NHL EDGE stats: Brady Tkachuk’s back-to-back hat tricks for Panthers

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at three advanced stats storylines surrounding Brady Tkachuk's back-to-back hat tricks for the Florida Panthers.

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Brady Tkachuk was acquired by the Florida Panthers from the Ottawa Senators during the offseason to join forces with his brother, Matthew Tkachuk, to boost the team, which won back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2024 and 2025 but missed the playoffs last season. Tkachuk was off to a quiet start with no goals and one assist during his first six games with Florida before exploding for seven points (six goals, one assist) in his past two games, including back-to-back hat tricks, in wins against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Oct. 13 and Vancouver Canucks on Oct. 15 (including overtime goal in latter game).

Brady Tkachuk became the third player in NHL history (others: Petri Skriko, Nov. 18-21, 1986; Cy Denneny, Feb. 21-24, 1923) to score natural hat tricks in consecutive games. The last NHL player with hat tricks in back-to-back games was Mikko Rantanen for the Dallas Stars during the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Here are three advanced stats behind Tkachuk's offensive outburst:

1. Scoring from middle of ice

Four of Tkachuk’s six goals during this torrid stretch have come from the middle of the ice, two from the low-slot region (high-danger goals) and two from the high-slot region (mid-range goals). The other two goals: one scored from the right-point region (long-range goal) and one scored from the outside-right region.

Eleven of Tkachuk’s 25 shots on goal this season have come from high-danger zones (97th percentile among forwards; just outside NHL top 10), while seven have been from mid-range shots on goal (91st percentile at position). Since the start of the puck and player tracking era (2021-22), Brady Tkachuk ranks third in high-danger shots on goal (650) behind Zach Hyman of the Edmonton Oilers (727) and John Tavares of the Toronto Maple Leafs (666).

As the Panthers have dealt with major injuries to veteran forwards Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand early on this season, the team has been playing the Tkachuk brothers on the same line more often in recent games. This has showcased Brady and Matthew’s obvious chemistry from playing together growing up and also recently for the United States in the 4 Nations Face-Off in 2025 and at the 2026 Winter Olympics (won gold medal).

Matthew Tkachuk has had a major hand in Brady’s back-to-back hat tricks with four assists on his brother’s goals, including two primary helpers; Matthew totaled six assists during that two-game span. The Tkachuk brothers also both assisted on Carter Verhaeghe's goal Oct. 13, meaning they have factored in on the same goal five times during the past two games, including two power-play goals.

2. Shot speed

Brady Tkachuk ranks in the 95th percentile among forwards in 80-90 mph shot attempts (six) this season and in the 92nd percentile at the position in hardest shot (89.31 mph). Of those six 80-90 mph shot attempts, two resulted in goals -- both coming in the third period on Oct. 15 against the Canucks (81.70 mph at 11:11 of period, 80.91 mph at 19:47). His back-to-back hat tricks came on 10 shots on goal in the two games, and he’s suddenly tied for fifth in the NHL in goals (six in eight games) and only three behind NHL leader Kirill Kaprizov (nine in eight games).

Tkachuk has had a hardest shot of at least 92.00 mph in all five previous seasons during the NHL’s puck and player tracking era (since 2021-22), with the hardest shot during that span coming in 2023-24 (96.97 mph); although it’s a small sample size, Tkachuk’s bounce-back stretch has him on pace to exceed his career high in goals from that same season (37 in 2023-24).

3. Offensive zone time

Brady Tkachuk continues to rank among the NHL leaders in offensive zone time percentage; this season, he ranks seventh in the League in that category (50.6 percent) and in the 99th percentile among forwards. Last season with the Senators, Tkachuk ranked third in the NHL in offensive zone time percentage (48.6 percent) behind Shayne Gostisbehere (49.6 percent) and Andrei Svechnikov (49.3 percent) of the Carolina Hurricanes.

NHL EDGE IQ insights: Of Brady Tkachuk’s six goals during the past two games, four have come on offensive zone plays, while the other two have come off the rush (fewer than five seconds after puck crosses offensive blue line). Tkachuk’s highest “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR) attempts on his goals this season were both of his power-play goals scored on offensive zone plays against the Blue Jackets on Oct. 13 (high-probability attempts with PGRs of 49.48 percent and 34.10 percent). Tkachuk also scored two goals on low-probability attempts during those past two games (PGRs of 3.46 percent on offensive zone play, 2.26 percent off rush on Oct. 15).

Tkachuk’s early impact, backed by elite advanced stats, could keep him in contention for the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy and/or help the Panthers contend for another Stanley Cup title despite their early season injuries. But for now, just a glimpse of Brady’s high ceiling has Florida back in playoff contention, while the Tkachuk brothers already are making noise as one of the League’s top duos.