Tkachuk on pace to challenge Pettersson for Calder Trophy

Behind the Numbers is a weekly series where NHL.com examines both player and team trends with an emphasis being placed on advanced statistics. This week we look at the two leading competitors for the Calder Trophy, awarded to the NHL's top rookie.

Ottawa Senators forward Brady Tkachuk is quietly making a case to surpass Vancouver Canucks center Elias Pettersson as the front-runner for the Calder Trophy.
Pettersson took a commanding position in the race by scoring 17 points (10 goals and seven assists) in his first 11 games. But since Nov. 10, Petterson has come back to earth and Tkachuk has made up significant ground, a trend further bolstered by the underlying numbers.
Tkachuk leads all NHL rookies with six points (three goals, three assists) in four games since Nov. 20 and has 16 points (nine goals, seven assists) in 14 games this season; he missed 11 games with a lower-body injury. Pettersson has one goal and one assist in his past four games and has 21 points (13 goals, eight assists) in 21 games; he missed six games with an upper-body injury.
Tkachuk has better possession numbers (53.18 SAT) than Pettersson (49.82 SAT), despite starting in the offensive zone at 5-on-5 40.57 percent of the time. Pettersson, meanwhile, starts 66.67 percent of 5-on-5 shifts in the offensive zone, suggesting Tkachuk plays more of a 200-foot game because of the added defensive responsibility.

To further illustrate the difference in style of play, Tkachuk has 32 hits in 14 games, an average of 2.3 per game. Among rookie forwards who have played at least 14 games, Sammy Blais of the St. Louis Blues (3.6) is the only forward with more hits per game. Pettersson has 11 hits (0.5), tied for No. 21 among qualified rookies.
Forwards Alex Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals (2.1) and Gabriel Landeskog of the Colorado Avalanche (2.7) are the two Calder Trophy winners since 2006 to average at least two hits per game as rookies.
To predict which player is more likely to sustain his current scoring pace, let's turn to shooting percentage. Tkachuk is scoring on 20.9 percent of his shots and Pettersson is converting on 27.7 percent.
History suggests neither player will finish above the NHL-best 23.4 percent, achieved by Avalanche center Alex Kerfoot and Vegas Golden Knights center William Karlsson last season, the highest dating back to 2011-12.
New York Rangers forward Petr Prucha (23.1 in 2005-06), Pittsburgh Penguins center Jordan Staal (22.1 in 2006-07), Dallas Stars forward Fabian Brunnstrom (21.0 in 2008-09), Columbus Blue Jackets forward Sonny Milano (20.3 last season) and Senators forward Patrick Eaves (20.0 in 2005-06) are the only rookies since 2005-06 to play more than 50 games and have a shooting percentage of at least 20.0 percent.

Tkachuk is averaging 3.07 shots per game, highest among rookies, compared to Pettersson's 2.24, which ranks fourth.
It's worth noting Pettersson has more time on ice per game (18:15; first among rookie forwards) than Tkachuk (15:13; third) but with continued production, Tkachuk could close that gap. Even with less ice time, Tkachuk could benefit from the Senators scoring the third-most goals per game (3.56) compared to the Canucks, which rank No. 21 with 2.85 per game entering Wednesday.
Tkachuk is on pace for 80 points (45 goals, 35 assists) in 71 games and Pettersson for 76 points (47 goals, 29 assists) in 76 games. If each remains healthy, Tkachuk could outproduce Pettersson despite much different usage.
Regardless of their season totals, each could approach elite company in New York Islanders center Mathew Barzal (85 points, 2017-18); Penguins center Evgeni Malkin (85, 2006-07); Ovechkin (106, 2005-06) and Winnipeg Jets forward Teemu Selanne (132, 1992-93) to be Calder Trophy winners with more than 80 points dating back to the 1990-91 season.