Stanley Cup Final Betting Preview

When the Florida Panthers last appeared in the Stanley Cup Final in 1996, the all-time series against their opponent, the Colorado Avalanche, was a total of nine games.

The all-time series against this year's Cup Final opponent, the Vegas Golden Knights, is 10 games.

Despite the minimal history between the two teams -- and little historical betting data for long layoffs as the Panthers wait for Game 1 on Saturday after advancing on May 24 -- there are a few betting trends for both teams from this season and past seasons to consider when browsing Stanley Cup odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Puck Line

Vegas was fine against the puck line in the regular season (42-40, +0.4% ROI), while Florida was not so good (33-49, -14.1%).

Since the postseason began five weeks ago, both teams have been sensational: Vegas is 11-6, while Florida is 12-4. But they've played just nine combined games as the favorite.

At first glance, the ATS (against the spread) record of favorites in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final since the 2005-06 season is poor; favorites are 6-11 (.353) against the spread with an ROI of -1.6%.

But the margin of failed cover in 10 of those 11 ATS losses was one-half goal, i.e., the 1.5-goal favorite won the game by one goal. Only twice since the 2006 Stanley Cup Final has the favorite -- the home team in 16 of 17 instances -- lost Game 1; the Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Chicago Blackhawks in 2015 and the Dallas Stars in 2020.

While the outright win is relevant to moneyline betting, it's also relevant to puck-line betting. Historically, repeated small margins of failed covers that contribute to a poor overall ATS record are often followed by market corrections.

One goal is the most common margin of victory in NHL games, though it doesn't occur at an outrageous rate of 91 percent of games that result in an ATS loss for the favorite. For example, the rate for the entire 2023 postseason will finish below 50 percent.

Vegas went 2-0 against the puck line in two games against Florida this season.

Game 1 Puck Line

Panthers +1.5 (-250)
Golden Knights -1.5 (+190)

Moneyline

Moneyline favorites have dominated the Cup Final since the 2005-06 season. Their 15-2 record in Game 1 is part of a 53-15 record (.779) in Games 1-4.

They're even more dominant in Games 1-4 when entering a winning streak: 24-6 (.800) with an ROI of +32.6%.

Earlier this postseason, the Golden Knights had two five-game winning streaks. The second ended with a 3-2 overtime loss to the Stars in Game 4 of the Western Conference final, which ultimately meant it would be impossible to reach the Stanley Cup Final on a winning streak.

That's not the case for the Panthers, who will be just the fifth team in the last 20 years to carry a winning streak of at least five games into Game 1. The two previous teams to do that -- the Avalanche last year and Boston Bruins in 2019 -- both won Game 1.

The Panthers weren't good against the moneyline in regular-season games when entering on a winning streak, though they've been elite in the postseason. After going 7-10 (ROI of -41.3%) in the regular season, they're 7-1 (ROI of +104%) in the postseason.

In the regular season, the teams split the moneylines, one game apiece.

Game 1 moneylines

Golden Knights (-135)
Panthers (+115)

Total

It's been a dreadful season for the Over. The league-wide Over ROI for the regular season and postseason of -5.6% will be the lowest in 10 years and second-lowest in 15 years.

The Panthers have contributed to those poor returns this postseason.

The Over went 5-2 in the Panthers' first seven postseason games but is 1-8 since Game 1 of their second-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. It could've entered the Stanley Cup Final on a nine-game losing streak without the two late goals in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final.

The Over for Vegas, meanwhile, has been hot and cold throughout the postseason after a hot-and-cold final three months of the regular season. The Over has four separate losing (two) and winning streaks (two) of at least three games.

Since 2006, the Over in the Stanley Cup Final has finished with an ROI of -10% or worse more times (seven) than it's finished with a positive ROI of any number (six).

The Over went 0-2 in the two Florida-Vegas games in the regular season.

Game 1 total

Over 5.5 (-115)
Under 5.5 (-105)

You can view updated Stanley Cup Final odds and more online sports betting opportunities, including live betting and parlays, at the BetMGM online sportsbook.