The ping pong balls will be hopping tonight, and when it’s all said and done, another piece of the offseason puzzle will be in place for the Blue Jackets.
The NHL’s annual draft lottery will take place this evening and be televised live on ESPN at 7 p.m., with the Blue Jackets finding out where they will select with their pick in the first round of June’s NHL draft.
The two lottery draws will determine the first and second overall selections in the draft, and unlike the past few seasons, Columbus is not in the running to get the No. 1 pick. The Blue Jackets enter the draft with the 13th best odds to win the lottery by virtue of their 40-33-9 record and 89 points, which left them two shy of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
But in what many experts feel is a top-heavy draft, moving up would give the Jackets a strong chance to draft an impact player to add to a young squad that finished just shy of postseason play in 2024-25.
The Numbers
Columbus’ 89 points place the squad with the fourth-best record of the 16 teams to fall short of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, with Calgary, Vancouver and Utah finishing ahead of the Blue Jackets. As a result, the Blue Jackets have just a 2.0 percent chance of winning the first lottery draw.
One year after taking Macklin Celebrini first overall, San Jose still had the league’s worst record and has the best odds (18.5 percent) of winning the lottery draw again, followed by Chicago (13.5 percent), Nashville (11.5 percent), Philadelphia (9.5 percent), Boston (8.5 percent), Seattle (7.5 percent), Buffalo (6.5 percent), Anaheim (6.0 percent), Pittsburgh (5.0 percent), the New York Islanders (3.5 percent), the New York Rangers (3.0 percent) and Detroit (2.5 percent).
Columbus is next with that 1-in-50 ticket, followed by Utah (1.5 percent), Vancouver (0.5 percent) and Calgary (0.5 percent).
But because of a provision that teams can move up 10 spots at most in the lottery, the Blue Jackets cannot earn the No. 1 overall selection. If Columbus does win the first lottery draw, the Blue Jackets will move up to the No. 3 overall selection in the draft.
Remember, there are two lottery draws, so there are two chances for the Blue Jackets to win and move up 10 spots. The way the math works out, per Tankathon, Columbus has a 4.2 percent chance to earn the No. 3 overall pick, a 90.7 percent chance of staying at No. 13 and a 5.1 percent chance of falling to 14th, and minuscule chances the Jackets end up with picks Nos. 4, 5 or 15.
The Jackets also hold Minnesota’s first-round pick in the draft, acquiring the selection in November as part of the trade that sent defenseman David Jiricek to the Wild. Minnesota lost in the opening round of the playoffs, so that selection will fall at No. 20.
The History
Columbus has moved up in the draft lottery just once, doing so in 2016 when the team had the fourth-best odds and moved up to the No. 3 selection in the draft, which it used to select center Pierre-Luc Dubois.
Having missed the playoffs the previous four seasons before this year, the Blue Jackets have had top-10 picks in the last four drafts. In 2021, the team stayed in the fifth spot and selected Kent Johnson; in 2022, the Jackets had Chicago’s first-round selection (sixth overall) and their own (12th overall) and picked Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk; in 2023, the Jackets fell from second to third and drafted Adam Fantilli; and in 2024, the team stayed at fourth overall and chose Cayden Lindstrom.
The Players
Here’s a quick look at some of the top players in the draft per NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings.
- D Matthew Schaefer (Erie, OHL): Schaefer could be the first defenseman taken at No. 1 overall since Owen Power (Buffalo) in 2021. He missed much of the year with injury but had 7-15-22 in 17 games with the Otters and skated with Canada at the IIHF World Junior Championship.
- C Michael Misa (Saginaw, OHL): Granted exceptional status in 2022 to join the OHL early, Misa led all CHL skaters this season with 134 points (62 goals, 72 assists), the most in the league since John Tavares and Patrick Kane in 2006-07.
- C James Hagens (Boston College, NCAA): A member of Team USA’s gold medal-winning World Juniors squad, Hagens ranked fourth among freshmen in college hockey this year with 37 points (11 goals, 26 assists).
- C Jake O’Brien (Brantford, OHL): A center with size and skill, O’Brien posted a 32-66-98 line in 66 games with the Bulldogs this season.
- D Radim Mrtka (Seattle, WHL): The Czech blueliner stands 6-6, 216 pounds, and had a 3-32-35 line in 43 games with the Thunderbirds in his first season in North America.
- RW Porter Martone (Brampton, OHL): The 6-3 wing filled up the scoresheet this season, posting 37 goals and 98 points in 57 games while adding 74 penalty minutes for the Steelheads.
- C Caleb Desnoyers (Moncton, QMJHL): Desnoyers has had two excellent seasons with the Wildcats, scoring 35 goals among his 84 points this year.
- C Roger McQueen (Brandon, WHL): Injuries limited the 6-5 pivot to just 17 games this year, but he posted 10 goals, 10 assists and 40 PIM in 17 games.
- D Kashawn Aitcheson (Barrie, OHL): Aitcheson’s third season in Barrie was his best yet, as he posted a 26-33-59 line in 64 games.
- LW Carter Bear (Everett, WHL): Bear tied for seventh in the WHL with 40 goals this season, adding 42 assists in 56 games.
- C Anton Frondell (Djurgarden, Sweden): Frondell had 11-14-25 in 29 games this season, finishing with the second-most points ever recorded by a player age 17 or younger in Sweden’s second division behind William Nylander in 2013-14.
- RW Victor Eklund (Djurgarden, Sweden): The brother of San Jose forward William Eklund, this wing had 19 goals and 31 points in 42 games this season.
- C Milton Gastrin (Modo, Sweden): Gastrin had an 18-24-42 line in 40 games with Modo’s junior squad and played in eight games with the senior-level team without a point.
- LW Vojtech Cihar (Karlovy Vary, Czechia): Playing in his home country’s top league, Cihar had four goals and nine points in 43 games.
- RW Alexander Zharovsky (Salavat Yulaev Ufa, Russia): Zharovsky had a 24-26-50 line in 45 games for Ufa Tolpar, the organization's junior squad, and made five playoff appearances at the KHL level with an assist.
Another player to keep an eye on: left-shot defenseman Sascha Boumedienne, an Ohio AAA Blue Jackets product who recently notched 14 points in seven games -- a tournament record for defensemen -- for Sweden at the IIHF World U-18 Championship. Boumedienne is the son of former CBJ scout and assistant coach Josef Boumedienne and was a freshman at Boston University this season, notching 3-10-13 in 40 games for a Terriers team that made the Frozen Four.
