Islanders-Panthers: Key statistics for Stanley Cup Qualifier series

NHL.com goes Behind the Numbers to identify key statistics for each of the eight best-of-5 series in the Stanley Cup Qualifiers. Today, a look at the matchup between the New York Islanders and Florida Panthers.

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5-on-5 scoring

One concern from 2018-19 carried over for the New York Islanders this season: scoring. They ranked 22nd in the NHL in goals per game for the second straight season (2.78); the Florida Panthers were sixth (3.30). But the main difference between this season and last with the Islanders is that they are not getting the same shutdown defense. New York allowed the fewest goals per game in 2018-19 (2.33) but ranked ninth at 2.79 this season. Why is this significant? The Panthers scored the fourth-most goals at 5-on-5 (158) behind the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche (162 each), and the Toronto Maple Leafs (159). The Islanders ranked 25th in that category (126) and could fall behind early in the series if they struggle to score.

5-on-5 save percentage

Despite allowing more goals per game than last season, the Islanders could help offset this with goalies Semyon Varlamov and Thomas Greiss, who have combined for a .923 save percentage at 5-on-5, which ranked 10th in the League. But it could be cause for concern that after Varlamov started the season 14-3-3 with a .920 save percentage he went 5-11-3 with a .908 save percentage. This likely gives the Islanders slightly less confidence at the position than they had with Greiss and Robin Lehner last season. Still, with the Islanders expected to get back defensemen Adam Pelech (Achilles) and Johnny Boychuk (eyelid), and forward Casey Cizikas (lacerated left leg), Varlamov could return to form and give the Islanders the advantage in net against Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who ranked 44th in the League in save percentage this season (.900; minimum 25 games).

Scoring first

Florida was inconsistent this season, going 35-26-8, but what's interesting is that it tied for the seventh-most wins when scoring first (26) with the Vegas Golden Knights, Boston Bruins and Carolina Hurricanes. This could be the difference for the Panthers in the series if they are able to apply pressure and score on Varlamov quickly. To try to minimize this trend, New York could focus on shutting down Florida's power play, which was tied for 10th with the Minnesota Wild at 21.3 percent.

One encouraging note for the Islanders here is that their penalty kill was slightly improved from last season, ranking 15th in the NHL at 80.7 percent (last season they were tied for 16th at 79.9). It may seem like a small difference, but consider Varlamov was tied for 19th in the NHL in power-play save percentage with Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets (.875; minimum 100 shots). Why does this matter? It shows the Islanders have improved as a whole on the penalty kill compared to last season, when they got slightly better goaltending out of Lehner (.888). If Varlamov can improve his play while shorthanded for New York, the penalty kill could limit Florida's opportunities to score first.

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