Kraken Hope To Defy Draft Lottery Odds

A little luck with some ping-pong balls could go a long way for the Kraken in next week’s NHL Draft Lottery, which represents a better-than-average chance for teams to grab prospects designated as potential gamechangers.

The Kraken enter Tuesday’s televised 4 p.m. PT lottery with the eighth-best odds of securing the No. 1 overall pick at this year’s 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft, taking place June 26 and 27 in Buffalo, from a field that’s viewed as stronger than in some recent seasons. With elite forward talent and a strong pool of defensemen, this year’s crop could mean near-term help on the way for some teams, particularly those picking among the top five or six positions.

While the Kraken need help to make it that deep, it’s worth noting the New York Islanders a year ago had only the 10^th best odds after contending for the playoffs much of the season but nonetheless won the lottery and secured the No. 1 pick used on record-setting rookie defenseman and likely Calder Trophy winner Matthew Schaefer. Whether the Kraken follow a similar path depends on how the 14 ping pong balls tumble in Tuesday’s live ESPN broadcast in a process that takes some advance reading work to fully understand.

This will be the second year that the lottery is being televised live at the NHL Network’s Secaucus, New Jersey studio as opposed to pre-recorded.

Here’s how it works: The lottery since 1995 has been weighted to disincentivize NHL teams from completely “tanking” entire seasons to secure the best draft picks. As seen by the Islanders, a team can now contend for the playoffs most of the season and still come away with the best pick while the worst squads in the league might tumble multiple spots.

To be sure, the NHL still wants to help truly struggling teams, and that’s why they do get the higher odds. But there are no guarantees.

As things stand, the Vancouver Canucks enter with a 25.5% chance at securing the No. 1 pick, given their league worst record this past season. Chicago is next at 13.5% followed by the New York Rangers at 11.5%.

The Kraken enter with a 7.5% chance at picking first overall.

Two separate draws will be held Tuesday; the first one determining the No. 1 overall pick and the next for the No. 2 overall choice. After that, the remaining teams will be realigned according to their order of finish last season.

Teams can only move up by a maximum of 10 spots. That means only teams among the bottom 11 finishers – the Kraken being one – are eligible for the No. 1 overall selection. If a team among the No. 12-16 finishers wins the draw, they move up 10 spots, and the No. 1 pick goes to the squad with the NHL’s worst record.

It works the same way for determining the No. 2 overall pick.

So, the Islanders having the 10^th best odds a year ago were eligible to claim the No. 1 overall pick because they were within the 10-spot limit a team could move up.

But the Utah Mammoth had only the 14^th best odds, and thus, when they won the next draw for the No. 2 pick, they could only advance 10 spots to No. 4. The No. 2 pick at that point went to the San Jose Sharks, as they had the league’s worst record.

So, here’s how the draw itself works: A total of 14 ping pong balls – numbered 1-14 – will be used and four of them drawn to create a four-number combination. Teams will have already been assigned a specific set of random four-number combination possibilities based on the odds of them being chosen.

The Kraken will have been assigned 75 different four-number combinations out of a possible 1,000 that could be drawn. Vancouver, with the highest lottery odds, will have 185 different combinations and hope one of them is drawn.

As each ping pong ball drops, odds change and teams are eliminated as it no longer becomes possible for any of their combinations to work. The TV audience will be told live which teams are still in contention to match one of their four-number combinations.

Once the No. 1 overall winner is determined, a second draw will occur for the No. 2 spot. If the same team wins both draws, a redraw will occur.

After the top two slots are determined, the remainder of the field will draft in inverse proportion to where they finished the past season. As for playoff teams, the Stanley Cup winner drafts No. 32 and the finalist at No. 31 while the rest of the field drafts in an inverse order to their regular season finish at spots 17-30.

More often than not, the lottery draws are straightforward when it comes to determining the No. 1 selection. Three times in the past five years, the No. 1 pick went to the worst-finishing team.

But the No. 2 slot has been all over the place since the NHL implemented changes in 2021 that reduced the number of picks determined by the lottery from three to two. Only once since has the team with the second highest lottery odds retained the No. 2 pick, that being the Chicago Blackhawks two years ago.

Among teams that moved up to the No. 2 slot from lower odds were the Kraken ahead of their inaugural 2021 draft, when they entered with the third best chance but advanced one position in the lottery and picked Matty Beniers.

One year later, the Kraken entered with the third best lottery odds but fell back a spot to No. 4. As it happened that year, Shane Wright, a longtime consensus No. 1 overall selection, wound up dropping three spots to the Kraken.

Neither of those first two Kraken drafts involved what would be considered an above average field of talent. And while this year’s isn’t expected to produce an immediate impact performer akin to Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini, taken at No. 1 the last two years, respectively, by Chicago and San Jose, Penn State left wing Gavin McKenna is this summer’s consensus top pick and touted as a potential franchise player.