Don’t Turn Your Back On Friday Night – The New York Rangers are in town tonight, providing the opposition for the middle match of the Caps’ three-game homestand.
Caps defenseman Matt Roy, out with a lower body ailment since departing last Saturday’s game in Tampa in the second period, skated on his own for the first time on Friday morning, but he will not suit up tonight against the Rangers; the Caps will go with the same lineup they put on the ice in Wednesday’s win over Pittsburgh.
The Rangers are coming in hot. The NHL’s youngest team has won four straight games – by a combined score of 16-5 – after being blanked by Boston in its season opener.
“I think they're doing a good job as a group,” says Caps coach Spencer Carbery of the Rangers’ early season success. “They obviously have one of the top goaltenders in the world, but I think from forwards to [defense], to their tracking to their commitment to defend, I think it's coming from everybody in their room.”
Shutdown Checklist – In Wednesday night’s home opener, a 5-3 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins, the three member of the P-L Dubois line – Dubois, Alex Tuch and Tom Wilson – did a stalwart job of not only shutting down Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby line and keeping it off the scoresheet, but they also contributed a goal apiece at 5-on-5 to Washington’s offensive cause that evening.
At night’s end, Crosby was saddled with his first pointless, minus-4 game in nearly four years, since a Nov. 2, 2022 game at Buffalo, a game in which Tuch was involved as a member of the Sabres; he scored one of their goals in a 6-3 win that night.
After Dubois skated through his first season with the Caps in 2024-25, I wrote a piece for W Magazine positing that his ’24-25 season was one of the best this century for a two-way center, supporting the theory with numbers that showed why he and his linemates – most typically Wilson and Connor McMichael that season – were so dominant at both ends of the ice.
Here’s an excerpt that should help explain just how effective Dubois was in his first season, and why he was missed so much last season, when he was limited to just 29 games:
Per the hockey analytics site naturalstattrick.com, Dubois was on the ice for 73 goals scored at 5-on-5 in 82 games in 2024-25 (tied with Sidney Crosby for third most among all NHL forwards) and only 44 goals against (plus-29 at 5-on-5), all while taking 47.98 percent of his face-offs in the offensive zone. Since 2007-08 – when naturalstattrick.com began tracking data – only 119 forwards have had a season in which they have been on the ice for 70 or more goals scored by his team at 5-on-5.
Of those 119 player seasons, only three have managed the feat while taking less than 50 percent of their face-offs in the offensive zone, and only two of them have done so over a full season of 82 games. The first of the two is the aforementioned Barkov, the Florida center and three-time Selke Trophy winner as the NHL’s top defensive forward. In 2018-19 – a year in which he finished fifth in Selke balloting – Barkov was on the ice for 70 goals for and 64 against (plus-6 at 5-on-5) that season, while taking just 45.63 percent of his face-offs in the offensive zone. Offensively, he had a monster season with 35 goals and 96 points. The Panthers totaled 86 points that season, missing the playoffs.
Dubois’ 2024-25 season with Washington was arguably even more impressive, despite Dubois’ 20 goals and 66 points being well under Barkov’s numbers from ’18-19. Dubois averaged just 17:18 per night in ice time (15:04 at even strength) compared to Barkov’s 22:21 (16:46 at even strength). Furthermore, Barkov averaged 2.3 points per 60 minutes in 2018-19, while Dubois outdid him (2.41 points per 60) in 2024-25.
The Caps saw a 20-point improvement in the standings from 91 points in 2023-24 to 111 last season, enough to put them atop the Eastern Conference standings at season’s end.
Acquired to fill a largely defensive role, Dubois did so with aplomb. But he also landed in the top 30 (tied for 28th) among all NHL forwards with 52 points at even strength. Including special teams, Dubois totaled 66 points (20 goals, 46 assists) in his first season in Washington. The assist and point totals represent career highs.
Fast forward to now, and the addition of Alex Tuch to the left side of that line with Dubois and Wilson. In Tuch and Wilson, Dubois has a pair of relatively rare right-shot wingers. They’re rare in that, since the start of the 2022-23 season, they’re two of only 10 forwards in the League to average 2:15 per night or more in power play ice time and 1:45 or more in shorthanded ice time.
Having such well-rounded, 200-foot players on the same line is a luxury, and only one other team in the NHL has two such players; Florida has Barkov and Sam Reinhart.
“I think the best defense is offense,” states Dubois. “I always believe in that, so I think the more we can have the puck, keep it, and almost play keep away with it, I think you'll set yourself up in a good spot. But then when you don't have it, you still have to be able to defend. And those two guys can obviously defend really well.
“Our goal is just to have the puck. So, because there's so many good players in this league, if you let them control the puck and control the play, at some point, they'll find something, no matter how good you are defensively. So, I think it starts with that. But we had a [defensive] zone shift the other night, and then it ends in a 2-on-0 [with Tuch scoring for the Caps]. So, just to be able to hold the fort as long as possible, and then to be able to reattack, that play out there showed what they can do out there with the puck and without it.”
