One game at a time: Stars embracing uphill climb starting with Game 5

The Dallas Stars have pieced together a proud history of overcoming adversity this season. But what lies in front of them is their greatest challenge yet.

The Stars in their franchise history have never overcome a 3-1 deficit to win a seven-game series (0-16 overall), so winning the next three games to advance to the Stanley Cup Final would be a historic feat. It’s a weighty proposition, so Dallas is going to try to do this one bite at a time, starting in the first period on Thursday at American Airlines Center.

“It’s one game at a time,” said forward Oskar Bäck on Wednesday. “We’ll try to win the next one.”

On the bright side, Dallas really needs to improve its playoff performance in areas where it excelled during the regular season. The Stars have struggled to score in recent games, but were third in the NHL during the regular season at 3.35 goals per game. They allowed two power play goals against in Game 4, but have been one of the League’s best penalty killing teams all year. And as it tries to stay out of the penalty box, Dallas boasted the sixth-fewest penalty minutes during the regular season.

“We’re close,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said, referencing Edmonton’s run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last season. “You don’t have to look any further than the Stanley Cup Final last year. They were down 3-0 and forced a Game 7. We just have to win one game tomorrow night and then do-or-die in Edmonton in Game 6 to try to get a Game 7 back here at home.”

Dallas has been great at home both in the regular season and the postseason. The Stars are 7-2 at home during the playoffs, averaging 3.44 goals per game while allowing 2.44. The Stars have hit on 42.9 percent of their power plays in Dallas and have killed 85.7 percent of their penalties. That’s necessary because the margin of error against the Oilers has been razor thin. Last season, the Stars outshot the Oilers 34-10 in Game 6 in Edmonton and lost 2-1. Throughout this series, the Stars have had advantages in shots on goal (91-82) and shot attempts (216-185), and yet have been outscored 16-8.

That can be frustrating, but they are trying to keep their focus sharp. In fact, the players might be less frustrated than the fans right now.

When it was suggested that the lack of finish is “strange,” forward Jason Robertson said, “I wouldn’t say strange. It’s the playoffs. Everyone tightens up defensively. Scoring chances are coming at a premium. But I mean, we’re getting a lot of shot attempts, a lot of shots that create rebounds and whatnot. Just going to continue doing that and I’m sure they’ll go in.”

A squad that had six 20-goal-scorers during the regular season has gone cold. Matt Duchene had 82 points during the regular season, but has 6 (1 goal, 5 assists) in the playoffs. Wyatt Johnston tallied 71 points (33 goals, 38 assists) in 82 regular-season games. He has 8 in 17 playoff games and is an NHL-worst minus-18. Mason Marchment has 1 goal and 18 penalty minutes. Jamie Benn can’t score and is taking penalties, too. Even the top line of Mikko Rantanen with Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund has gone cold and was broken up in Game 4.

Robertson moved up to the top line and scored the game’s only goal for Dallas (on the power play). Robertson missed the First Round with a lower-body injury and has just two goals in 10 playoff games. Fortunately, those were in the last two games

On the flip side, the Oilers seem to be pushing all of the right buttons. Edmonton has been without defenseman Mattias Ekholm throughout the playoffs and still is finding ways to win. In the past two games, the Oilers lost forwards Connor Brown and Zach Hyman to injury. Yet, in each game, Edmonton made the big plays at the right time.

Kind of remind you of another team? One that was able to push back against Colorado and Winnipeg, despite not being fully healthy?

“You just keep working,” Tyler Seguin said. “This time of year, it’s about willing things in. Did we deserve to get rewarded one of these games or a couple more goals? Probably. But it doesn’t matter what you deserve right now. Just go back home and keep grinding away and hopefully things change here.”

Bottom line, the Oilers are finding ways to earn these wins. They beat Dallas in the Western Conference Final last season and are on the doorstep of doing it again this year. That’s a significant challenge for this dressing room.

“We’re generating chances, it just hasn’t been going in. We know the recipe and we’ll get back to it,” Sam Steel said. “We’re not in the best of spots right now, but we know we can win games against this team. It starts with one tomorrow.”

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.

Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on X @MikeHeika.