Zizing 'Em Up: Playoff barometer at U.S. Thanksgiving

NHL.com staff writer Mike Zeisberger has been covering the NHL regularly since 1999. Each Sunday he will use his extensive networks of hockey contacts to write his weekly notes column, “Zizing 'Em Up.”

TORONTO -- The unwritten credo in the hockey world for the past couple of decades suggests the standings at Thanksgiving in the United States provide a legitimate indication of who’ll qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs five months later.

But with the parity that dominates the modern-day NHL, does that theory still hold true?

With our American friends enjoying their holiday weekend, we decided to pose that question to Kenny Albert and Chris Cuthbert as part of our State of the Game roundtable.

As renowned national broadcasters, these two have seen the landscape of the League firsthand. Albert is the top hockey play-by-play man for TNT; Cuthbert is the voice of Hockey Night of Canada.

Here’s how each feels about various topics, including early-season surprises and disappointments, what the top story to date in the NHL has been, and what they’re looking forward to seeing over the final three quarters of the season:

Do you feel the standings at U.S. Thanksgiving are as much a legitimate foreshadow of playoff qualifiers down the road as they once were?

Albert: “I think it has changed a little bit. I think for the most part, you'll probably see at least 12 of the 16 teams who are in playoff spots right now, in my opinion, probably make the playoffs. But think back to St. Louis, for example, in 2019, right? They had the worst record in the League, I think, on Jan. 4, and wound up winning the Cup. So, we have seen examples where teams make big runs in the second half. On the other side of the spectrum, with three-point games, maybe it’s not as easy down the stretch if a team was five or six points out because of the three-point games. It's probably a pretty good barometer. But you look at it, there’s still three quarters of the season left, right? Still a long way to go. And I know the Edmonton Oilers are the team that everybody's talked about now when you look at the standings and the distance that they have to make up. It’s not going to be easy for them, but it's certainly not out of the question.”

Cuthbert: “I look at the standings right now and I don't know how much of a litmus test that is this year. It feels different. It feels like there's more teams kind of jammed in the peloton right now. Like, if I'm the Oilers, I'm pretty concerned about the history of where you stand on Thanksgiving. But for a lot of teams, I don't know if there's a team sitting in the top on either side right now that could feel absolutely comfortable in a wild card spot because they could drop out of sight within weeks.”

What has been the top story of the young season for you so far?

Cuthbert: “I think the two overriding stories are: Reports of Boston's demise were greatly exaggerated; [and] reports of the Oilers’ Stanley Cup coronation were equally overstated. I mean, those for me are the dominant storylines as of Thanksgiving for sure.”

Albert: “I think just some of the unbelievable young talent. Connor Bedard hitting the 10-goal mark already, for example. We were fortunate with our TNT crew to be there when he scored his first NHL goal against Boston in his second NHL game. We were thankful that he didn't score the night before in Pittsburgh in the opener. He saved his first goal for us. But whether it's Bedard, the Hughes brothers when you look at the start that Jack got off to before the injury, and now Quinn leading the League in scoring, and so many other great young players out there, I think that's been a big story. Just the young talent stepping up and shining. Putting up points at a crazy pace, right? Look at former first-round pick, Alexis Lafrenière here in New York; he’s off to the best start of his career. He's got eight goals already. Just every decade with the technology and the fact that they're skating all summer and skills coaches and some of the other technological aspects that have been brought in, you know, the players just getting more skilled, faster, stronger each and every year. And it's translating to the ice.”

Biggest surprise of the young season to date?

Albert: “I'm really happy for Rick Tocchet, my colleague at TNT for a year and a half. I spent a lot of time with him and when he took over in Vancouver last February, I guess a lot of people around the hockey world were questioning why would he go there. But when you look at the job that he's done as coach of the Canucks, down the stretch last year and then off to such a great start this season, just really happy for him and his success.”

Cuthbert: Certainly, Boston's a huge surprise. I‘ve got to tell you, you look at the Atlantic standings; Boston, Florida, Tampa (Bay). You know, if we were in the middle of last year, that would have made sense. This year it’s almost shocking, considering what those teams were missing through injury or, in the case of the Bruins, not having guys like (Patrice) Bergeron and (David) Krejci, who retired. Look what Florida has done without some key pieces, injury wise, like Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour. Look what Tampa did without (Andrei) Vasilevsky. I think that's very impressive for sure. And the Canucks need to be on that list for sure.”

Biggest disappointment?

Cuthbert: “I think the Oilers have lapped the field in that one.”

Albert: “Edmonton. Especially when you look at their talent, you know, obviously they arguably have two of the top five players in the world in Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. And I know when we were up there for the conference finals against Colorado two seasons ago, even though they got swept, you just thought it would be a matter of time and that one of these years they're going to break through and get to the Final. And then to see the start they've gotten off to this year, it’s pretty shocking. But I really think there's enough time for them to turn it around. You never know.”

Among the teams not in a postseason spot at Thanksgiving, which one do you expect to make a run?

Albert: “Again, Edmonton. I have heard a lot of great things about Kris Knoblauch from his days with the Rangers’ [American Hockey League] farm team in Hartford. And you’ve got to think that with McDavid, Draisaitl and (Ryan) Nugent-Hopkins, all 100-point scorers a year ago, hopefully they can shore up some of the other areas. But I wouldn't count them out as far as making the playoffs.”

Cuthbert: “Edmonton has obviously the most potential, but they have to start making up ground immediately.”

Who are your early Hart Trophy front-runners as the NHL’s MVP?