Factor in the speed, the size and the experience that each of the three players brings to the table on a nightly basis, and going up against those three in a given game can make for a long night, especially here at Capital One Arena where Carbery has last change and can control the matchups.
The coach also hints that some of those special teams minutes for Tuch and Wilson – the only two Washington forwards who play regularly on both special teams – could see their minutes managed some, since the Caps have sufficient depth with which to do so.
“I think it just gives you two guys that are 200-foot wingers that are very, very intelligent – both sides offensively and defensively,” says Carbery. “And the minutes thing is something that that we'll also monitor too, because they're bigger guys you’ve got to be careful about. But I'm trying to keep them [lower on special teams] and because I want their 5-on-5 minutes to be really productive as well.
“So yeah, they're just two really, really good two-way wingers that are in a rare class of being that good in the League, offensively and defensively. And I think the start that they've got off to, they see the game very, very similar. And then Dubie, on top of that, as you've seen before – whether it was [Aliaksei Protas] and Willie or now Tucky and Willie, is a good centerman to facilitate two guys that play on both sides of the puck so well.”
Virtually all of the 10 NHL forwards who routinely chew up both power play and shorthanded minutes are veterans, and few rookies and young players get the opportunity to do both in the modern NHL. Wilson’s rise to that status was gradual; he didn’t start killing penalties until his third NHL season and wasn’t on Washington’s power play until the season after the Caps won the Cup, Wilson’s sixth in the circuit.
“I actually still remember the first preseason game where I had PK, power play, and even strength,” Wilson recollects. [Blaine Forsythe], our old power play coach, told me I was going to be on the power play that night, and I was like, ‘Holy shit! I’ve got a lot on my on my mind.’
“And once you do it for a little while, it just becomes normal. I think it's nice right now. We're we're deep at 5-on-5, so after a kill, I can come off and get a bit of a breather. You don't have to go right back out at 5-on-5; we’ve got different guys to utilize. In the third period, we were killing quite a bit [Wednesday], but you're deep, so you know you get a bit of a break. On special teams heavy nights, you're not playing like 24 minutes, so that's good.
“But I think every guy wants to play as much as possible and play in every scenario. I always grew up wanting to be a guy that could adapt to any game that's being played and be out there in every situation. And once you once you start doing it, it just kind of becomes normal. But it's obviously great to have another really strong penalty killer who also can play very strong offensively, and that translates to then the third thing, 5-on-5.”
And yes, let’s keep an eye on that third thing as the season wears on.
In The Nets – Logan Thompson gets the net tonight for the Caps, seeking his third victory in as many starts on the young season. Thompson was a big factor in each of Washington’s wins to this point in the season, and goaltending is one of many early strong points for the Caps; they’ve had good enough goaltending to win or earn points in each of their first three games.
Lifetime against the Rangers, Thompson is 3-2-0 in five appearances – all starts – with a 3.83 GAA and an .863 save pct.
For the Rangers, we’re expecting to see high-scoring netminder Igor Shesterkin in goal tonight. He scored a goal against Tampa Bay in New York’s home opener – the first ever by a Rangers goaltender – and added an assist in a subsequent start, giving him two points in four games on the season.
Lifetime against the Capitals, he is 10-5-1 in 16 appearances – all starts – with a 2.62 GAA and a .915 save pct.
All Down The Line – Here’s how we expect the Caps and Rangers might look when they take the ice on Friday night in the District:
WASHINGTON
Forwards
89-Tuch, 80-Dubois, 43-Wilson
8-Ovechkin, 17-Strome, 72-Beauvillier
21-A. Protas, 62-I. Protas, 25-Kyrou
22-Jenner, 34-Sourdif, 9-Leonard
Defense
6-Chychrun, 27-Liljegren
42-Fehervary, 73-Desharnais
44-Hutson, 52-McIlrath
Goaltenders
48-Thompson
79-Lindgren
Injured/Out
3-Roy (lower body)
38-Sandin (lower body)
Healthy Extras
53-Frank
63-Miroshnichenko
NEW YORK
Forwards
13-Lafreniere, 93-Zibanejad, 94-Perreault
24-Kartye, 10-Miller, 16-Dorofeyev
50-Cuylle, 42-Laba, 17-Tolvanen
28-Bjorkstrand, 53-Beaudoin, 49-Chmelar
Defense
44-Gavrikov, 23-Fox
26-Pettersson, 4-Durzi
12-Smits, 4-Schneider
Goaltenders
31-Shesterkin
33-Garand
Injured/out
38-Sykora (lower body)
70-Korpisalo (lower body)
90-Veleno (lower body)
Healthy Extras
60-Morrow
73-Rempe
