State Your Case: Can Campbell help Oilers make deeper run in playoffs?

Jack Campbell is the new No. 1 goalie for the Edmonton Oilers after signing a five-year, $25 million contract with them July 13. The 30-year-old was 31-9-6 with a 2.64 goals-against average, .914 save percentage and five shutouts in 49 games (47 starts) for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season. He was 3-4 with a 3.15 GAA and .897 save percentage in seven Stanley Cup Playoff games.

He goes to a team that has two of the most dynamic goal-scorers in the NHL in forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but one that has yet to reach the Stanley Cup Final with them. The Oilers reached the Western Conference Final last season but were swept by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche in the best-of-7 series, allowing a total of 22 goals in the four games. The Oilers scored 13 goals in the series, including six in Game 1 and five in Game 4, but could not get a win.
So, will the arrival of Campbell give the Oilers the goaltending they need to make an even deeper run in the playoffs?
That's the question before NHL.com writers Mike Zeisberger and Tracey Myers in this installment of State Your Case.
Zeisberger: In the past two Stanley Cup Playoffs for the Maple Leafs Campbell had a goals-against average of 2.45, a .915 save percentage and two shutouts. The fact that he had a 6-8 record and the Maple Leafs lost in the first round each time had more to do with their inability to score in the clutch than any wobbly play from Campbell. Consider this: in Game 7 losses to the Montreal Canadiens in 2021 and Tampa Bay Lightning in 2022, Toronto scored once in each game. That's not Campbell's fault. Now he brings those impressive numbers to an Edmonton Oilers team that reached the Western Conference Final last season with No. 1 goalie Mike Smith posting a 3.37 GAA and .913 save percentage. Smith struggled in the conference final against the Avalanche, allowing 19 goals on 149 shots in the four-game sweep. With McDavid and Draisaitl leading the way, the Oilers don't need their goalie to win games on his own, just keep them competitive. In that regard, Campbell is already an improvement over Smith for an Oilers squad that was one step away from the Final and can definitely go all the way with Campbell.
Myers: I give full marks to Campbell for the work he's done with the Maple Leafs and I can understand the optimism the Oilers have knowing he'll be in net. But the missing piece to win the Stanley Cup? I'm still skeptical on that front. For me, it's not so much about the goalie. I'm still concerned with the defense in front of him. The Oilers allowed an average of 32.3 shots per game last season, 12th in the NHL. That number jumped to 38.9 per game, third in the League, in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That's keeping your goalie a little too busy in my opinion. I'm also concerned about their penalty kill, which was 17th in the League at 79.4 percent. That's a drop from the Maple Leafs penalty kill that Campbell played behind last season which was eighth in the NHL at 82.1 percent. Does Campbell help improve those numbers? Sure, the goalie is that last line of defense. But the first lines of defense still have me hesitant.
Zeisberger: Good point, Tracey. There are legitimate questions regarding the Oilers defense. But when you look at the top four there is reason for optimism, especially after the re-signing of defenseman Brett Kulak, whom they acquired before the trade deadline last season. Darnell Nurse has blossomed into a legitimate No. 1 NHL defenseman; Evan Bouchard has a high ceiling; Cody Ceci enjoyed arguably his best NHL season; and Tyson Barrie remains a solid power-play specialist. Is that good enough to win a Stanley Cup? In my humble opinion, no. Knowing general manager Ken Holland for three decades like I have, don't be surprised if he pulls the trigger to improve the blue line at the NHL trade deadline. The one area he won't have to address is goaltending -- the most difficult position to fill. And here's the thing too: unlike Smith, he's fully capable of winning a game on his own if needed. Given the Oilers firepower up front, that shouldn't be too often.
Myers: OK, so we agree on the defense and maybe Holland does something to add to it. But what if he doesn't? What if he does and the move doesn't click? Sorry to be a downer (I'm usually quite positive, as friends will tell you) but I'm still concerned Campbell will have too much on his shoulders. He definitely gives the Oilers a great presence in goal and yes, you're right: he'll win some games on his own. Guys like Nurse and Barrie are good and Bouchard's upside is encouraging. But it's not enough to convince me he makes the Cup contenders. I also wonder how much of a buzzsaw the playoffs will be in the Western Conference. I expect the Avalanche to be there again. The Calgary Flames roster looks good after adding Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri. I expect the Los Angeles Kings to be better. If the Oilers defense shows improvement, I may change my mind. Until then, skepticism reigns.