Heika's Take: The statistics didn't match the scoreboard

DENVER, Colorado - Analytics can show a lot in hockey, but they don't show everything.
The Stars on Saturday won a lot of the statistical battles, but Colorado was timelier and more opportunistic in taking a 4-1 win at Ball Arena.

Dallas had a 42-36 advantage in shots on goal, a 61-50 edge in shot attempts, and won 63 percent of the faceoffs. But the Stars took a penalty in the opening minute of the game (Nils Lundkvist for holding) and handed the top-ranked power play a golden opportunity that Nathan MacKinnon cashed in for a 1-0 lead. Josh Manson then made it 2-0 13 minutes in, and the complexion of the game was set.
The Stars played Friday in Dallas. Colorado had its game at Nashville canceled because of a water main break damaging the arena there. This allowed the Avalanche to have some fresher legs.
"Back-to-back against a rested Colorado team, we needed to get through the first 10 minutes and we're down 2-0," Stars coach Pete DeBoer said. "I think if we get through that even, maybe it's a different game, I liked our energy, I liked some of the things we did. We pushed back really hard. We had lots of chances in the second period. But that hole we dug in the first 10 minutes, it's always key in a back-to-back."

The Stars had a great second period, earning five power plays and putting 20 shots on goal. However, they were able to only strike with one Joe Pavelski goal and the Avalanche made it 3-1 just a few minutes later.
"It felt like they were on us early, and then we got our game going," Pavelski said. "The second period was good. We were on them, and that means we were on the inside making plays. It would have been nice to get another one there."
But the Stars simply couldn't get more on Colorado goalie Alexander Georgiev, who made 41 saves and moved to 10-2-1 on the year.

The Avalanche are now 12-6-1 and tied with Winnipeg for first place in the Central Division with a .658 points percentage. Dallas falls to 12-6-4 and has now gone 0-1-2 in the past three games it has played against Colorado and the Jets this week. That's a concern, but DeBoer said he still liked the energy his team showed after losing to the Jets in overtime Friday.
"I actually liked our first period after the first 10 minutes. We threw a lot of pucks, we ended up with 16 shots on net, we started to take over the game, and I thought we took that into the second period," DeBoer said. "With that forecheck and pressure, we started to draw some power plays and those were our looks. You have to give their goalie credit; he made some big saves for them."
The power play was frustrating because Dallas entered with the second-best success rate in the league. Yes, the Stars did get one man advantage goal, but they sure could have used more.
"There were some loose pucks and we've got to find a way to put those home or make an extra play," Pavelski said. "You always believe you can do more in those situations."
Scott Wedgewood returned from an injury that forced him out of a game against Florida Nov. 17. He said he felt good and was ready to help his team win.
"I had some time out of the net there and just got back into game shape and I felt good," he said. "There's no thought issues, no kinks or anything like that. It was nice to get back in there, but you'd like a different outcome."

Wedgewood made 32 saves.
Dallas got six shots on goal from Pavelski, five from Jason Robertson, and four apiece from Mason Marchment and Ryan Suter. Robertson tallied an assist to push his point streak to 15 games, the longest since the team moved to Dallas in 1993. But again, all those stats don't look so great when you are beat on the scoreboard.
"I thought their goalie made some great saves," said Tyler Seguin. "Maybe there were some chances to make that one extra play, but when you're getting the chance to shoot, you want to shoot and keep crashing. We had our looks tonight."

Seguin bristled at the suggestion the Stars could be tired after flying in from Dallas or simply didn't have the energy to match the Avalanche.
"We don't want talk about that," Seguin said. "Every team has back-to-backs throughout the year and it all evens out at the end. I thought we had the right mindset tonight. We had the right opportunities, and the effort was there, it just didn't happen."
Now, as they head to St. Louis for another divisional match-up on Monday, the Stars need to find a way to make it happen.
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika.