State Your Case: Panthers or Oilers for return to Stanley Cup Final

Monday will mark 175 days since the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers last played each other. That was a memorable Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena in Florida on June 24 that saw the Panthers escape with a 2-1 victory and their first Stanley Cup championship.

While the Panthers celebrated on the ice, the Oilers went back to a solemn locker room to ponder what could have been.

The Oilers will get another chance at the Panthers on Monday, when the Cup Finalists from last season meet for the first time this season, at Rogers Place in Edmonton (8:30 p.m. ET; TVAS, Prime, NHLN, SCRIPPS).

The teams come in with similar records, though each are going in a different direction right now. The Panthers (18-11-2) have been shut out in two straight losses, while the Oilers (18-10-2) have won a season-high five games in a row.

Still each team looks appears to be on its way to another trip to the postseason, but which team is better equipped to get back to the Stanley Cup Final.

That is the question NHL.com senior writer Tom Gulitti and NHL.com Editor-in-Chief Bill Price tackle in this installment of State Your Case.

Gulitti

I'm picking the Panthers in this debate because they already know what it takes to get to the Stanley Cup Final in consecutive seasons, having done it in 2023, when they lost to the Vegas Golden Knights, and last season. In fact, they were the first team to make it back to the Cup Final after losing in it the previous season since the Pittsburgh Penguins lost to Detroit Red Wings in 2008 Final and defeated Detroit in the Final in 2009. Reaching the Cup Final in three consecutive seasons won’t be easy, but the Tampa Bay Lightning recently did it (2020-22). And, though Florida lost some supporting players in the offseason, its championship core of forwards Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe, defensemen Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky remains intact. The Panthers went through a lull when they lost six of seven (1-6-0) from Nov. 12-25, but they followed with a 6-0-1 surge and seem to be able to elevate their play when they need to, to remind everyone that they intend to defend their championship this season. I'm guessing they'll do similar against the Oilers on Monday.

Price

Going all to way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final only to lose either can break a team or make it stronger. In the case of the Oilers, it's the latter, and that is starting to show. Sure, the Oilers got off to a slow start to the season, losing their first three games (0-3-0) and struggling to string more than two wins together until mid-November. But they are hitting their stride now, having won five in a row, including a 7-1 win against the Minnesota Wild and a 6-3 win against the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday. Those are two teams they will likely have to get through to reach the Final. Leon Draisaitl has 13 points (five goals, eight assists) during the five-game winning streak and Connor McDavid has 10 points (two goals, eight assists) in that span. Perhaps the biggest development is Zach Hyman heating up. After going the first 10 games of the season without a goal, the forward has eight in his past 15 games. The Oilers, not surprisingly, had a bit of a Cup Final hangover to start the season, but they are on fire now and look primed to make another run.

Gulitti

The Oilers clearly are playing better now and likely will be looking to make a statement against the Panthers on Monday after they made an impressive one against the Wild on Thursday. A team with McDavid and Draisaitl at the top always is going to have a chance to win. But their depth was depleted from last season, which could hurt their chances in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Defenseman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway, who left as restricted free agents after signing offer sheets with the St. Louis Blues after they were emerging as key young players for the Oilers, have been particularly difficult to replace. The Panthers' depth also took a hit from losing forwards Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Stenlund and Kyle Okposo, defensemen Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson and backup goalie Anthony Stolarz. But they replaced some of that lost depth by adding forwards Tomas Nosek, A.J. Greer and Jesper Boqvist and defenseman Nate Schmidt. And expect general manager Bill Zito to be aggressive again before the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline to add another piece or two, like he did when he traded for Tarasenko and Okposo last season. The Panthers know they have an opportunity to stamp their legacy as repeat champions and will do all they can to take advantage of it.

Price

I have no doubt the Panthers will make some major noise in the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year, and a third straight trip to the Final is not out of the question. And when you mention legacies, McDavid is looking to cement his in Edmonton and the Cup Final loss is providing ample motivation. Anyone who watched "Faceoff: Inside the NHL" on Amazon Prime knows how much it pained McDavid to not win the Cup last year, and he will do whatever it takes to get it this year. And I believe Stan Bowman, the new general manager of the Oilers, will make the moves to fortify Edmonton for the stretch run. The biggest issue for the Oilers could be the teams they may have to beat to reach the Cup Final, namely the Wild, Winnipeg Jets, Golden Knights and Los Angeles Kings, who are playing well right now. But the Oilers gained incredible experience to reach the Cup Final last season and showed tremendous resilience to force Game 7 in the Final after falling behind 3-0 in the series. That experience, resilience and talent is coming to the forefront now and it's why I think they have a better chance of getting back to the Final than Florida.