The Action Network: Canadiens vs. Lightning, Game 5 odds, analysis
Tampa Bay has 3-1 lead in best-of-7 Stanley Cup Final against Montreal
By
Michael Leboff / The Action Network
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Canadiens at Lightning Stanley Cup Final Game 5 odds
Canadiens odds: +170Lightning odds: -200Over/Under: 5Time: 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday
Note: If you're new to betting, the Lightning's -200 odds mean a $200 bet would profit $100 if they win the game. Conversely, the Canadiens' +170 odds mean a $100 bet would net $170. Convert odds using The Action Network's Betting Odds Calculator.
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You could make the argument that the Tampa Bay Lightning put on their best performance of this series in Game 4. That may sound backwards since it was the only contest the Lightning lost so far, but the numbers show that Tampa controlled play on Monday night.
The Bolts attempted 28 more shots, created nine more high-danger scoring chances and won the expected goals battle, 4.07 to 1.65, in all situations. At 5-on-5, the Lightning generated 17 more shot attempts, had a 14-4 edge in high-danger scoring chances and won on xG, 2.76 to 1.14. That is the type of game that Tampa Bay, with all of its finishing talent and world-beating goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, wins nine times out of 10.
Is it possible that the Habs could win with another bend-but-don't-break performance in Game 5? Sure, but I wouldn't count on it. But I also wouldn't count on the ice being so tilted towards Montreal's net. Despite losing the first three games, the Canadiens have put together decent numbers at 5-on-5 against the defending Stanley Cup champions. In fact, Montreal's two best statistical performances in the Stanley Cup Final have come at Amalie Arena, where they posted a 3.69 to 3.17 advantage at 5-on-5 in the first two games of this series.
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Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play. xG numbers and advanced stats cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.
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Those are not dominant numbers by any stretch, and you typically need to get more separation than that to beat the Lightning because of their scoring talent, goaltending and special teams prowess, but when you're trying to come back from a 3-0 series hole (or looking for a reason to bet on a team to do so), you'll take whatever silver linings you can find.
If you're looking at it from the other end of the spectrum, say you're the one holding a ticket on the Lightning to win the Stanley Cup and you want to know how much you should be sweating, you can sometimes turn to the betting market for some comfort.
Montreal's win on Monday night does turn up the pressure a little bit on the Bolts, but oddsmakers still have the Lightning as -2500 favorites to win the series. According to implied win probability, those odds translate to a 96.2% chance that Tampa wins this series. The Lightning sat at -5000 and a 98.04% win probability on the series moneyline ahead of Game 4, so while Montreal's victory on Monday night provided it a lifeline, there's still a pretty steep mountain to climb for the Habs.
That said, those odds could shift drastically should Montreal pull off the upset in Game 5.
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Rolling Parlay vs. Future
Right now the Montreal Canadiens are +1200 to win the Stanley Cup at BetMGM. If you believe that the Habs can pull off the miraculous comeback, you should consider a "Rolling Parlay" vs. just betting the 12/1 on Montreal to win the series.
If the Habs were to win this series, they'd need to take every game, so you can basically create your own parlay by backing the Canadiens for Games 5, 6 and 7 and would likely come out with a better payout than what is being offered on the series moneyline.
Here's how it would work:
If you bet $10 on Montreal to win Game 5 at +170 and they do, you take your original state ($10) and profits ($17) and then re-invest it on Montreal to win Game 6 ($27 total). If they win Game 6, you repeat that same process for Game 7.
The best way to check if your rolling parlay could have better odds than what is being offered on the futures market is to look back at the closing numbers for the prior games in the series to make your assessment of where the market will be for Games 5-7.
Game 1: Tampa Bay -200/Montreal +165Game 2: Tampa Bay -200/Montreal +170Game 3: Tampa Bay -120/Montreal +100Game 4: Tampa Bay -160/Montreal +130Game 5: Tampa Bay -200/Montreal +170\
* - price at the time of writing.
For purposes of this article, we'll assume Habs at +115 as the halfway point between the odds for Game 3 and Game 4, and if the Habs in turn win Game 6, we'll assume further improved odds and used +155. That would mean our rolling parlay would consist of three legs at +170, +115 and +155. If you plug those numbers into
The Action Network's Parlay Calculator
, you'll see that a three-leg bet with those odds should pay out at +1380, which is better than you're getting on the futures market at the current price.
Here's how it would work game-by-game:
$10 bet on Montreal at +170, returns $17$27 bet on Montreal at +115, returns $31.05$58.05 bet on Montreal at +155, returns $89.98Total winnings: $138.03
The rolling parlay is a useful consideration during single-elimination tournaments (Wimbledon, March Madness) and it also provides the added bonus of being able to cash out at any time if you'd like.
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Michael Leboff covers the NHL and more at The Action Network -- a sports media company that builds products and creates content to inform and entertain the sports bettor.*
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