Golden Knights in best position to overcome slow start, statistics show

Behind the Numbers is a weekly series where NHL.com examines both player and team trends with an emphasis being placed on advanced statistics. This week we use American Thanksgiving, an unofficial milestone during the NHL season, to look at where teams are in the race for the Stanley Cup Playoffs compared with numbers from last season.

The five teams with the most points on Thanksgiving last season were the Tampa Bay Lightning (34 points), St. Louis Blues (33), Columbus Blue Jackets (29), Toronto Maple Leafs (29) and Winnipeg Jets (29). The only team not to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs from that group was the Blues, who missed by one point. When expanded to the top 10, two teams missed (New York Islanders, Blues), keeping the odds of making the postseason at 80 percent. Teams in the top 10 with most points this season as of Thursday are the Nashville Predators (33), Lightning (31), Maple Leafs (30), Buffalo Sabres (30), Minnesota Wild (28), Calgary Flames (27), Jets (26), Blue Jackets (26), Colorado Avalanche (26), Boston Bruins (26), San Jose Sharks (26), Montreal Canadiens (26) and New York Rangers (26).
Six of the 15 teams (Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers, Sharks, Avalanche, Wild and Anaheim Ducks) that were out of the playoff picture on Thanksgiving last year turned their seasons around to get in.
A look at the underlying statistics shows that of the 15 teams out of the playoff picture as of Thursday, the Vegas Golden Knights, who are tied for fifth in the Pacific Division, appear to have the best chance of reversing course. The Golden Knights have the NHL's lowest shooting-plus-save-percentage entering Thursday (957). The Penguins had the lowest SPSv (952 through 23 games) during the same span last season and went on to finish second in the Metropolitan Division.
If Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury's even-strength save percentage of .903 goes back up closer to his career mark (.920), the Golden Knights could make up ground quickly. Fleury's save percentage when Vegas has been shorthanded in 2018-19 (.882) is nearly identical to his career average (.883) so it's unlikely to see vast improvement there.

Another statistic that plays into the Golden Knights' favor is their top-10 penalty kill; they're tied for 10th at 81.4 percent. Seven of the top 10 teams in penalty-kill percentage during the same span last season made the playoffs. Defenseman
Nate Schmidt
, who was suspended for the first 20 games of the season, was fourth on the Golden Knights in penalty-kill ice time last season (143:49). His return to the lineup earlier this week could help solidify Vegas' chances at keeping a top-10 penalty kill for the remainder of the season.
Schmidt isn't the only Golden Knights player to have missed significant time this season; center Paul Stastny played three games before sustaining a lower-body injury but could return in December. His return should help boost the Golden Knights' defensive zone face-off percentage (47.3 percent; tied for 24th); Stastny has won 53.7 percent of his faceoffs in 827 NHL games. It's likely that with Stastny in the lineup, the Golden Knights will be able to better control possession from the back end, which could help to lighten Fleury's load.
It's easy to point to the lack of scoring as the main issue for the Golden Knights; their goals-per-60 average of 2.58 (28th) is significantly lower than their average of 3.55 through Thanksgiving (Nov. 23) last season, which ranked third. Their drop in scoring can be explained by a decrease in their overall shooting percentage, from 10.1 last season (tied for fifth) to 7.9 (tied for 28th) this season. But with Fleury potentially seeing a net-positive result from the return of Schmidt and Stastny, the Golden Knights could find themselves among the top 10 teams in 5-on-5 save percentage. Eight of the top 10 teams in that category last season qualified for the playoffs (Predators, Ducks, Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, Lightning, Leafs, Columbus Blue Jackets, Wild).