Hurricanes' playoff push fueled by rise in shooting percentage

The Carolina Hurricanes are in the hunt to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since the 2008-09 season.

Carolina (42-27-7) holds the first wild card into the playoffs from the Eastern Conference entering its game against the Washington Capitals at PNC Arena on Thursday (7 p.m. ET; ESPN+, FS-CR, NBCSWA, NHL.TV). The Hurricanes are one point ahead of the Montreal Canadiens, who hold the second wild card, and three points ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Montreal has played one more game than Carolina and Columbus. The Hurricanes are four points behind the New York Islanders for third place in the Metropolitan Division with a game in hand.
Carolina's climb in the standings has been a team effort, fueled by a 26-10-2 record since Jan. 1. The underlying numbers suggest the 38-game sample is not an outlier.
Carolina has been getting the better of shot differentials throughout the season, earning 54.71 percent of 5-on-5 shot attempts, second behind the San Jose Sharks. Controlling play tends to lead to positive results in the long run, but it took time for percentages to swing in Carolina's favor.

Since 2009-10, three teams have finished an NHL season with a 5-on-5 shooting percentage of less than 6.0 percent: the 2014-15 Arizona Coyotes, (5.7 percent), the 2012-13 Florida Panthers (5.8 percent) and the 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres (5.8 percent).
Through the end of December, the Hurricanes were shooting 5.5 percent at 5-on-5, an abnormally low percentage. This suggested their fortunes would improve unless they were the worst-shooting team of the past decade. Carolina might not have an established group of scorers, especially after trading forward Jeff Skinner to Buffalo in August, but there was little to suggest the Hurricanes would be historically bad at putting the puck in the net.
To be fair, the Hurricanes have not been a strong team when it comes to team shooting percentage. From 2013-14 through 2017-18, the Hurricanes had a 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 6.6 percent. The only team worse during that five-year span was the Sabres (6.5 percent). While 6.6 percent is unimpressive relative to the rest of the NHL, it's still notably better than the 5.5 percent the Hurricanes were managing through the end of December this season.
An increase in shooting percentage, the numbers suggested, should lead to an increase in scoring. That is what has happened: Carolina is shooting 9.0 percent in the past 38 games.
The Hurricanes are also getting better performance from their goalies during their charge toward the postseason. Curtis McElhinney has been steady, posting a .915 save percentage in 30 games. But the real difference-maker down the stretch has been Petr Mrazek, who has a .933 save percentage in 14 starts since the All-Star break; he had an .893 save percentage in his first 23 games.
The Hurricanes have consistently been getting the better of shot differentials, and now they are pairing that with improved shooting and save percentages.
There are a few more factors that have contributed to Carolina's improvement. Veteran center Jordan Staal returned to the lineup Feb. 23, after missing two months with a concussion. He has 12 points (four goals, eight assists) in 15 games while helping the Hurricanes to a 10-4-1 record. Staal is a factor for the Hurricanes because he controls play.

Among players to play at least 25 games this season, Staal's shot attempt percentage of 59.72 ranks first. More impressively, he does so while doing the heavy lifting, starting more shifts in the defensive zone and more frequently against top lines from the opposition.
Carolina's surge also started shortly before the acquisition of left wing Nino Niederreiter in a trade with the Minnesota Wild on Jan. 21.
Niederreiter seemed like the consummate Hurricanes forward, with a track record for putting up great shot differentials. Since 2015-16, his relative shot attempt percentage of 7.15 is second to Patrice Bergeron (7.25) of the Boston Bruins, so the puck consistently moves the right way with Niederreiter on the ice; now he's playing more and shooting more. He has 25 points in 30 games with the Hurricanes after he had 23 points in 46 games with the Wild.
The Hurricanes wouldn't be in this position if not for the development of forwards Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen, their top two scorers. Aho, in his third season, has moved to center and has NHL career highs in goals (30), assists (50) and points (80) while continuing to drive play. Teravainen has NHL career highs in assists (51) and points (70).

Finally, Carolina knew coming into the season that defense would be a strength.
Adding Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan to a group that included Jaccob Slavin, Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce, and Trevor van Riemsdyk has given the Hurricanes a stability on the back end that helps their goalies and allows the forwards to create chances at the other end.