5 THINGS: Flyers vs. Lightning

Starting a grueling stretch of five games in seven nights, Alain Vigneault's Philadelphia Flyers (8-9-4) will host Jon Cooper's two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning (14-5-4) on Sunday evening. Game time at the Wells Fargo Center is 6:00 p.m. ET (NBCSP, 97.5 The Fanatic).

GAME NOTES
This is the third and final meeting of the regular season series between the teams for 2021-22. The Flyers are 0-1-1 to date against the Lightning. Overall, the Flyers have not won a single game against Tampa since a 5-3 victory in Tampa on Dec. 29, 2017. In the time since then, the Flyers have gone, 0-6-3 in the last nine head-to-head clashes.
On Nov. 18, 2021, in Philadelphia, the Flyers led 2-0 after the first period but Tampa struck back for two goals in the second period. In the third period, Philly held the Lightning to a mere 3 shots (12-3 Flyers edge) but a severe angle goal by Steven Stamkos gave Tampa a 3-2 lead with 1:56 left in regulation. In the final 10 seconds, Claude Giroux scored directly off a faceoff (2nd goal of the game) to force overtime. After a thrilling, back-and-forth sudden death frame, Tampa won an anticlimactic shootout, 2-0.
The.teams rematched in Tampa on Nov. 23. The Flyers outshot Tampa, 12-6, in the first period but Tampa dominated the final 40 minutes and breezed to a 4-0 victory that could have been more lopsided if not for the play of Carter Hart. Andrei Vasilevskiy earned the shutout victory for the Lightning. Zach Bogosian, Stamkos,Corey Perry and Alex Barré-Boulet tallied for Tampa.
The Flyers enter this game needing to end a seven-game winless skid (0-5-2) that started with the Nov. 18 shootout loss to the Lightning. On Wednesday of this week, the Flyers suffered a 4-1 road loss to the New York Rangers. Morgan Frost tallied the lone Philadelphia goal. Tampa enters the game having won back-to-back contests including a 3-2 overtime win in Boston on Friday evening. Stamkos scored the winning goal in overtime. Overall, the Lightning have points in eight of their last 10 games (7-2-1).
Here are five things to track in Sunday's game in Philadelphia:
1) Defensive structure and playmaking.
The Flyers have been in a deep offensive funk -- both at even strength and the power play -- dating back their final game of October when they were shut out in Calgary. In that 16-game span, the Flyers have mustered a measly 1.69 goals per game. The power play has gone 4-for-51 (7.8 percent) in the last 16 games.
The last time the Flyers had a comparable stretch of offensive frustration was the start of the 2013-14, when the Flyers stumbled out of the gates with a 4-10-1 record through the first 15 games. The team scored just 1.47 goals per game in that stretch and the power play went 6-for-60 (10 percent). A line brawl against the Washington Capitals, a 1-0 win the next day against the New Jersey Devils and a four-goal game in a win against the Edmonton Oilers the next weekend was the turning point of the entire regular season. Over the rest of the season, the Flyers went on to post a 38-20-9 record and earn a playoff spot. The Flyers finished the season averaging 3.15 goals per game (2nd in the NHL) including a 22.2 percent success rate on the power play (3rd in the NHL).
That was then and this is now. The current-day Flyers are an older team, playing in a deeper and tougher overall division and dealing with a number of key injuries that have riddled the lineup. Right now, there are no thoughts of a rapid 180-degree turnaround ala 2013-14. At present, the Flyers are looking to get their 200-foot game back in order,
The Flyers got off to a 7-3-2 start through the first 12 games of the 2021-22 season. The team's underlying analytics were unfavorable but this was largely due to a tendency to have very poor second periods: first periods and third periods were fine. Overall, half of the equation in the Flyers' early success was stellar goaltending from Hart and Martin Jones. The other half was improved defensive structure that gave the goalies a fair chance to see the puck and make saves. Even if the opposing shot volumes and locations (largely driven by the Flyers' second period issues) needed improvement, video study showed that the Flyers goalies did not a lot of back-door plays, outnumbered situations in the slot, heavy screens or multi-shot flurries in prime range; the types of chances where a netminder has little to no chance at a save.
What has happened of late is that, as the Flyers offensive frustrations have mounted, the team's defensive structure has suffered. The Flyers goalies have been largely set up to fail of late, and the drag-down effect has also seen a couple stoppable chances end up in the net, too.
Over the last two days at practice, the Flyers focused largely on both off-puck play and defensive structure. They also focused on players making plays with the puck in tight quarters; an area of execution that has significantly lacking for the last month-plus. The team also worked on the power play again, juggling personnel again (see next item below).
With the Flyers playing five games in seven nights, Friday's practice on Saturday was the last one the team will be able to hold until around Dec. 13. In order to have a successful stretch of five games, it's a must for the Flyers to be significantly better on both sides of the puck than they've been of late.
2. The search for offensive chemistry continues.
With Joel Farabee (shoulder injury) sidelined on a week-to-week basis, Derick Brassard (hip) not yet ready to return to the lineup, and top-pairing defenseman and vital puck-mover Ryan Ellis (lower-body) unavailable in 17 of the last 18 games and still out week-to-week, the Flyers are still trying to find combinations that click. Kevin Hayes returned to the lineup in Wednesday's game against the Rangers. The same night, Farabee was lost during the first period.
The Flyers juggled 5-on-5 and power play combinations at practice on Friday and Saturday. The projected starting lineup (subject to change) is as follows:
28 Claude Giroux - 14 Sean Couturier - 93 Cam Atkinson
48 Morgan Frost - 13 Kevin Hayes - 11 Travis Konecny
25 James van Riemsdyk - 21 Scott Laughton - 17 Zack MacEwen
23 Oskar Lindblom - 82 Connor Bunnaman - 71 Max Willman
9 Ivan Provorov - 70 Rasmus Ristolainen
6 Travis Sanheim - 61 Justin Braun
3 Keith Yandle - 24 Nick Seeler
79 Carter Hart
[35 Martin Jones]
Power play unit 1: Hayes (left side), Couturier (net-front), Giroux (right side),Atkinson (slot), Yandle (point).
Power play unit 2: Ristolainen (left side), van Riemsdyk (netfront), Konecny (slot), Frost (right), Provorov (center point).
3. Inside the Numbers.
The Lightning have scored first in 13 of their 23 games played so far, posting a 9-1-3 record in those games. When giving up the first goal, the Lightning are 5-4-1. One of the wins came at the Flyers' expense back on Nov. 18. Philly has scored first in 10 of 21 games, posting a 6-1-3 record. When trailing first, the Flyers are only 2-8-1.
Although the Flyers grabbed a 2-0 lead against Tampa in the first period the first time the teams played each other this season, that has not been the norm for the Lightning. The defending champs enjoy an overall 21-11 goal differential in their favor in first periods. In second periods, the Lightning hold a 22-18 goal differential to the positive. Tampa has actually been outscored, 25-31, in third periods. The Flyers, meanwhile, still hold a 17-14 goal edge in first periods but they've been outscored 15-27 (and outshot 200-260) in second periods and a once-favorable third period goal differential is now a 17-20 deficit. A once dead-even third period shot differential has deteriorated to a 214-223 deficit.

