Expectations for 2025-26: The whole Game 5 fiasco had a ton of repercussions for the Stars. Changing the coaching staff is significant and it could end up having an impact on Oettinger’s usage. Just as big, though, is how Oettinger responds after sitting on that memory all summer long. He received a mental boost from the support of management and his teammates, but the bottom line is he went 1-3 in the Oilers series with a 3.93 GAA and .853 save percentage. Now, the deeper analytics will tell you that his team was not great in front of him (five combined goals in the final four games), but the 26-year-old goalie definitely sees room for improvement going forward. Some fans get prickly when you use the word “elite” to describe Oettinger because his numbers are good, but not at the top of the NHL ranks. He was 12th in GAA at 2.59 and 12th in save percentage at .909 last season. That’s about where he sits in his career. Since 2020, Oettinger ranks 10th in GAA (2.52) and 14th in save percentage (.912). In the playoffs, he is 32-30 with a 2.59 GAA (6th) and a .913 save percentage (4th), but has not been able to get the Stars past the conference finals. He is very consistent, but does he need to take another step in order to become an “elite” starter? This year will be a great challenge for Oettinger in that regard. He starts the new contract and will be in the mix to be the starting goalie for Team USA at the 2026 Winter Olympics. While Connor Hellebuyck is the defending Vezina Trophy winner and considered the favorite to start for Team USA, his playoff woes continued last season and he lost the 4 Nations championship to Canada, so there is an opening for Oettinger to stake his claim. The big backstop ranked sixth in starts last season at 58 and played 3,410 minutes. That could decrease this season for a number of reasons – the condensed schedule caused by the Olympics, the new coaching staff’s approach to practice and rest, and the fact that backup goalie Casey DeSmith earned a lot of trust last year by going 14-8-2 with a 2.59 GAA and .915 save percentage. The NHL is becoming more of a two-goalie league, and even DeBoer said after the playoffs that he considered giving Oettinger a game off in the postseason, so that will be something to watch. Jeff Reese returns as goalie coach, so Oettinger’s routine should be pretty similar. The question then is: Can he take the next step? He’s at a place where he has a wealth of experience and should be at the physical peak of his career, so the opportunity is there for a very memorable season ahead.
