Mailbag: Picking who's in, who's out for Stanley Cup Playoffs
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
With the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the near future, which teams do you think have the most realistic chance of making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference? -- @littlemann9
It's prediction time. I'll play along, but I give myself the right to be wrong here.
Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Columbus Blue Jackets and New Jersey Devils.
The order of the five teams from the Metropolitan Division (Capitals, Penguins, Blue Jackets, Flyers and Devils) may change, and the Lightning and Bruins could flip-flop at the top of the Atlantic Division, but those are my eight to come out of the East. There isn't anything surprising about those picks either, with those eight in playoff position.
The Florida Panthers have done a terrific job closing the gap and they have two games in hand on the Devils, so we can't rule them out. In fact, two weeks ago I wrote in this space I thought the Panthers would eventually overtake the Blue Jackets, who have won nine in a row.
I didn't see that coming from Columbus, which is why it's hard to feel confident picking Florida to get in.
The Western Conference is a giant logjam right now for the playoffs. Who makes it and who doesn't? -- @bloodfury96
Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild, Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, Colorado Avalanche.
The Ducks have been a mystery all season. Some games they play like world-beaters, in other games they play like they shouldn't be in a playoff race. But I like them to get in because they've been good at home (22-10-5) and play four of their final five games at Honda Center. Before that, they have a four-game Western Canada road trip that includes a game at the Jets, but the Ducks have home games against the Kings, Avalanche, Wild and Stars, three of the teams fighting for the final spots in the Western Conference.
I think the final spot will come down to the Stars or Avalanche. Each have road games against the Sharks, Ducks and Kings. In addition, the Avalanche have a home-and-home against the Golden Knights, and have home games against the Kings, Flyers, Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues. The Stars, who have lost six in a row, play the Bruins, Flyers, Vancouver Canucks and Wild at home, and at Minnesota. It's not going to be easy for either team, but I'm buying into Avalanche goalie Semyon Varlamov rather than Stars goalie Kari Lehtonen. My feeling might be different if Stars goalie Ben Bishop were healthy, but he's out at least two weeks with a left knee injury he sustained Sunday.
Which team currently in a playoff spot is the one that you think has gone under the radar by fans and will be deadly in the Stanley Cup Playoffs? -- @McLovinCanucks
I tweeted this after the Devils won 8-3 at the Golden Knights on March 14.
"If the New Jersey Devils make the playoffs, and I think they will, they are going to scare the daylights out of a favored team in the Eastern Conference with their ferocious speed and ability to score in any situation."
I 100 percent stand by what I tweeted. The Devils don't play a lot of games on national TV, so I'm not sure if fans from around the League know much about them, other than that forward Taylor Hall is having a terrific season.
Hall is without question driving the Devils, but they're not a one-man team. They have enough speed and skill to put a scare into anyone in the playoffs. I do question if they'll have enough to defeat a team with the pedigree of the Penguins, Lightning or Bruins, three potential opponents in the Eastern Conference First Round, but I'd be shocked if they were eliminated quickly.
Braden Holtby or Philipp Grubauer: Who is your starter in the first round? -- @CapsWeatherKid
This isn't the easiest call to make, which is surprising, but I don't think Capitals coach Barry Trotz should overthink the goalie situation. If Holtby finds some consistency in his game before the regular season ends, you go with him in Game 1 of the playoffs. If Holtby doesn't find it and Grubauer is playing better, you go with Grubauer. There is no loyalty, no playing favorites. Trotz must put the lineup on the ice that gives the Capitals the best chance to win.
Trotz is expected to go with a goalie rotation for the remainder of the regular season, a game-by-game evaluation that will be fascinating to watch. It also leaves me with two questions: Is Holtby the next Marc-Andre Fleury? Is Grubauer the next Matt Murray? For the Capitals' sake, they probably should hope the answer to both is yes, because Murray's ability to raise his game and overtake Fleury as the Penguins' No. 1 goalie helped Pittsburgh win back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. I still think Fleury could have led the Penguins to those championships, especially with how good he was in the first two rounds last season, but we go with what we know and Murray did more of the heavy lifting. If that happens with Grubauer and the Capitals this season, I don't think you'll hear any complaining.
Is Morgan Rielly playing like a No. 1 this season? Will he reach 50 points? -- @Moe19C
It depends on how you define a No. 1 defenseman. In terms of the Maple Leafs, I think Rielly is playing like a No. 1 even though he is fourth among Maple Leafs defensemen in ice time per game (21:42). His minutes are somewhat skewed because he doesn't play on the first power-play unit, but his 44 points (six goals, 38 assists) and points per game (0.66) lead their defensemen. He's on pace for 50 points and is the only Maple Leafs defenseman playing more than one minute per game on the power play (2:13) and the penalty kill (1:12).
However, if you look at some of the other No. 1 defensemen around the NHL, Rielly doesn't stack up, which is why on a League-wide basis I think he'd be a 1B or a No. 2 on a lot of teams. He's the No. 1 for Toronto, but in the mix with Nikita Zaitsev (22:34), Jake Gardiner (22:29) and Ron Hainsey (21:53) in minutes played per game. The Maple Leafs system doesn't allow for one defenseman to handle a significantly larger role than the other defensemen in the same way it does for the Lightning (Victor Hedman), Kings (Drew Doughty), Wild (Ryan Suter), Ottawa Senators (Erik Karlsson), Chicago Blackhawks (Duncan Keith) and Penguins (Kris Letang), for example.
Who would you take in a playoff series between Winnipeg and Nashville if both teams have healthy lineups? -- CitySlicka84
Nashville in six games.
The Predators are too good to pick against. I'm picking them to win the Stanley Cup. They have the best defensemen in the League with their top four of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm. Goalie Pekka Rinne is my new favorite to win the Vezina Trophy. Their front-line scoring and two-way play from forwards Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Kyle Turris, Craig Smith and Kevin Fiala can match up well against the Jets. They'd have to keep Jets forward Patrik Laine in check as best they can, but I think their defense is good enough to do that. And the Predators, who went to the Stanley Cup Final last season, have the necessary experience to win a big series like this.
Your top three sports movies? And you can't say the obvious choice of "Ladybugs." -- @Roblav99
1. "The Natural"
2. "Hoosiers"
3. "Miracle"
I'm not as big of a "Slap Shot" fan others are. I like it, but I can't quote it lines from it like so many of my colleagues can. "Field of Dreams" and "Major League" round out my top five. "Rudy" and "The Mighty Ducks" get great consideration. And please, let's not forget about "The Sandlot."
