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DALLAS --If you're doing the math, the most likely playoff scenario for the Stars is a first-round match-up with the Colorado Avalanche.

Dallas appears to be best suited to finish fifth in the Central Division, which would give it the second wildcard playoff spot (if it can outrace a bunch of Pacific Division teams). Meanwhile, Colorado looks like a solid bet to have the best record in the Western Conference and thus draw the second wildcard team in the opening round.
If that's the case, the Stars have some work to do.
Colorado was far from dominant Sunday in a 4-0 victory, but it never seemed in trouble. It took a 2-0 lead in the first period and never looked back
That was a disappointing outcome on the surface but was even more upsetting when you consider the Stars didn't have the playoff intensity that was expected.
"We gave that team way too much respect early and we didn't take it to them," Stars coach Rick Bowness said. "When we're an aggressive team, we're a very good hockey club. When we're tip-toeing around and watching them play, we're not."

'They were the much better team'

The Stars just came off intense wins against Nashville and Winnipeg, who are battling for the same playoff spots. But when faced with a Colorado team that has the best record in the NHL at 34-8-4, the Stars said they felt they backed off and played cautiously.
"I think we respected them too much," said forward Michael Raffl. "Just play our game and go after them."
Colorado bolted out of the gate and had a 13-5 advantage in shots on goal in the first period. Gabriel Landeskog tipped in a Nathan MacKinnon shot just five minutes in to give the Avalanche the lead, and then Cale Makar made a spectacular play to set up Nazem Kadri 12 minutes in to make it 2-0. After that, Colorado leaned hard on team defense and simply wouldn't let the Stars bust through.
Dallas battled hard and drew three power plays in the second period, but the Stars finished with just three shots on goal on the man advantage and really didn't threaten all that much. John Klingberg was out with an injury, and that hurt.
"It shouldn't but it does," Bowness said of the effect of Klingberg's absence. "He's a great power-play guy. We have enough guys who could step up, and we just didn't today."
The Stars could've used a big step-up game by Miro Heiskanen, but he was minus-3 in 27:30 of ice time.
Likewise, the top scorers also didn't really make an impression.
"We had some looks," said forward Joe Pavelski. "We expect to get the job done no matter whoever is going."

Pavelski comments on the loss to Avs

And that was part of the message on the afternoon. Colorado is really good. The Avalanche is one of the best offensive teams in the league and also played great team defense on Sunday, so this is a huge challenge. But it's a challenge the team will have to meet if it wants to have success this season.
"You've got to think you're going to be seeing this team at some point if you're going to go on a run," Pavelski said. "It's a good team, and we've had success against them at times. If we have to see them in the playoffs, we'll have to do the job."
And, if you just want a storyline to follow, the Stars will travel to Denver to play the Avalanche on Tuesday in a rematch. Of course, Colorado is 21-2-2 at home, so the challenge gets even tougher.

'We have to be a lot better next game'

"We know they are a good hockey team, and we have to be a lot better next game because they're even better at home than they are on the road," Raffl said. "It'll be a huge challenge for us."
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mike Heikais a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika.