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TORONTO -- Even after losing 4-2 to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference First Round on Thursday, the Toronto Maple Leafs still have a 3-2 lead in the best-of-7 series.

And they still have home-ice advantage for Game 7, which would be played, if necessary, here at Scotiabank Arena on Monday. Should they win Game 6 at Amalie Arena in Tampa on Saturday (7 p.m. ET; TBS, SN, CBC, TVAS, BSSUN), they'll eliminate the Lightning and it will be a moot point.
That's all fine and good.
But dig deeper, and there is plenty of reason for concern for the Maple Leafs and their beleaguered fan base.
Here's why:
Since losing Game 7 to the Boston Bruins in their 2013 Eastern Conference First Round, they are 0-11 in games in which they had the opportunity to eliminate an opponent.
Of course, their core players of today -- forwards Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, William Nylander and defenseman Morgan Rielly -- did not play in that Boston series. Fair enough.
But the fact remains that group of four players is now 0-10 in those situations.
Where is the killer instinct that is key for successful runs in the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
To that end, Reilly was asked if he wondered what it would take to win one of these elimination games.
"Always," the Maple Leafs defenseman replied. "Until we do."
RELATED: [Complete Maple Leafs vs Lightning series coverage]
There's the rub.
Rielly has arguably been Toronto's best player in this series. The 29-year-old had four assists in Game 2, scored the overtime goal in Game 3, forced overtime with a late goal in Game 4, and opened the scoring in Game 5.
And yet, even he has no answer on what it takes to close out this series. Or any series, for that matter.
If he doesn't have a solution, who does?
Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe has repeatedly stated that this team, this series, this vibe, feels "different" for a franchise that has lost its opening series in six consecutive years and hasn't advanced since 2004.
And there has been a cautious buy-in from the skeptical fan base, from those gathered outside the arena to watch the game on a big screen at Maple Leafs Square, to the 19,663 shoehorned inside Scotiabank Arena who started rocking the joint when the teams took the ice for warmups.
When Rielly opened the scoring at 5:46 of the first period to give Toronto a 1-0 lead, the noise level inside the rink was the loudest it's been all year. Outside, the swarm of fans were going bonkers.
Not for long.
Just 26 seconds later, all that momentum, that juice, that adrenalin, that volume, was siphoned out of the arena when Lightning center Anthony Cirelli was left all alone in front of Ilya Samsonov and scored on a rebound to tie it 1-1.
The Maple Leafs had held the lead for less than half a minute. It would prove to be the only one they would have in Game 5.
Coaches from minor hockey house leagues to veteran NHL bench bosses will tell you the most important shift in any game is the one following a goal. In that regard, Toronto didn't hold up its end.
"That goal was a turning point," Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. "Who knows where the game goes if he didn't score there?"
But he did.
And instead of putting the dagger into a Lightning team that has reached the Stanley Cup Final three consecutive times, the Maple Leafs let them off the mat.
Tampa Bay's championship pedigree took over from there.
Michael Eyssimont put the Lightning ahead 2-1 at 4:23 of the second period on a shot Samsonov should have stopped. More alarming about the play was the way defenseman Justin Holl turned away from the Tampa Bay forward, allowing him to blast past him and skate in on the Toronto goalie.
The Lightning led the rest of the way.
Holl was minus-3 in 12:33 Thursday and has been on the ice for 14 of Tampa Bay's 20 goals in the series, including nine in 5-on-5 situations. On one hand, Keefe defended the 31-year-old, saying there were more players on the ice in those situations. On the other hand, he said, "those guys have to be better."
Yes, they do.
Rielly also talked about the need to improve when it comes to clearing the Maple Leafs zone. They seem sluggish, almost timid at times, as though they have angst about making a potential mistake rather than moving pucks confidently and quickly out of their own end.
"We need to be good in our own zone," he said. "We need to be fast. It starts with our defense."
Matthews said the forwards need to be better too when it comes to closing the gap between them and the defense.
"It's all five guys," he said. "We need to be at a good place and have communication. Their forecheck has been very aggressive."
Translation: The Lightning had much more offensive-zone time than the Maple Leafs in Game 5 and, for that matter, for much of this series.
Make no mistake: The Maple Leafs fought until the end and closed the gap to 3-2 until Alex Killorn's empty-net goal with five seconds remaining sealed the deal. They've won both previous games in Tampa, including Game 4 despite trailing 4-1 in the third period. And they still have two chances to get one win.
"We have confidence in our group," Rielly said. "No doubt they'll come out hard.
"We believe in us."
Maybe.
But until they can back up that belief by winning one of these elimination games, an entire city will continue to have doubts.
And rightly so.