Mailbag: Shesterkin in Hart conversation, Islanders may sell by deadline

Here is the March 9 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Igor Shesterkin for the Hart Trophy? -- @DaveyUpper
Count me in the camp of Shesterkin, the New York Rangers goalie, being in the conversation for the Hart Trophy as we near the three-quarters point of the season. The Hart Trophy is given annually "to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team." There is a strong argument to be made that no player has been as valuable to his team as Shesterkin has been to the Rangers, who are tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins for second in the Metropolitan Division based largely on his success. A goalie has won the Hart Trophy eight times since it was first awarded in 1924, with Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens doing it most recently in 2014-15. In Shesterkin's case, it's warranted, especially in comparison to what Price did that season
Shesterkin is 28-6-3 with a 1.93 goals-against average and .942 save percentage in 37 games (36 starts). Price was 44-16-6 with a 1.96 GAA and .933 save percentage in 66 games. Shesterkin has a .900 save percentage or better in 83.3 percent of his starts (30 of 36); Price was .900 or better in 71.2 percent of his starts (47 of 66). Shesterkin faces an average of 33.2 shots per 60 minutes; Price faced 29.5. Shesterkin's stats are even more impressive considering the Rangers are closer to the bottom of the NHL in 5-on-5 goals per game (1.86, tied with the Anaheim Ducks for 21st), shot-attempts percentage (46.5 percent, 28th), face-off percentage (47.7 percent, 25th), and shots on goal against per game (32.2, 23rd). Price didn't get much help either in 2014-15, when the Canadiens were 17th in 5-on-5 goals per game (1.75), 23rd in SAT percentage (48.5 percent), and 21st in shots against per game (30.1).

Shesterkin's effectiveness is also measured by how he fares against high-danger scoring chances. He has faced 220 with an expected goals-against of 66 and an actual goals-against of 44, according to Clear Site Analytics, the statistical company run by retired Rangers goalie Steve Valiquette, a studio analyst for New York's television broadcasts on MSG Network. He said Shesterkin has allowed six goals on 648 low-danger scoring chances. "He has only allowed six bad goals this season," Valiquette said. "That's a big piece of his success. He's the most consistent goalie in the league that stops Grade A's better than anyone and allows the fewest bad ones."
The goalie often has to be the most valuable player to his team for it to have success, but it's rare that the goalie makes the kind of difference Shesterkin is making for the Rangers. They might be a fringe Stanley Cup Playoff team without him; they're a lock with him. Shesterkin belongs in the Hart Trophy conversation.
Are the New York Islanders sellers? -- @TradionoleWiz
The Islanders (21-24-8) have no choice but to be sellers before the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline on March 21. Barring some type of miracle finish, they aren't going to make the playoffs this season. They're sixth in the Metropolitan Division and at a point where they must get younger and faster.
The Islanders should be entertaining offers for goalie Semyon Varlamov, who has one year remaining on his contract. Varlamov would be the best goalie on the market if the Chicago Blackhawks aren't trading Marc-Andre Fleury. The Washington Capitals, Edmonton Oilers, Minnesota Wild and Toronto Maple Leafs could be in the market for Varlamov. Though New York would hurt its goaltending depth for next season, a Varlamov trade would open the door for Ilya Sorokin to be the unquestioned No. 1, a status he has earned this season with 18 wins, a 2.38 GAA, .923 save percentage and five shutouts, and it would free up space under the NHL salary cap for the Islanders to improve in other areas.

Cal Clutterbuck has value on the trade market as a pending unrestricted free agent. The 34-year-old forward would be a solid addition for a Stanley Cup contending team looking for some experience and bite for their bottom-six forward group. New York may not get more than a third-round pick for Clutterbuck, but that's worth it. The Islanders need to start revamping their forward depth to get younger and likely wouldn't be trying to re-sign Clutterbuck anyway. Every contending team could use a player like him.
Whatever they can get for defenseman Andy Greene makes sense too. He's 39 and a pending UFA.
Do the Tampa Bay Lightning need to add at the deadline to three-peat? Obviously no cap space, though. -- @DeveeSanders
The Lightning don't need to add before the deadline to win the Stanley Cup again. They're good enough as is, and the return of Zach Bogosian on Tuesday after the defenseman missed 15 games with a lower-body injury is significant. Depth at defenseman or adding an insurance policy like they had with Luke Schenn the past two seasons, was at the top of my list when it came to the Lightning before Bogosian's return. Now that he's back, he can be what Schenn was for them: a security blanket in case of an injury or if Tampa Bay wanted to use a lineup with seven defensemen. Bogosian played 20 postseason games in 2020 and seven last season.
The Lightning could get creative by adding a third team to the mix for salary retention purposes to try to acquire depth forward Calle Jarnkrok from the Seattle Kraken. That would be a nice addition since Jarnkrok, a pending UFA, can play multiple roles. But if the Lightning stayed quiet, I think they'd be fine too.
What non-playoff team is going to be a Stanley Cup contender in 2-3 years? Which player(s) on that team will become superstars in the NHL? -- @theashcity
The New Jersey Devils and Detroit Red Wings have the pieces in place to realistically believe they can be a playoff contender as soon as next season if a few things get figured out. Give them a few more years and maybe they're in the mix as Cup contenders.
The Devils need to iron out their goaltending situation. I'm not sold that Mackenzie Blackwood is the answer, so they need to address the position in the offseason. New Jersey is 31st in the NHL in save percentage this season (.886); the NHL average is .908.
New Jersey and Detroit must improve defensively. That might require patience because of the pending emergence of defenseman prospects
Luke Hughes
for the Devils and
Simon Edvinsson
for the Red Wings. Hughes was the No. 4 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft and Edvinsson was the No. 6 pick. Each could be an immediate impact player when he reaches the NHL, but when is the question. Hughes is playing for the University of Michigan. Edvinsson is playing for Frolunda in the Swedish Hockey League. When they're ready, the Devils could have a top defense pair of Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, and the Red Wings could have Edvinsson and Moritz Seider, who should be among the favorites to win the Calder Trophy voted as the NHL rookie of the year.

Jack Hughes, Luke's brother, is a burgeoning superstar for the Devils. The 20-year-old center has the obvious skill and elusiveness to be one of the top scorers in the NHL. He has scored 43 points (17 goals, 26 assists) in 37 games and is figuring out the other parts of the game that will make him the total package. You see him being stronger on his skates, smarter in tough areas and aggressive on the forecheck.
Lucas Raymond and Seider are emerging for the Red Wings. Seider is the brightest young defenseman they've had since Nicklas Lidstrom. Raymond, a forward, is Detroit's version of Johnny Gaudreau for the Calgary Flames or Mitch Marner for the Maple Leafs, a supremely talented, slick, skilled scorer and playmaker.
Not exactly a deadline deal, but could Tyler Toffoli be the Flames' Butch Goring? -- @mikeybox
I see where you're going, but it's a stretch until Toffoli helps the Flames to at least one Stanley Cup championship, let alone the four that Goring won with the Islanders from 1980-83 after they acquired him in a trade with the Los Angeles Kings on March 10, 1980. But you're right that Toffoli might be the Flames' missing piece, especially because he fits the style they play: skillful, grinding, aggressively forechecking, winning wall battles and controlling the puck. Toffoli has scored 11 points (seven goals, four assists) and the Flames are 8-2-1 since they acquired him Feb. 14 in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens. His impact should grow as Calgary gets into the playoffs, particularly with his experience, including 76 playoff games and a Stanley Cup championship with Flames coach Darryl Sutter playing for the Kings in 2014.
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