Brink of elimination or brand-new series: Which one will it be?

First Round: Game 4 (Stars lead series 2-1)

Teams that win Game 4 to take a 3-1 lead in an NHL best-of-seven playoff series win 89 percent of the time. Thar's one reason both the Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames will be on their toes Monday night in a pivotal matchup at American Airlines Center.
A win for Dallas, which is coming off a 4-2 win in Game 3, and the Stars have a strong hold on moving onto the next round. A win for the Flames, and they're all tied up with two of the next three games in Calgary. It's a lot of pressure.
"Every series is the same," Stars coach Rick Bowness said. "As the series goes on, it gets more intense. You just keep raising the level of intensity as much as you can. Calgary doesn't want to go down 3-1, we want to put them down 3-1. The intensity just automatically goes along with the predicament the team finds themselves in. We'll handle it, we'll be fine."
The Flames won Game 1, 1-0. The Stars won Game 2, 2-0, but added an empty netter. Dallas won Game 3, 4-2, and had an empty-net goal. The two teams have been great defensively, and each goaltender has been spectacular. So, both sides expect it to get even more intense on Monday.
"The longer you get into a series, the more intense it gets," said Stars forward Michael Raffl. "It's only going to go up from here and I can't wait for [Monday] and going forward."

The Flames are expected to be desperate in this game, as they've done some good things, but haven't been able to solve Jake Oettinger.
"Our group still feels really good, really confident in our ability," Calgary forward Blake Coleman said. "We win one game and we have home ice back, and that's the goal coming in here."
While Bowness said his team also believes it has more to give.
"We can play better, I'm convinced of that," Bowness said. "I know [Flames coach] Darryl [Sutter] is saying the same thing about his team. There isn't a lot of room out there right now. So, it's easy for us to say we can play better, but when you're on the ice and things are happening as fast as they are, it's a lot harder. Can we play better? Yeah. Are they going to let us play better? Probably not. We're trying to not let their team get going either."

What to watch

There's been a lot of extracurricular activity in the series, but neither coach is asking his players to back off. Bowness said he likes the edge, while Sutter said his players have to play hard and the officials have to officiate.
As for the players, they say they're having fun.
"I like how physical we've played," Stars captain Jamie Benn said.

And while Bowness has asked his players to play "whistle to whistle" and avoid the roughing penalties, he said he knows that's not always possible.
"Whistle to whistle, it's easy to say that, but it's hard when you're on the ice," Bowness said. "It's one thing to be in here talking about the game, but it's another to be out there playing the game and playing as hard as you can."
Bowness said the passion is what has made this a great series.
"They're not robots, you don't want to control that," he said. "Let them play, let the passion, let the emotion take over. You never want to take passion out of our game. That's what makes hockey so special."

Lineup update

Alexander Radulov returns to the lineup and Marián Studenič comes out.
Here are the expected lines for Game 4:
Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski
Raffl-Benn-Gurianov
Kiviranta-Seguin-Radulov
Namestnikov-Faksa-Glendening
Suter-Heiskanen
Lindell-Klingberg
Hanley-Hakanpaa
Oettinger
Wedgewood

Numbers

26-6-6

The Stars were 26-6-6 in one-goal games during the season, best in the NHL. All three games have been one-goal games except for two empty-net goals. Calgary was 10-4-11 in one-goal games. Calgary was 30-10 in games decided by three goals or more. Dallas was 12-16, indicating the Stars were more comfortable in close games.

13.6

The Flames rank third in the playoffs in giveaways per game at 13.6. Dallas is sixth at 11.0. Calgary during the regular season ranked fourth at 9.9. Dallas was ninth at 9.5.

Plus-432

Calgary forward Matthew Tkachuk ranked first on the Flames and fourth in the NHL during the regular season in SAT (shot differential at even strength) at plus-432. He ranks sixth on the Flames in the playoffs at plus-12.

He said it

"He's a smart kid." -- Benn when asked why Tkachuk hasn't taken him up on a challenge to fight so far in the series
A select number of tickets still remain for Game 4 on Monday at 8:30 p.m. CT. Get your tickets now!
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mike Heikais a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika.