Hill vs. Pickard goalie matchup in Western 2nd Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, the last 100 goals allowed for each goaltender in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The Western Conference Second Round between the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers features a Stanley Cup-winning goalie in Vegas starter Adin Hill against Calvin Pickard, who will be starting a Stanley Cup Playoff series in the NHL for the first time in his 10th season. The stark difference in playoff experience mirrors the significant contrast in styles and tendencies between the two goalies.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights

Hill’s ascent to NHL starter and Cup winner started with a relief appearance against the Oilers in the second round of the 2023 playoffs, so there should still be a level of familiarity on both sides of the puck. And while goalies continue to evolve over the years, many of the scoring trends from two years ago remain relevant now.

Second chances, right side: Rebounds were the primary factor on 21 goals, which is well above the average of 11.7 percent for the over 8,500 goals tracked for this project since 2017, and 12 were scored on the blocker side. Almost all goalies move better one way than the other, and for most it’s typically worse to the blocker side. That appears to include Hill, who is more likely to lunge, reach and even dive in that direction than he is recovering to his glove side. This is reflected in the higher number of goals along the ice outside his right pad (14) compared to his left (7). Add in a tendency to kick at low shots with the right pad, which adds a delay to recovery and puts more rebounds into the middle rather than angling them into the corner, along with softer pads that tend to keep the puck inside the dots, leading to traditional pass-off-pad rush chances producing several goals this season.

High glove? With the biggest numbers in both the regular season and playoff goal chart over the glove, don’t be surprised to see the Oilers targeting the glove side on open looks and rush chances. Hill uses a traditional ‘handshake’ glove position, holding it near his hip, and can leave his elbow behind his body at times, making high glove a better target than over the pad.

Laterals up high: Hill has long excelled against east-west attacks, with above average results on dangerous plays across the middle of the ice that force a goalie to move side to side. It’s partly a function of playing deeper in his crease than many of his peers, which creates shorter paths and pushes on the side-to-side passes below the hash marks. He does, however, come further out and time his retreats on rush chances, so making early passes higher in the zone increase both the distance he must travel across the ice to beat the pass and the odds of scoring.

Low-high scrambles: Hill also posted good numbers on scrambles and bounces off teammates over the years, but they did account for 18 goals this season and forcing him to work in and out of his posts on plays near or below the goal line is a good way to create that chaos. He sometimes leaves his inside leg below the goal line when using RVH to seal his short-side post, which can leave him reaching and late on low-high passes or sharp-angle attacks. It also limits his ability to push up to the crossbar on that short-side post, and his skate-on-post integration creates a gap between the bottom of the pad and the post that led to two goals this season, both trends that players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are capable of exploiting.

Calvin Pickard

Edmonton Oilers

Pickard took over for Stuart Skinner in the third period of Game 1 of the first round against the Los Angeles Kings and subsequently won the next four starts to eliminate the Kings and stake his claim to the starting job to start the second round. His backup status in the regular season means there are only 85 goals to look at, but the popular Pickard produced great results behind a team that appears to battle as hard for him defensively as he does for them in the crease.

Traffic jams: Pickard reads and anticipates well, so it’s not shocking to see that taking away his line of vision leads to more goals. More than one-quarter (24) of the 85 goals he gave up in the regular season involved a screen, and the Kings added four more goals with traffic in the first round, both well above the tracked average of 15.1 percent. Screen goals weren’t limited to in-zone plays either, with five in the regular season and one in the playoffs coming off the rush, often with Oilers defensemen not helping with loose gap control that allowed opponents to use them to hide their shot release. Part of the in-zone results are physical: at 6-foot-1 with a narrower butterfly, Pickard doesn’t cover as much net. He also tends to drift back as he drops behind traffic, opening more net and limiting coverage to cut off deflections, which accounted for eight screened goals in the regular season and two more in the first round. Where to shoot also depends on where you are shooting from: Pickard uses a high stance to look over traffic when the puck is at the point, so quick low shots can be effective from distance, but he lowers and tends to slide more mid zone, so elevated shots against the grain led to 13 screen goals.

Blocker on clean looks? The goal chart shows a discrepancy that might suggest shooting high glove side but it’s important to remember those don’t represent a save percentage. Seven of the 10 clean-look goals Pickard gave up in the regular season were on the blocker side (four were low shots, just over the pad, and three were high shots), and the Kings scored two of their four clean-shot goals high blocker as well. The two Los Angeles goals were near perfect shots just under the bar, but a tendency to turn and pull back with the blocker and blocker-side shoulder rather than cutting pucks off in front may make blocker side a preferred target.

High glove moving or screened: Of the 18 high-glove goals in the regular season, four were screened and 12 involved plays that got Pickard moving, taking advantage of a tendency to drop his glove from a high, fingers-up position in his static stance when he is moving, whether it’s side-to-side on his skates or knees, or on low-high passes that accounted for 11 goals.

East-West depends on direction: Pickard manages dangerous lateral plays across the middle of the ice well, with his 15 goals (17.6 percent) in regular season well below the tracked average of 22.1 percent, and none surrendered in four games against the Kings. While these types of east-west plays are typically the hardest for goalies, Pickard’s play reading has allowed him to make momentum changing saves when facing them. His goal results are balanced in both directions but the goals along the ice to his right are a sign of better success attacking in that direction below the hash marks, while right-to-left can produce better results higher in the zone, including the above-mentioned tendency to lower his glove while moving that way.