Mailbag: Kinkaid, Schneider make decision tough for Devils
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
Do you think the Devils should be playing Keith Kinkaid as the starter for their upcoming road trip/near future given he's been outperforming Cory Schneider? -- @sammylammyyk
This idea merits consideration. The Devils play at the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday (10 p.m. ET; ATTSN-RM, MSG+, NHL.TV), the second game of a six-game road trip that started with a win at the Nashville Predators on Saturday. Devils coach John Hynes has an obligation to his players to use the lineup that gives them the best chance to win the game that night. Schneider has a better pedigree than Kinkaid and is the Devils' No. 1 goalie. But Kinkaid is coming off a strong 34-save performance in the 3-2 shootout win against the Predators at Bridgestone Arena, where the Predators are 24-7-4. Schneider has an .887 save percentage in three games since returning to the lineup from his groin injury. There certainly is a legitimate case to start Kinkaid against Vegas. It's dicey because Hynes can't alienate Schneider in this process, but we've seen backups get consecutive starts in the past. If it can happen to Boston Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask and New York Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist, it certainly can happen to Schneider. But let's also be realistic here and note that the Devils are going to need Schneider to return to playing like a No. 1 if they're going to get into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I don't think they can ride Kinkaid for too long. He already has surpassed his previous NHL highs in starts (27) and games played (29).
Should Evgeni Malkin be in the Hart Trophy conversation? -- @stevepat17
Yes. A thousand times yes. It seems the Hart Trophy conversation changes daily, or at least weekly. For the longest time it was all about Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov, who is still it and was NHL.com's leader for the
Hart Trophy at the three-quarter mark of the season
.
Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon jumped into the conversation around late November, got injured in early February, missed eight games, fell out of the discussion, returned, and now is back in it. Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron was getting some Hart Trophy love but has been out since Feb. 25 because of a fractured right foot. His name doesn't come up us much anymore, especially considering Bruins forward Brad Marchand has been terrific in Bergeron's absence, leading to some Hart Trophy love for Marchand.
Devils left wing Taylor Hall might be the best candidate for the Hart Trophy considering how much he's meant to his team. New Jersey wouldn't be close to a Stanley Cup Playoff berth without him. I've heard some buzz recently about Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid. That would be something considering the Oilers aren't going to be a playoff team, but McDavid has been exceptional, especially lately, so I understand why his name would come up even though I don't think he should win it. Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin has been mentioned in the conversation more than a few times too.
All of that brings me to Malkin, who for unfathomable reasons isn't getting a lot of buzz for the Hart Trophy. I don't get it at all. The Pittsburgh Penguins center has 87 points, four behind Kucherov for the League lead. He has 39 goals, which was three behind Ovechkin's League-leading 42. Nobody has more than Malkin's 32 goals and 66 points since Dec. 1. He reached those totals in 44 games, one fewer than Philadelphia Flyers forward Claude Giroux, who is second with 54 points (14 goals, 40 assists).
Since Dec. 1, Malkin has at least one point in 35 of those 44 games and at least two points in 19. The Penguins are 27-16-1 since Dec. 1. It's crazy that Malkin isn't getting more attention for the Hart Trophy when he's not far off from being the leader for the Rocket Richard Trophy and the Art Ross Trophy.
In recent years we have usually seen five or less 80-plus point-getters. We are on pace to see 15-plus this year. What's up with that? -- @UlfsMinion
To begin to try to explain the uptick, let me show you a season-by-season look at three League-wide statistics: average shots on goal per game, average goals per game, and average save percentage (courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau), all through games Monday:
Shots on goal per game:
2014-15: 29.92
2015-16: 29.73
2016-17: 30.22
2017-18: 31.98
Save percentage:
2014-15: .911 (.915 excluding empty-net goals)
2015-16: .910 (.915 excluding empty-net goals)
2016-17: .910 (.913 excluding empty-net goals)
2017-18: .909 (.913 excluding empty-net goals)
Goals per game:
2014-15: 5.32
2015-16: 5.34
2016-17: 5.45
2017-18: 5.81
As you can see, shots on goal per game are up and save percentage is down, so naturally we've seen a rise in goals this season compared to the past three seasons. I thought looking back three seasons was a good enough sample size for this exercise. With goals up, obviously that means individual production will be up too. You'd expect that to come from the best players, and it is.
