.

“We can definitely be even better, but I do think we are holding onto the puck more and guys are making composed plays, and I think our forecheck has been better, so I do think we are heading in the right direction,” said forward Jason Robertson. “I still think our starts can be better, but you’re always looking to improve.”

The Stars have to. They are in the middle of a five-game homestand, but they have upcoming games against the Avalanche, the Rangers and the Golden Knights – three of the best teams in the NHL.

“We’re starting to play better for longer periods of time. I think you can feel that on the bench and I think the guys are feeling that too,” DeBoer said. “But we’re going to get a great test this week. The next three teams are legitimate top five Stanley Cup contending teams, so it’s a great test to see where our game is at now.”

Duchene’s line will definitely get tested. The new center has meshed with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment to create a trio that goes and gets pucks and then creates scoring chances. Duchene has four goals and four assists for eight points in the past four games and is plus-6 in that span. Seguin has two goals and four assists for six points and is also plus-6. Marchment just has a goal and an assist, but he is plus-5. Duchene said each player has a role and they are fitting in well together.

Duchene has gushed about Marchment’s stick work and his ability to create turnovers and said that is the first step in their line getting possession of the puck.

“I’ve told him, ‘You could be the best F1 in the league,’” Duchene said. “Get in, get the puck, get it back for us. You can do that better than Seggy and I and then we can do things that differ from you. You put it all together and it can work.”

Duchene has a view that sort of strips the analytics away and puts the experience in more personal terms.

“This game is pretty simple when you break it down: Once we get the puck, then you have fun with it,” Duchene said. “A lot of times when you do the basic stuff, the fun stuff comes organically.”

And for the Stars right now, that explains the analytics about as well as anything.

“I think we’re building our game,” DeBoer said. “I think it’s getting better and better.”

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.

Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika.