Mailbag: Nelson, Coyle give Avalanche depth at center; top playoff contenders post-Deadline

Here is the March 12 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X and Bluesky. Send your questions to @drosennhl on X and @drosennhl.bsky.social on Bluesky, and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

Are playoff teams better served by adding depth players at the Trade Deadline? When was the last time the team that acquired the consensus best player available at the deadline actually went on to win the Stanley Cup? -- @IronCaniac

Depth wins by the Trade Deadline, which is why you have to love the Colorado Avalanche remaking their center depth by acquiring Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle last Friday. If that depth goes behind elite talent (hello Nathan MacKinnon), then it helps teams win the Stanley Cup. Teams are always better suited to add depth before the Deadline. Adding depth players has less impact on the minutes the top players get and doesn't typically disrupt the power play. The benefits are significant, particularly when you begin what you hope will be a long, grinding march to the Stanley Cup Final. There will be injuries and slumps and lines that stop clicking. Depth makes up the difference. There are no risks.

Look at the past Stanley Cup winners.

Last season, the Florida Panthers added Vladimir Tarasenko and Kyle Okposo. Jake Guentzel, who went to the Carolina Hurricanes, was arguably the best player available. In 2023, the Vegas Golden Knights acquired Teddy Blueger and Jonathan Quick, who helped Adin Hill along the path to the Cup. Patrick Kane was traded that year. In 2022, it was Artturi Lehkonen and Josh Manson joining the Avalanche in a year that Claude Giroux and Marc-Andre Fleury were traded. The Tampa Bay Lightning acquired defenseman David Savard in 2021 to shore up their back end. That was the year the Panthers got forward Sam Bennett and defenseman Brandon Montour, moves that of course paid off a few years down the road, but not in 2021. The Lightning added Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman in 2020. They made up a dominant third line with Yanni Gourde.

It's rare that the best player traded before the Deadline helps his team win the Stanley Cup. The closest might be Marian Gaborik when he was traded to the Los Angeles Kings by the Columbus Blue Jackets on March 5, 2014. Gaborik was plagued by injuries that season, but 32 years old and two years removed from a 41-goal season with the New York Rangers. He had 16 points in 19 regular-season games and 22 points in 26 Stanley Cup Playoff games to help Los Angeles win the Cup. Roberto Luongo, Ryan Miller, Martin St. Louis and Thomas Vanek were all traded that year. Considering Gaborik's injury issues, all four would have been more valuable targets but Gaborik had a pedigree, so he fit right into that mix.

Now that the Trade Deadline has passed, it seems that there are true favorites in each conference. Is this going to be the new norm with a higher cap next year? Will there be teams who can afford to load up and some who can't? Is the NHL becoming like the NBA with super teams? As the cap rises year over year, could we see a disparity in which teams can financially afford to be competitive and those who can't? -- @theashcity

We can't have true favorites. It can't be plural. There is only one favorite. There are, however, multiple contenders in each conference, some that right now seem to have a more legitimate chance to go on a deep playoff run, but that's the case every season.

The Panthers are a contender in the Eastern Conference, but so are the Toronto Maple Leafs and Lightning. They play in the same division. One is not a true favorite. All are contenders. The Washington Capitals are a contender. Yes, the Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils have taken a hit. I do question their status as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. I don't the other four, so that's four true favorites in the East? Come on. You can only have one.

The Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars and Avalanche all loaded up before the Deadline. They're all contenders. So are the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers. I put the Kings a notch below, but would anybody be surprised if any of those six teams come out of the Western Conference to play the Stanley Cup Final? No.

As for the future with the cap rising, this is a good thing. Revenues are up. The business is booming. Interest is growing. International hockey is on the rise again. How each team in the NHL handles its business is based on its own internal budget, but there will be opportunity for teams that want to spend. This was where we would be right now if not for the COVID-19 pandemic and the obvious financial implications it created.

