PIT MTL BTN 5.27

NHL.com goes Behind the Numbers to identify key statistics for each of the eight best-of-5 series in the Stanley Cup Qualifiers. Today, a look at the matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens.

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Penalty kill

One key factor in this series will be the Montreal Canadiens' ability to shut down the Pittsburgh Penguins power play. The Canadiens penalty kill was 19th in the NHL this season (78.7 percent). This area likely will need to improve; the Penguins rank second in the League on the man-advantage (21.3 percent) since the 2010-11 season, behind the Washington Capitals (21.6 percent). Pittsburgh was slightly below its accustomed ranking this season (19.9 percent; 16th), but that could be explained by centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and forward Patric Hornqvist each being injured; Crosby missed 28 games, Malkin 14 and Hornqvist 17. With the Penguins expected to be healthy (with the exception of center Nick Bjugstad, who will miss the rest of the season), the Canadiens may have to rely on goalie Carey Price, with an .875 save percentage in his NHL career facing the power play, to be their best penalty-killer. To put this stat in perspective, Price is tied for 17th in that category with Craig Anderson of the Ottawa Senators among goalies to have played at least 300 games since 2007-08, Price's first NHL season.

TOR@PIT: Crosby taps in Hornqvist's dish for PPG

Shot attempts differential

Special teams won't be the only factor to watch in this series. Pittsburgh has the upper hand on the power play, but Montreal has the better 5-on-5 metrics. The Canadiens were second in the NHL this season with a plus-595 shot attempts differential behind the Vegas Golden Knights (plus-621). That means Montreal out-attempted its opponents by 595 at 5-on-5, indicating puck possession is one of their strengths. If the Canadiens succeed in that area, they are more likely to stay out of the penalty box and limit the Penguins' chances with the man-advantage.

Save percentage

Goalies Tristan Jarry and Matt Murray each won 20 games for Pittsburgh this season. Jarry played 33 games, Murray 38. Who should start Game 1 against Montreal? At first glance, Jarry has the edge with a .921 save percentage compared to Murray's .899. But perhaps more importantly, Jarry had a .929 save percentage at even strength compared to .901 for Murray. Murray has plenty of big-game experience having played in 48 Stanley Cup Playoff games, compared to zero for Jarry. But to keep pace with Montreal at even strength, Pittsburgh may want to consider starting Jarry.