Fantasy: Golden Knights-Capitals Game 4 picks

With the Vegas Golden Knights and Washington Capitals set for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final on Monday (8 p.m. ET; NBC, CBC, SN, TVAS), fantasy writers Pete Jensen and Rob Reese have picks and strategies for DraftKings NHL Showdown contests.

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Pete Jensen (@NHLJensen)
Must-own player: Marc-Andre Fleury, G, VGK ($7,300 in DraftKings) -- The Vegas Golden Knights, trailing in a series for only the second time all postseason, have against-the-grain value in Game 4, making the affordable Fleury worth rostering in this crucial spot. He has yet to hit double digits in DraftKings Showdown points in the Stanley Cup Final but made multiple timely saves in Game 3 (23 saves on 26 shots faced overall) to keep Vegas in the game. Fleury's ownership will likely be at its lowest point of the entire playoffs, and he's 6-3 with a .938 save percentage and two shutouts in nine road playoff games. Fleury has stolen a series from the Washington Capitals before with a road shutout for the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 7 of the second round last postseason. If Fleury at least keeps this game low-scoring, he could return immense value in this contrarian spot.

Value pick: Dmitry Orlov, D, WSH ($5,400) -- The Capitals defenseman has been quiet over the past two games (no points, one SOG, three blocked shots), but is shouldering a heavy workload (24:09 per game) against the Golden Knights and much cheaper than at the start of the series ($6,400), It's significant that Orlov played 2:26 on the power play in Game 3 for Washington, who is 1-for-7 in the series and could try different looks involving Orlov if the drought continues. Orlov had at least 9.2 DraftKings Showdown points in four of the seven games against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference Final and followed with 10.0 in Game 1 of the Cup Final. Orlov is tied with John Carlson and Matt Niskanen for the most even-strength points (eight) among Capitals defensemen, and brings plenty of 5-on-5 exposure to Washington's top forwards. His home category coverage has also been favorable this postseason, with four points (one goal, three assists), 23 SOG and 21 blocks in 10 games.
Overall strategy: Right wing Reilly Smith ($8,700), who plays on Vegas' top line, is much cheaper than earlier in the series and should bounce back after a rare goose egg given his strong road playoff production (eight points in nine games). His current price makes him stackable with linemate Jonathan Marchessault ($11,300), who has nine points (four goals, five assists) in as many road playoff games and hit the post in Game 3 on an impressive drive to the net. Marchessault leads all remaining players in road SOG per game (4.33) and has room for improvement on the power play (one goal on 17 power-play SOG). If you're banking on the Golden Knights' special teams (2-for-8 on power play in series), round out your lineup with first power-play defenseman Shea Theodore ($5,600; 8.0 DK Showdown points per game in Cup Final). Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov ($11,500) battled through an upper-body injury and had a Cup Final performance for the ages in Game 3, and his high shot volume (four; 85 in 22 playoff games) makes him a lineup lock. Kuznetsov has at least one point in 12 of his past 13 games, with the one blip being Game 2 of this series, when he left in the first period because of injury.
Game 4 prediction: Golden Knights win, 2-1 (OT)
Rob Reese (@NHLReese)
Must-own player: John Carlson, D, WSH ($9,500) -- The Capitals defenseman had his most complete game of the Cup Final with one assist, six SOG and four blocks (21.4 DK Showdown points) in Game 3 against the Golden Knights. Two of his six shots came on the power play, where the Capitals went 0-for-4. Carlson also had a game-high six missed shots, indicating the potential for a much bigger performance if more shots hit the net and the Capitals power play bounces back. In the conference final against Tampa Bay, Carlson had two games of at least 20.0 DK Showdown points but followed each averaging 3.6 per game. If the Capitals are going to win Game 4, expect Carlson to be a key contributor in all situations with similar category coverage to Game 3 (six SOG, four blocks).

Value pick: Jakub Vrana, W, WSH ($5,800) -- The Capitals wing has been an electrifying player to watch at even strength. His perfect pass in the second period of Game 3 directly through the Golden Knights crease just missed T.J. Oshie's stick blade, holding Vrana off the score sheet for the second straight Cup Final game. Despite not scoring in the past two games, Vrana has been active with five SOG and three blocks (6.7 DK Showdown points). All postseason long, Capitals secondary scorers (i.e. Andre Burakovsky, Devante Smith-Pelly, Chandler Stephenson) have taken turns rising to the occasion, and Vrana is long overdue for his first multipoint performance since Game 5 of the second round against the Penguins (one goal, two assists).
Overall strategy:Start building a lineup around a potential slate-breaker in Vrana, and mix in Golden Knights second-line center Erik Haula ($6,500), who's much cheaper than in the Western Conference Final against the Winnipeg Jets (priced as high as $8,600). The recent poor performances by Haula (4.9 DK Showdown points per game in Cup Final) now grant DFS players affordable access to a top-six forward averaging 6.6 face-off wins per game in the playoffs (51.1 percent). It's worth noting Vegas forward David Perron will be a healthy scratch in Game 4, meaning Alex Tuch ($7,100) will skate with Haula and James Neal ($7,600). Finish constructing a lineup with two must-own star players in Alex Ovechkin ($12,600) and Marchessault. Ovechkin, who has goals in three of his past four games and 14 this postseason, can break the Capitals single-playoff goal record at home.
Game 4 prediction: Capitals win, 2-0
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