Cuthbert: “Well, it’s not Connor McDavid, which is a story in itself. I mean, it’s a photo finish right now. You've got three guys from Vancouver, Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, they’re going to split the votes, which makes it a little more difficult. Having done a couple of Lightning games, Nikita Kucherov is the most untalked about superstar in the League. I mean, what he does, he's just lethal, and I don't know why we don't talk about him a little bit more. What David Pastrnak is doing in the absence of the other guys like Bergeron and Krejci is impressive. I went in there to Boston last week, and coach Jim Montgomery was talking about how he had a meeting with Pastrnak at the end of last year, almost warning him that there was going to be a lot more on his shoulders. He kind of just shook it off like, ‘I know, I'm ready for it.’ And he's been every bit as good, if not better, than in the past. Even William Nylander is in that discussion. In the preseason I would have bet on Connor McDavid, and Leon and Jack Hughes for a variety of reasons. That's not the case yet.”

Albert: “In an epic year for defensemen, Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar are putting up great numbers for their teams. Pettersson and Miller in Vancouver as well. Jack Hughes in New Jersey. Amazing what the Hughes brothers are doing and the hot start they’re off to. I have to [include] the Rangers’ Artemi Panarin as well. He set a team record with a point in 15 straight games to start a season.”

Finally, what storyline most tweaks your interest moving forward this season?

Cuthbert: “The most interesting story for me is the Cale Makar versus Quinn Hughes debate. Everybody's lining up on the side of their guy, and I get that. Both are Norris (Trophy) candidates as the NHL’s top defenseman. They're both Hart Trophy candidates as MVP. It's going to be something I think we watch the whole season. So that's going to be fun all year, maybe even more so because the fan bases get energized about that kind of debate.”

Albert: “I think overall just great divisional battles. There are so many good teams. And if you look at it now, there are probably 12 teams that consider themselves legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. So, I think there are going to be really exciting races on both sides. There are teams out of the playoff picture now [who] made it last year, and vice versa. So, just looking forward to some great races as we head into the second quarter of the season.”

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN?

On Thanksgiving in the U.S. on Thursday, the following 16 teams were on the outside looking in when it came to postseason slots:

Eastern Conference: Philadelphia Flyers, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets.

Western Conference: Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Calgary Flames, Nashville Predators, Minnesota Wild, Edmonton Oilers, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks.

Here’s some news and views of what some of these teams need to do to make the playoffs. Most teams have at least 60 games still to play, so there’s plenty of time remaining.

Best bet to make it: Devils. While the Oilers’ slow start has captured the attention around the League, New Jersey is off to a moribund start despite being the preseason pick of many pundits to represent the East in the conference final. Jack Hughes is healthy again, so let’s see if they can get things turned around by Christmas.

Haven’t lost faith in: Oilers. As bad as they’ve been, some of us can’t get past the talent level here. But the clock is ticking. Missing the playoffs would be disastrous.

Still waiting on: Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres. The expectation heading into the season was that these two teams, along with the Detroit Red Wings, were ready to take the next step and earn a postseason berth from the Atlantic Division. So far, the Red Wings have gotten off to the best start of the three. Buffalo has fought injuries, while Ottawa has battled inconsistency.

Biggest long shots: San Jose Sharks, Columbus Blue Jackets. The Sharks have torn it down to the bare bones as part of their rebuild. Will forward Logan Couture and/or goalie Mackenzie Blackwood be dealt? As for the Blue Jackets, they’ve underachieved, and it starts with enigmatic forwards Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine.

Most intriguing candidates: Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes. Off to impressive starts after being mired in or near the Western Conference basement the past few years. A playoff berth definitely would be ahead of schedule in the big-picture rebuilds for both teams.

QUOTE/UNQUOTE

“In total Andrei Vasilevskiy style, he worked his tail off. This was a date circled on the calendar months ago. We hit the target date and he’s ready. … We’re looking at this as a 62-game run we have here.” -- Lightning coach Jon Cooper on the return of goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who won Friday in his first start since Game 6 of the Eastern Conference First Round against the Toronto Maple Leafs after undergoing back surgery during the offseason

THE SUNDAY LIST

The Tkachuk brothers will face off against each other for the first time this season when Brady and the Senators play Matthew and the Florida Panthers on Monday. Here’s a sample of our favorite Tkachuk brothers’ moments:

1. The First Meeting

More than 40 family and friends were in attendance at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa on Feb. 24, 2019, to see the brothers play against each other in an NHL regular-season game for the first time. Matthew and the Calgary Flames defeated Brady’s Senators 2-1, with Brady scoring Ottawa’s lone goal. Of note: Their entourage wore custom-made shirts that said both “Ottawa” and “Calgary” on the front, and “Tkachuk Brothers” on the back.

2. Brother having brother’s back

Count on your brother for lending a helping hand. Back in June, Matthew suffered a cracked sternum when he was flattened by a clean check from Vegas Golden Knights forward Keegan Kolesar midway through the first period of Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final. How bad was it? Matthew had to ask Brady to physically help him get out of bed to prepare for Game 4, which he played. “I never knew just how tough he was,” Brady said of Matthew.

3. Family affair

During NHL all-star festivities in South Florida last February, the entire family went to the world-famous Elbo Room beach bar in Fort Lauderdale along the Atlantic Ocean shoreline for a night on the town. They even brought their grandma to the festivities. At one point, Brady stood up, grinning ear to ear, before tearing off the sleeves off his Elbo Room t-shirt. A true family affair.

4. TV ad stars

One thing both boys will be quick to tell you: Chantal, their mom, rules the family, even over husband Keith, a former NHL star himself. That’s evident in the Hyundai Canada commercial released a couple of months ago in which she is seen driving while telling her passengers to behave or she’ll have to separate them. We soon learn that she’s talking to Brady and Matthew, who are shoving each other while decked out in full hockey equipment. In the end, Brady is ordered into the back seat. The lesson here: Don’t mess with Chantal.