4. Behind Enemy Lines: Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning remain without two vital players in their lineup. Brayden Point (upper-body injury) will be out at least another couple weeks. On Saturday, Nikita Kucherov (lower-body, Oct. 26 surgery) skated for the first time since his injury. Kucherov is not yet close to returning but Saturday's skate was an important step in his rehab.
On Saturday in Boston, Stamkos scored at 1:31 of overtime (12th goal of the season) to stake down a 3-2 win over the Bruins. Vasilevskiy turned aside of 37 of 39 shots to earn the win in net. Tampa also got goals from rookie Taylor Raddysh (shorthanded, first goal in the NHL) and veteran Ondrej Palat (6th), while defenseman Mikhail Sergachev notched two assists.
With Tampa playing in a back-to-back situation and Vasilevskiy having had a very busy night in Boston, the Flyers are likely to see a familiar face in the opposing net in Sunday's game: Brian Ellott. In four starts this season, "Moose" has gone 2-1-1 with a 3.16 save percentage across 247 minutes played.
Entering Sunday's game, Stamkos leads the Lightning with 26 points (12g, 14a). He's followed by defenseman Victor Hedman (5g, 18a), Alex Killorn (8g, 12a), Anthony Cirelli (8g, 8a) and Palat (6g, 8a).
As members of the Ontario Hockey League's Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds in 2017-18, Raddysh and fellow rookie Boris Katchouk were regular linemates with Morgan Frost. The trio tore up the league in the second half of the season after Raddysh came over to the Soo via trade. Both Raddysh and Katchouk are now in their respective fourth pro seasons, and first in the NHL after coming up together through the Greyhounds and the AHL's Syracuse Crunch. Raddysh has dressed in 22 of 23 games this season. Katchouk (0g, 3a) has dressed in 15 games.
Projected lineup (subject to change):
18 Ondrej Palat - 91 Steven Stamkos - 12 Alex Barré-Boulet
17 Alex Killorn - 71 Anthony Cirelli - 82 Gabriel Fortier
14 Pat Maroon - 41 Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - 10 Corey Perry
13 Boris Katchouk - 79 Ross Colton - 16 Taylor Raddysh
77 Victor Hedman - 44 Jan Rutta
27 Ryan McDonagh - 81 Erik Cernak
98 Mikhail Sergachev - 24 Zach Bogosian
1 Brian Elliott
[88 Andrei Vasilevskiy]
5. Players to Watch: Hedman and Atkinson
The Norris Trophy winner as the NHL's best defenseman in 2017-18 and the Conn Smythe Trophy winner as playoff MVP in the Stanley Cup winning 2019-20 campaign for the Lightning, some have said that Hedman hasn't been at the top of his game this season from an off-puck standpoint. It's all relative, however. Hedman is still an elite all-around NHL defenseman, is averaging a point-per-game offensively and logging a massive 25:21 of ice time. He's also recorded 34 blocked shots and 38 credited hits.
Cam Atkinson's Flyers career started with a flourish. He racked up six goals and seven points across the season's first five games. Since that time, he's only scored once: an overtime winner at home against Calgary. Of late,Atkinson has been getting some scoring chances again but pucks have not been going in. He did assist on Frost's goal on Wednesday, tying up a defender near the net as Frost poked home the puck,, Playing now on the top line with Couturier and Giroux, Atkinson wll have an important opportunity to get himself back in the goal-scoring column. With Farabee out of the lineup for a few weeks, getting Atkinson scoring again has become even more vital. Ditto the likes of Couturier and James van Riemsdyk.