Heika’s Take: Stars can’t hang on to lead in third, lose to Wild in overtime

The Stars’ warning lights are flashing right now.

And whether it’s just for an oil change or a radiator flush or a transmission check, they need to get the ol’ Family Truckster into the shop before they embark on what they hope will be a very long playoff trip. Luckily for them, they have a nice little homestand that could help fix the problems.

But there is a lot to repair.

In the 39 games where Dallas has led after two periods this season, they have lost just four times – two of those were Saturday and Sunday.

In the almost three seasons that Pete DeBoer has been at the helm of this team, it has been one of the best in shot differential and puck possession – it has been outshot 24.3-36.8 on average in the past 10 games, including allowing 40-plus on four different occasions. The 36.8 allowed is worst in the league in that span.

And while playing under the tutelage of DeBoer and his coaching staff, the Stars have been one of the least penalized teams in the league – they have been worst in the league in allowing 38 shorthanded opportunities since March 18.

That’s concerning.

“There’s some things in our games that have crept in – the penalties again tonight – that’s a big one,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said after a 3-2 overtime loss at Minnesota on Sunday. “We’ve been a really disciplined team over the past two or three years and we’re taking an extra three or four penalties a night, which is putting more pressure on your goaltender and the shot clock. We’ve got some things we need to clean up here before the playoffs start.

Dallas was manhandled in the third period en route to the Minnesota loss, getting outshot 17-4. That’s disappointing and frustrating because the Stars had a 1-0 lead after 40 minutes on the strong work of goalie Jake Oettinger. And even when that devolved into a 2-2 tie late in the third period, the lads in Victory Green had a power play where they could have ripped victory from the jaws of defeat and salvaged what has been a rocky past few games.

They didn’t.

Instead, Jason Robertson took a tripping penalty 13 seconds into the 3-on-3 overtime and Minnesota scored 40 seconds later. It was a huge win for the struggling Wild, and a reminder to Dallas that they aren’t ready for the postseason right now. That is a tough realization, as the Stars are 7-1-2 in their past 10 games and have been finding ways to win.

But while Oettinger and Casey DeSmith were cleaning up a lot of messes during the stretch, even their heroics weren’t enough this weekend. DeSmith stood on his head against his old team Pittsburgh, and Dallas still unraveled, allowing four third period goals in a 5-3 loss. On Sunday, Oettinger was playing in his native Minnesota and was pushing hard for a shutout. However, the Wild scored twice in the third period as Oettinger faced a barrage of shots and was simply overwhelmed.

It was a bit of a wakeup call for the Stars.

“We feel like we’ve been really good in the third period in general,” forward Matt Duchene said.

The Stars are 35-2-2 when leading after two periods and 12-3-1 when tied after two. That’s been a strong point all season. Duchene said a big part of being good is creating offense and playing with the puck, and Dallas has not done that in recent weeks.

“We don’t give up leads usually. That’s an anomaly for us, which is not great to have right now,” Duchene said. “But you’ve got to generate more. You can’t score two goals and win too many games in this league. Jake was great. Our goaltending has been outstanding. We’ve got to give them more run support for sure.”

Dallas took a 1-0 lead in the first period off Robertson’s 34th goal of the season. Robertson took a beautiful pass from Mikko Rantanen and was able to slip a shot past Filip Gustavsson at the 5:51 mark of the first period. But then the offense dried up. Dallas has three power play opportunities but didn’t generate much at all. The man advantage was a problem earlier in the season, but then caught fire and was one of the best in the league. In recent games, it has sputtered.

Likewise, the Stars have been unable to get into the flow in terms of puck possession. Dallas has a shots on goal differential of -125 over the past 10 games. That’s a bad sign.

“We’ve got some things to clean up,” DeBoer said. “We’re giving up too many shots against. We’re taking too many penalties and we’re spending too much time in our own end, which starts with breakouts getting cleaner. Those are things we’re working at. If we clean up those areas, I think the numbers will come down.”

Dallas is clearly missing defenseman Miro Heiskanen, who has been out since the beginning of February with a knee injury. Heiskanen is skating, but his status for the playoffs is still up in the air. For Dallas to compensate for his absence, the entire team has to play better.

“We have to do a better job of breaking the puck out,” said forward Sam Steel. “If we can do a better job of that, we’ll be playing more in their end and that means less shots against.”

Dallas has the best penalty killing team in the NHL, but it can’t push that element too far. The Stars were fantastic against Minnesota until overtime. Robertson took an ill-advised penalty, and Marco Rossi scored to give Minnesota an emotional home win.

The Wild move to 42-29-7, 91 points and are two points behind St. Louis in the race for the two wildcard spots. Dallas gets a point and moves to 50-22-5, 105 points, three points behind Winnipeg for the division lead. Had Dallas held its two third period leads, it would be tied with the Jets with a huge showdown coming in Dallas on Thursday. As it is, the Stars could make things interesting by winning the final five games of the regular season.

“We’re doing some things better, but we’re still not at the level we’re capable of, so we’ve got to find it here,” Duchene said.

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.

Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on X @MikeHeika.