Statistical breakdown of four leading Cup contenders

As we round the corner into the 2016 Honda NHL All-Star Game and toward the homestretch of the season, who has the inside track for the Stanley Cup?
A look behind the numbers can identify the top teams, and what they need to do in order to set themselves apart from the pack.

Based on the average of three different statistical models, the Washington Capitals have a 29.9 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history. Their primary weapons are strong goaltending and the NHL's best power play, but they could be vulnerable with regards to puck possession.
Team SportClub Stats Hockey Reference Playoff Status Average
Washington 37.0% 18.6% 34.0% 29.9%
Chicago 11.5% 10.6% 11.0% 11.0%
Dallas 10.6% 10.4% 8.0% 9.7%
Los Angeles 7.9% 6.1% 10.0% 8.0%
Any Other Team 33.0% 54.3% 37.0% 41.4%
Puck possession is exactly where the Los Angeles Kings shine. They are a team without any obvious weaknesses, and won the Stanley Cup in 2012 and 2014.
This season the Chicago Blackhawks may not be as dominant as the version that won the Stanley Cup in 2010, 2013 and 2015, but they remain among the League leaders in most statistical categories.
The Dallas Stars are the wild card. They have missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, but they have become one of the League's most dangerous teams offensively, and could win their first Stanley Cup since 1999 with improved defensive play, especially in net and when shorthanded.
Puck possession
While there is no exact measurement of how much time each team spends in control of the puck, it can be estimated using SAT Close, which is each team's share of all of the shot attempts in a game, ignoring those that occurred while chasing or protecting a late-game lead.
As previously explored (Link: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=782338
), this statistic has a close relationship with puck possession and can be a strong predictor of which teams make the playoffs, including those who make deep runs.
This perspective favors the Kings, who are leading the League for the third time in four seasons, and the Stars.
Puck Possession Metrics, 2015-16
Team SAT Close Rank
Los Angeles 57.7% 1st
Dallas 54.8% 2nd
Chicago 51.0% 10th
Washington 49.4% 16th
The Blackhawks have finished in the League's top four in four of the past five seasons, but the aging of their core players and the gradual loss of key players because of salary cap restrictions has resulted in a slight drop-off in their numbers.
The only team for which possession could be a concern is the Washington Capitals. Despite the summer acquisition of strong puck-possession players like Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie, the Capitals essentially play even with their opponents, shot-wise.
But should this really be a concern? Given that over 16 percent of their shots are taken by Alexander Ovechkin, and that virtually all of the opposing shots are faced by Vezina front-runner Braden Holtby, they can capitalize -- no pun intended -- on a far greater number of their opportunities than their opponents.
In order to get an accurate read of each team's performance level these possession numbers are all recorded in even-strength situations only. But that approach ignores the 20 percent of the games that are spent with one of the teams playing with a man-advantage. In these situations, all four teams have highly effective power plays but could make improvements on the penalty kill.
As the table below demonstrates, Washington's power play is downright dominant, as it has been for the two preceding seasons. Whether it's the number of shot attempts the Capitals generate per 60 minutes or the percentage of power-play opportunities on which they score, Washington is the League's best from any statistical perspective.
Team Power Play Metrics, 2015-16
Team Shot Attempts per 60 Minutes League Rank Power Play Percentage League Rank
Washington 119.1 2nd 27.1 1st
Chicago 81.9 29th 22.1 3rd
Dallas 102.4 9th 21.3 4th
Los Angeles 115.3 3rd 21.2 6th
In terms of power play percentage, the Blackhawks are third in the League, but rank second-to-last in generating shot attempts. That means their success is closely related to their ability to score on a League-high 17.2 percent of their power-play shots, rather than their success in creating opportunities.
In terms of preventing scoring opportunities while down a player, Los Angeles is the only team of the four that doesn't rank in the bottom fifth of the League. Strong shorthanded save percentages have kept Washington and Chicago among the League's top 10 in penalty-killing percentage, but Dallas ranks poorly regardless of the metric chosen.
Team Penalty-Killing Metrics, 2015-16
Team Shot Attempts Allowed per 60 Minutes League Rank Penalty Killing Percentage League Rank
Washington 103.6 24th 84.9 5th
Chicago 105.9 29th 82.4 9th
Los Angeles 97.5 12th 82.2 10th
Dallas 105.0 27th 79.9 22nd
All of these perspectives have been based primarily on shot-based statistics, but what about the ability to prevent shot attempts from going in?
Three of these four teams have great goaltending, which means they can allow their opponents a few extra shots per game and still emerge victorious.
The lone exception is the Stars. Despite dedicating a League-leading $10.4 million in cap space to its goaltending, Dallas ranks 20th in overall save percentage, and 24th in even-strength situations.
Team Save Percentages, 2015-16
Team Even-Strength League Rank Overall League Rank
Washington .936 4th .926 1st
Chicago .934 8th .926 2nd
Los Angeles .933 10th .921 4th
Dallas .921 24th .910 20th
Less reliable goaltending puts extra pressure on Dallas' top scorers, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. The statistic used to measure consistency in nets is quality starts, which are awarded in any game where the starting goalie posted a League-average save percentage or higher.
From this perspective, Dallas' scoring has had to perform in overdrive in 26 of its 48 games. There have even been nine games this season in which the Stars' goaltenders failed to stop 85 percent of the shots, which is termed a blown start, and reduces a team's chances of winning below 10 percent.
Quality Starts, 2015-16
Team Games Quality Starts Blown Starts Quality Start Percentage League Rank
Chicago 52 35 5 67.3 2nd
Los Angeles 46 27 7 58.7 6th
Washington 45 26 4 57.8 8th
Dallas 48 22 9 45.8 25th
If there's a bright side in Dallas, it's that the Stars are resilient to injuries in net, since they aren't as reliant on lights-out goaltending, and since Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen each have considerable experience as starting goalies.
In contrast, a serious injury to Holtby of the Capitals, Corey Crawford of the Blackhawks or Jonathan Quick of the Kings could have serious repercussions to each team's Stanley Cup chances.
Dallas isn't immune to injuries elsewhere in its lineup; an injury to Benn or Seguin would be very difficult to overcome. Likewise, injuries to players like Patrick Kane in Chicago, Drew Doughty in Los Angeles, or Ovechkin in Washington could knock any of these teams off course.
In the end, there is a better-than-even chance that one of Washington, Chicago, Dallas or Los Angeles will win the Stanley Cup this season. Among those four, it could come down to which team leverages its strengths while addressing its weaknesses, and manages to avoid critical injuries.