Mailbag: Tight race for Hart Trophy; Canada's favorite to win Stanley Cup

Here is the April 10 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

Why does Artemi Panarin seemingly get overlooked in the MVP consideration? All you hear about is Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, but the New York Rangers lead the whole league. -- @AndrewL13410278

Panarin isn't being overlooked. He's a candidate. In any other, shall we say, normal season he might be the favorite. He's been that good for the Rangers, a big reason they've been as good as they've been, but this isn't a normal year. There are at least two candidates who have been better this season. That's not a knock on Panarin, it's a compliment to MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov. Don't forget about him. You did in your question. Tsk, tsk.

Kucherov might win the Hart Trophy voted as the League's most valuable player. McDavid will surely receive votes too, and maybe he wins it, but Panarin's consistency this season has been better. McDavid, who's day to day with a lower-body injury and could miss Edmonton's home game against the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday (8:30 p.m. ET; TNT, MAX, TVAS, SN1, SNE, SNO, SNW, SCRIPPS), had a slow start by his own standards before catching up to the field. MacKinnon, Kucherov and Panarin have been the most consistently excellent players from start until now. So no, Panarin isn't being overlooked. I think he's being looked at plenty, but he won't win it this season.

Right now, who would be your top three for the Hart Trophy? It might be 7-8 players you can make a case for. -- @punmasterrifkin

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Nikita Kucherov
3. Artemi Panarin

MacKinnon and Kucherov are close, but MacKinnon, as a center, controls more of the game through the middle of the ice. His attack pushes the opposition back. His speed is a weapon. He controls the defensive zone at times because of his attack mentality. He pushes the pace for the Avalanche, driving play every time he's on the ice. It's close, but for all those reasons I think he has more of an impact on the overall game. Kucherov is an artist; MacKinnon is a wrecking ball. When you want to knock down an opponent, you need the wrecking ball. Panarin is third for the reasons I mentioned in the above answer.

Do you see Chris Drury potentially looking to get ahead of the curve and potentially trying to sign Alexis Lafrenière to a long-term deal this offseason coming off this successful season of his? -- @SMAC1218

It's worth exploring the idea assuming Lafreniere is interested. He is signed for one more season with a $2.325 million AAV. The Rangers hold his rights next season, when he can be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. If Lafreniere expresses interest in a long-term contract extension the Rangers should see if they can make it work. It could be more cost efficient for them to do it now. There's risk involved, but that would be assuming Lafreniere takes a backward step next season. He's trending the right way, which is why he himself might want to wait to sign a long-term extension to maximize his value.

There's risk in that for him too, of course. The fact is he's had a strong, breakout season playing regularly at right wing on a line with Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. His skill is shining nightly, and his skating is vastly improved, which was his stated goal after last season. Next to come is his finishing touch around the net, but the way he has developed it's fair to assume that will come. This could be his first of many 30-goal seasons. He has 27 in 79 games this season. Addressing Lafreniere's long-term future with the team should be on the Rangers' to-do list this summer, but the player must be willing to play ball. If he says let's wait, the Rangers will wait. They're not trading him.

Why in your opinion has Jared Bednar never won the Jack Adams Award? -- @vikings1968

I'm going to give a long answer here because this is a good question.

Bednar was a finalist for the Jack Adams Award as NHL coach of the year in 2017-18, when he led the Colorado Avalanche to a 47-point turnaround in his second season. They had 48 points in 2016-17 and 95 in 2017-18. He hasn't been a finalist since then and maybe that is an injustice, but it's also a sign of expectations. Not surprisingly, the coach who leads a team to an above-expectations season is typically lauded as an Adams candidate. The Avalanche for several seasons have played up to their lofty expectations. Bednar is a big reason for that even if he doesn't get recognized for it.

Gerard Gallant won in 2017-18 when he guided the Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and eventually the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season. They played above expectations. Gallant was an easy choice. 

Barry Trotz won it in 2018-19, his first season with the Islanders. They went from an 80-point team in 2017-18 to a 103-point team in 2018-19. Trotz was an easy choice.

It was different in 2019-20, when Bruce Cassidy won it after the Boston Bruins had the best record in the NHL before the COVID-19 shutdown, one season after going to the Cup Final. Bednar's Avalanche weren't spectacular in 2019-20. They were good, finishing with 92 points, right where they were expected to be.

Bednar would have been a fine choice in the 56-game 2020-21 season, when the Avalanche won their last five games to finish first in the Discover Central Division with 82 points. Rod Brind'Amour (Carolina Hurricanes) won it, and Dean Evason (Minnesota Wild) and Joel Quenneville (Florida Panthers) were finalists. Again, Bednar might have been a victim of expectations with the Avalanche doing what they were supposed to do.

He again could have won in 2021-22 when the Stanley Cup champion Avalanche had 119 points, three behind the Presidents' Trophy-winning Florida Panthers, but the Calgary Flames came out of nowhere with 50 wins and 111 points, so their coach, Darryl Sutter, won the award. Bednar again wasn't even a finalist, instead it was Gallant, who guided the Rangers to the playoffs in his first season, and Andrew Brunette, who took over a tough situation in Florida with Quenneville getting fired and made the best of it.

Last season, it was hard to ignore Jim Montgomery leading the Bruins to a historic 65 wins and 135 points. The other finalists were Lindy Ruff after the New Jersey Devils had an unexpected 112 points, and Dave Hakstol, who got the Seattle Kraken into the playoffs in their second season. Both coached teams to way above expectations. Bednar, again, did not. The Avalanche were supposed to be good, and they were. Bednar, of course, is a big reason for that.

It could be the same this season, which in fact is a compliment to Bednar and the Avalanche.

Who would Florida rather play in the first round, Toronto or Tampa Bay? -- @JakeTucker33

It should be the Tampa Bay Lightning so they can own the Sunshine State rivalry, but to be fair, that doesn't matter right now. The Panthers need to get their game in order. They need to get healthy. They're playing without forward Carter Verhaeghe (upper body) and defenseman Aaron Ekblad (lower body). They need them back for Game 1 against whoever they're playing. The Panthers have struggled for the past month, but it's better to have that in March and early April than April 20, when the playoffs begin. They're best against the Lightning when healthy.

I won't even cite the Panthers' 9-2 win against the Lightning on Feb. 17. That was an aberration. It won't happen again. Instead, I'll look at their 5-3 loss March 16, when they outshot them 50-16. They unloaded on Andrei Vasilevskiy but allowed Tampa Bay to take advantage of its opportunities with more mental mistakes than physical ones. It was after that game that coach Paul Maurice said the Panthers need to get their mental edge back. They're still working on that. If they find it and get Ekblad and Verhaeghe back without losing any more significant players, they could roll in the playoffs no matter who they face in the first round.

Looks like four Canadian teams will make the playoffs. Which of the four has the best chance to break the 31-year drought and bring the Cup back to Canada? -- @theashcity

Among the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets, Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs, who has the best goalie that we know will be available and the best 5-on-5 defense? The answer is the same: The Jets, which is why they're my pick as Canada's favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

Connor Hellebuyck is a difference-maker. We don't know if Thatcher Demko will be available to the Canucks. Edmonton's Stuart Skinner and Toronto's Ilya Samsonov have a lot to prove. I'll go with the sure thing, Hellebuyck, at a position that is the most important in the playoffs.

The Jets have allowed a League-low 117 goals at 5-on-5 (1.50 per game). They'll win a lot of games in the playoffs if they can keep that up. Even if they're average on special teams, which they have been this season (18.5 one the percent power play, 76.9 percent on the penalty kill), it won't matter because their 5-on-5 play will make up the difference.