Unmasked: Shesterkin of Rangers most likely to score goal

It's too bad New York Rangers No. 1 Igor Shesterkin lost a game of rock, paper, scissors to New York Islanders counterpart Ilya Sorokin for the right to shoot at the Discover NHL Tendy Tandem at the 2023 NHL All-Star Skills presented by DraftKings Sportsbook this past weekend.

If he had shot, it would have been a great chance to prove he is the goalie most likely to next score a goal in the NHL, according to many other goalies.
Instead, Linus Ullmark of the Boston Bruins scored on Feb. 25 against the Vancouver Canucks, becoming the first goalie in the history of the Bruins to score and the first in the NHL since Pekka Rinne of the Nashville Predators in 2020.
Ullmark was not one of the goalies picked as the next one to score on a list formulated by his peers.
Shesterkin wasn't the unanimous choice in an informal locker room polling of goalies, but was near the top of most lists, narrowly edging out Tristan Jarry of the Pittsburgh Penguins as the name mentioned most when asked who is likely to become the 13th goalie to score a goal in the NHL, and the eighth to do so by shooting the puck into the net.
"Shesterkin can chuck it big time," said Penguins backup Casey DeSmith, who listed the 27-year-old alongside his playing partner. "And he likes to try it and he's got the confidence."
Alex Nedeljkovic of the Detroit Red Wings, who has scored a goal in the ECHL and American Hockey League, was the only other goalie to get multiple mentions but is currently playing in the AHL. There were several goalies mentioned once, including Edmonton Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner, who scored in the Western Hockey League, and hit the even smaller target during the Tendy Tandem event.
That likely speaks to an increase in the number of goalies with the skill to make the shot, but Shesterkin may be top of mind for most because of recent near misses, including by less than a foot against the Ottawa Senators on Feb. 20, 2022, and again by not much more than that against the Florida Panthers on Jan. 23.
As DeSmith noted, Shesterkin isn't shy about trying to score, which is another reason he seems likely to do it next.
"You've got to have [courage]," said Montreal Canadiens goalie Jake Allen. "A lot of [courage]."
You also need opportunities to take a shot at the empty net. While that has gone up with the trend of pulling the goalie earlier in games with a multiple-goal deficit -- Shesterkin's attempt against Florida was with 5:25 left in the third period and a 5-2 lead -- not all teams have a late lead as often, and not every goalie has the green light to go for the empty net.
Allen is asked to play the puck less in Montreal's system than he did earlier in his career with the St. Louis Blues but admits he might look for more chances.
"It's got to be the perfect opportunity, but it's always been a goal of mine before I retire to get a goal," he said. "When you feel you're getting to the end of your career and your time is up, I'll probably be going for the empty net every time. That'd be quite a cherry on top."
It was for Rinne, who scored on Jan. 9, 2020, against the Chicago Blackhawks in his penultimate season in the NHL. Rinne was the last NHL goalie to score, bringing the total goals scored by a goalie to 15 (including two in the Stanley Cup Playoffs): eight were shot into the net, and the other seven were credited to a goalie who last touched the puck before the other team put it into its own goal.
Rinne admitted in this space two years before scoring that he thought about it "constantly," even if the Predators only had a one-goal lead when the other team pulled its goalie.
Not all goalies have that leeway. Where two-goal leads used to mean it was OK to shoot for the empty net because if a mistake cost you a goal, at least it wouldn't tie the game, some goalies are more hesitant to try even then because of all the multiple-goal comebacks this season. Not every goalie can gamble on sparking a rally with a puck-handling mistake.
"The risk is too high," said Vancouver Canucks goalie Spencer Martin, who "tried a bunch" and once came close to scoring in the AHL. "But I'm pretty much done trying."
That may help explain why we haven't seen more empty-net goals by goalies.
It certainly isn't for a lack of ability to handle the puck.
Jarry is 11th among active NHL goalies with 10 assists in 186 games, less than half the games played of any goalie ahead of him on that list. He already scored in the AHL with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Nov. 14, 2018. It was one of five empty-net attempts Jarry said he tried that season in the AHL, but he seems to be taking fewer chances in the NHL.
"Guys can really zing it, but you've got to do it on a repeatable basis," said ex-NHL goalie Marty Turco, who was one of the best puck-handling goalies when he played from 2000-2012.
Turco finished tied for 22nd all-time among goalies with 22 assists in 543 NHL games but was known as more of a passer, and said he only tried four times to hit an empty net.
After watching goalies shoot the puck at his 14-year-old son's games, however, he's surprised that more haven't scored in the NHL in recent years.
"A little bit just because they are so good with the puck," said Turco, who also picked Shesterkin to score next. "They can fire it and they have a perfect (composite) stick every time. When I played, I had to change my game based on the batch of wood sticks that came in that month because they weren't as consistent."
There's another generation of goalies coming that could increase the likelihood of more goalie goals Carolina Hurricanes goalie Pytor Kochetkov scored a goal for the Chicago Wolves of the AHL on March 3. Anaheim Ducks prospect Lukas Dostal scored in the AHL last season on March 2, St. Louis Blues prospect Joel Hofer scored in the AHL playoffs on May 13, and Minnesota Wild prospect Jesper Wallstedt scored in the AHL as a rookie this season on Nov. 12.
They've all shown they've got the shot. Time will tell if they still get to take it in the NHL.