There are six 80-point players entering play Wednesday (Kucherov, Malkin, McDavid, Giroux, MacKinnon and Johnny Gaudreau of the Calgary Flames). Another 14 players were on pace for at least 80. Last season, there were seven players who finished with at least 80 points, and five each in 2015-16 and 2014-15. There were seven in 2013-14. So, yes, it's jarring that we could potentially have 20 players score at least 80 points this season. But the decline in save percentage along with the uptick in shots suggests we have more goals and, therefore, more players with better production.
I also want to point you to what former NHL goaltending coach Jim Corsi has been writing about this season in our Coach's Room articles:
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Net accessibility caused by unscripted offensive-zone play
.
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How teams are generating offense in shorthanded situations
.
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How teams are beating collapsing defenses
.
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How teams are using their defensemen to activate the offense
.
These are all good reads that explain analytically reasons scoring is up this season. It all leads back to your question on why we're seeing more 80-point players.
Do you think Roberto Luongo is a candidate for the Vezina Trophy or has he not played enough games? -- @sun_puck
Luongo has played well enough to help the Florida Panthers get back into the playoff race, but he's not a Vezina Trophy candidate. You brought up the games played and that absolutely factors into my opinion here. He is tied for 41st in games played with 26 and tied for 35th in wins with 14. We can be impressed with his .926 save percentage and 2.61 goals-against average, fifth and 18th among NHL goalies to play at least 25 games, but we can't overlook that he's played fewer games than some backups, or that he hasn't even played the most games on his team; James Reimer has played 36. Luongo missed 27 because of a lower-body injury from Dec. 7-Feb. 14. But he's 8-2-1 with a .924 save percentage and 2.60 GAA in 11 games since returning Feb. 17. He's as much of a reason for the Panthers' resurgence and push up the standings into playoff contention as anybody else. But he's not a Vezina Trophy candidate.
Thoughts on if Zdeno Chara and the Bruins will reach an agreement to keep him in Boston for another year or so? -- @Tellier37
My question in response is, can the Bruins spend the money they would give Chara on a younger player and wind up with as good or better results? It's not easy to answer, because even though Chara turns 41 Sunday, he leads the Bruins with an average ice time of 23:00 per game. Chara is a huge part of the Bruins success considering the minutes he plays and the players he plays against. He also has helped rookie Charlie McAvoy make the transition into being a top-pair defenseman.
Chara is one of the strongest players in the NHL and he's in terrific shape. If he wants to play, he can and will. However, the Bruins must decide if they want a 41-year-old defenseman in their lineup, and, more importantly, at what price. If Chara wants a multiyear contract, it might be enough for Boston to let him become an unrestricted free agent. If he's good with a one-year contract, I think they can get it done easily. But the Bruins might also consider moving on from Chara entirely, especially because they're deep at defenseman with McAvoy and prospects Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon on the way. This is a tough question to answer.
What's the next step for the New York Rangers this summer? Do you think "King Henrik" chases the Cup elsewhere? -- @briantodd34
Lundqvist has a full no-movement clause. The Rangers haven't indicated a desire to trade him. He hasn't indicated a desire to leave. Lundqvist loves New York. He loves the Rangers. He loves being a Ranger. He loves everything about the organization. He doesn't like the season they're having, but as far as I can tell he's on board with the decisions made by management to trade key pieces and begin what they hope will be a quick rebuild. His plan, as of right now, is to be the Rangers' No. 1 goalie next season.
I think general manager Jeff Gorton did a good job getting the assets he got in the trades he made before the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline. Forwards Ryan Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov should be part of the Rangers' future. I believe Gorton has another move or two to make this offseason, perhaps trading forward Mats Zuccarello or buying out defenseman Marc Staal's contract. Those remain to be seen, but the Rangers have high draft picks (three in the first round), quality prospects, and NHL players who already are contributing. The Rangers must determine if Alain Vigneault will return as coach or if they want to go in another direction with their young team. That's going to be the biggest decision they make after this season. They'll have some space under the NHL salary cap, so ideally they will be able to bolster the lineup without taking spots from prospects who might be ready, among them potentially forwards
Lias Andersson
and
Filip Chytil
, and defenseman
Libor Hajek
.