Certainly, it's realistic to think the rising cap could impact teams from Canada because of the value of the Canadian dollar versus the value of the U.S. dollar. It's impossible to predict right now the significance of that impact. From a hockey perspective, though, if teams have a budget that is below the cap ceiling, it will put a premium on scouting, drafting and development. The better teams are in those areas the less impact they will feel if their internal budget comes in lower than the cap ceiling. It will also mean the less they will have to feel the need to "load up" before the Deadline.

Which player is going to benefit most from changing teams at the deadline? Also, what's your favorite St. Patrick's Day beer? -- @baYsYckwrYteboY

Here's three players to answer your question, all who went to the Avalanche:

Nelson is Colorado's No. 2 center, the same role he had with the New York Islanders, only now he gets to play behind MacKinnon at 5-on-5 and with MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Valeri Nichushkin and Cale Makar on the power play. The Avalanche are 10th in the NHL with the man-advantage (23.8 percent) and the Islanders are last (12.0 percent). A major bump for Nelson.

Coyle is slotted as Colorado's No. 3 center behind MacKinnon and Nelson. It's a role he's suited to play as an impactful two-way center who can set up offense, handle tough line matchups and kill penalties. He is playoff tested too, and he learned behind one of the best two-way centers to ever play the game, Patrice Bergeron.

Erik Johnson going back to Colorado is the feel-good story of the Trade Deadline. He can still be an effective No. 6 or No. 7 defenseman. Most importantly, he can resume his role as a dressing room leader and a big part of the culture in Denver. It's a comfort zone for Johnson, who played for the Avalanche from 2011-23.

Smithwick's Red Ale.

Teams, though certainly not intentionally, often play down to their opponents. If you're Washington and saw the Metro hand you the division at the Trade Deadline, how do you maintain focus? They've won games recently but really haven't looked good since the Oilers blowout. -- @OnlyHockeyTweet

This has been a talking point around the Capitals for the past week or so, maybe even longer. It's something coach Spencer Carbery has been asked about and has addressed. It's a legitimate concern and something the coaching staff and the players are aware of.

The Capitals, for the rest of the regular season, will have to manufacture desperation because it's unlikely they will be challenged for first place in the Metropolitan Division. The Hurricanes are 12 points back. If it gets close, it'll only be because the Capitals are not playing up to the standard that they've set for themselves. It doesn't help that only one of Washington's next nine games are against a division opponent (Philadelphia Flyers on March 20). They do play seven of their last eight games against divisional opponents, including two against Carolina and two against the Columbus Blue Jackets, who will be trying to secure a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference.

The Capitals have Alex Ovechkin's historic chase of Wayne Gretzky's NHL goals record that should keep their focus because all eyes will be on them. They are currently scheduled to play six games on national television in the United States for the rest of this season. The reason, of course, is Ovechkin and his chase at history, but the attention on Washington because of Ovechkin should provide motivation to be at their best.

What other players on the Islanders besides the rentals got interest at the Deadline and what should we expect from general manager Lou Lamoriello in the offseason? -- @alfrdyo9

It's not clear if forwards Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anders Lee were ever being shopped or if they were drawing interest from other teams. Each has one season remaining on their contract. It will be easier to trade one or both in the offseason, or before the Deadline next season.

Lamoriello, the Islanders general manager, spoke to the media Saturday and was clear with his goal for the offseason and beyond, which is for the team to get younger. They did that by trading Nelson to the Avalanche, getting Colorado's top prospect, 20-year-old forward Calum Ritchie, a first-round pick in the 2026 or 2027 NHL Draft and a conditional third-round pick in 2028. That was a big win for the Islanders. Yes, for the Avalanche too, but the Islanders did really well in that trade.

The expectation is for the Islanders to be active in the offseason, pursuing the goal of getting younger. They'll likely test the market on Lee and Pageau. Defensemen Scott Mayfield and Adam Pelech are signed long term, but are in their 30s, so the Islanders could shop them around too. They'll dive into free agency, and I wouldn't rule them out getting involved in reasonable offer sheets to pending restricted free agents. They have the capital to make it work, including seven picks in the 2025 NHL Draft.

The Islanders certainly aren't punting on this season. They feel they're still in it and they will push for a playoff spot. No matter what happens, the offseason will be big for their immediate future.