gamepreview_instory_050721atTBL
Stars (21-18-14, 56 points) vs. Lightning (36-14-3, 75 points)

After going through a recent 0-3-2 stretch with the season on the line, the Stars really can't afford to lose anymore.
With three games remaining, Dallas is four points behind fourth-place Nashville and needs to finish one point ahead. That means the Stars need to get five points and Nashville get zero in its final two games. Or if the Predators get one point, Dallas will need six.
That's pretty much the math.
Of course, it goes beyond that. Dallas had three key giveaways and took four penalties in a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday, so they definitely need an improved performance tonight.
"We beat ourselves last game, let's beat the opposition tonight," Stars coach Rick Bowness said. "It's as simple as that. There comes a point where you have to win, and that's where we are."

'You have to win, and that's where we are'

Tampa Bay is 6-1-0 against the Stars this season and currently on a 6-0-1 run overall. The defending Stanley Cup champions have been a tough match for Dallas. On the good side, Dallas won't have to face goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has dominated them this season. On the bad side, this still is a Lighting team that has plenty of weapons.
Backup goalie Curtis McElhinney is expected to be in net for Tampa Bay and he's been beatable this season with a 4-5-2 record, a 2.91 goals-against average and .879 save percentage. That said, he's allowed one goal on 40 shots in his last two starts (both wins) and is 7-2-0 in his career against Dallas with a 2.07 GAA and .936 SV%.
The Stars have a total of seven goals in their five-game losing streak, so they need to find a way to score. They have to be smarter and better at defending, as well.
"Our details haven't been sharp enough," said forward Jason Dickinson after Wednesday's loss. "We're giving up goals that are uncharacteristic of us, we're letting D-men step into one-timers a lot, and they're getting stuff through. Stuff like that. We're trying really hard to do the right thing."
But now they must take the next step and do more of the right things or the season will be officially over. If the Stars lose in regulation, they'll be eliminated from postseason contention. If they're hoping to get help from Carolina, which has two games remaining in Nashville, they'll also have to help themselves by winning out in the last three games, which includes back-to-back road contests in Chicago to close out the regular season.

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"We understand we need a little help, but we've got to get a win," forward Joe Pavelski said. "We've got to win our next game and go from there. That's the biggest thing. We have to have that narrow focus. We have to win a game. Then, we can go from there. We can't look ahead. We're not going to get all three at once, so focus on that first one."
That starts tonight.

What to watch

The Stars have taken ill-advised penalties and made some egregious turnovers in recent games. And while that's unusual for a team that prides itself on discipline, it's also understandable when you see the compressed schedule Dallas has been fighting through.
As much as playing four games in six nights can aggravate injuries and cause tired legs, it also can tax the brain.
Asked which is harder right now, the physical or mental toll, "it's both, really," said Bowness.
"You can't rule out the physical side of what we've been through," he adds. "When you go through 11 weeks of four games every six nights, there's a tremendous physical toll, which now plays into the mental side. You can't help but feel tired or beat up. You don't even have time to reflect. You have to get ready for the next game, the next team. On the mental side, trying to play at a high level, it's tough to stay up at this level every game. I give our guys a lot of credit."
Still, they need to eliminate mistakes if they hope to win. While staying sharp might be just as difficult as finding physical energy, it's something that seems a little easier to fix.
"When we've made the turnovers we have, they end up in our net," Pavelski said. "We have to be a little sharper, a little better, we have to support the puck a little better. There's another level we can get to."

Lineup updates

Birthday boy Anton Khudobin will be back in net for the Stars. The veteran netminder, who turned 35 Friday, is 11-10-7 on the season with a 2.50 GAA and .906 SV%. He was pulled in his last start after allowing four goals on 11 shots against Florida, but he lost a 1-0 overtime game at Nashville in the game before that.
Khudobin is still searching for his first win of the season against Tampa Bay, going 0-3-0 with a 3.04 GAA and .867 SV% in three previous starts. A victory Friday could be enormous.
As usual, the Stars have a lot of game-time decisions with their skaters.

Numbers
Plus 56.5

Defenseman Joel Hanley is second on the Stars to Alexander Radulov (who only played 11 games) in what the league calls "puck possession" at plus-56.5 percent. The stat is a measure of shots attempts for and shots attempts against at even strength while a player is on the ice. Hanley played 18:36 last game with two shots on goal and two blocked shots.

Minus-22

The Stars' checking line is a combined minus-22 in seven games against Tampa Bay this season. Radek Faksa is minus-10, Blake Comeau minus-7 and Andrew Cogliano is minus-5.

102

John Klingberg leads the Stars in hits dolled out this season with 102.

He said it

"We're very frustrated. Guys were really upset at the end of the game because they know we've played better than that, but you put that aside. We talked after the game, `Okay, we're still in it. We've got a game Friday night, that's our game in hand, we have to win it.'" -- Bowness after a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday
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This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mike Heikais a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika, and listen to his podcast.