Fantasy faceoff: Rasmus Ristolainen vs. Oliver Ekman-Larsson

All offseason long, NHL.com will cover all the angles leading up to your fantasy hockey draft. For some of the most compelling debates, our fantasy writers will compare two players at a given position in the same projected draft range, according to NHL.com's top 250 rankings.
Value is quantified based on factors including (but not limited to) line combinations, power-play usage, team goalie situations, injury history, bounce-back, breakout or sleeper potential, possible regression and age. Once each writer has made his argument, fans can cast their votes in our @NHLFantasy Twitter poll.
Today, we compare defensemen Rasmus Ristolainen of the Buffalo Sabres and Oliver Ekman-Larsson of the Arizona Coyotes:

NOTE:Standard Yahoo categories include goals, assists, plus/minus, penalty minutes, power-play points and shots on goal for skaters, and wins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts for goalies.
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PETE JENSEN: The Sabres led the NHL in power-play efficiency (24.5 percent) in a season where their best offensive player, center Jack Eichel, was limited to 61 games because of an ankle injury. Ristolainen, who had an NHL career-high 25 power-play points, displayed great chemistry with Eichel and Ryan O'Reilly, but the bulk of it came with the man-advantage. Fourteen of the 20 team goals that Ristolainen and O'Reilly each recorded a point on were power-play goals, and 12 of the 15 goals that Ristolainen and Eichel each recorded a point on were PPG. Buffalo's injuries and defensive deficiencies were big reasons it scored the third-fewest even-strength goals (126) in the NHL.
But the Sabres should improve at 5-on-5 after adding stay-at-home defenseman Marco Scandella and bringing back right wing Jason Pominville in a trade with the Minnesota Wild. Pominville scored 40 even-strength points last season in mostly a third-line role, and the left-shooting Scandella is a big upgrade for Ristolainen on the top defensive pair. The Sabres also got good news regarding right wing Kyle Okposo, who's healthy and ready for this season after missing the final six games of last season with a concussion. The Sabres also replaced coach Dan Bylsma with Phil Housley, who guided the Nashville Predators' top four defensemen to new heights in their run to the 2017 Stanley Cup Final.
Ristolainen, who will turn 23 on Oct. 27, is younger than Ekman-Larsson, 26, and has untapped potential at even strength and from a goal-scoring standpoint. Whether the Sabres' loaded forward group can stay healthy is the glaring question, but Buffalo's offseason improvements should give Ristolainen some much-needed help. Even with all the injuries and even-strength struggles in Bylsma's system last season, Ristolainen managed a minus-9 and finished 91st overall in Yahoo (14th among defensemen). That's far better than Ekman-Larsson's minus-25 and 234th-place finish in Yahoo, and even more impressive when you consider Ristolainen had the worst shooting percentage (3.2) of his NHL career and logged the fifth-most ice time per game League-wide (26:28; Ekman-Larsson averaged 24:36).

Ristolainen and Ekman-Larsson are tied for fifth among defensemen in power-play points (46) over the past two seasons combined, and each could easily improve fantasy-wise compared to last season. But the difference in this comparison could be Ristolainen's exposure to Eichel, a projected top 15 overall asset. The Coyotes don't have a player even close to Eichel's caliber on their roster.

BEN ZWEIMAN: Ekman-Larsson wasn't able to withstand the Coyotes' struggles last season. He had his lowest goal total (12) in a full NHL season since he was a rookie in 2010-11, lowest point total (39) since 2011-12, and the worst plus/minus (minus-25) of his NHL career. Simply put, it was Ekman-Larsson's worst statistical season in the NHL. But Ekman-Larsson still finished among the top 50 defensemen in Yahoo (45th), with above-average coverage in goals and power-play points (19). His shooting percentage was right around where it should be (8.3, higher than career average of 7.8), and he ranked 14th League-wide in average ice time per game (24:36, first on Coyotes).
This offseason has come with plenty of changes to Arizona's roster that suggest Ekman-Larsson is primed for a bounce-back season. The Coyotes acquired center Derek Stepan and goalie Antti Raanta in a trade with the New York Rangers. They also landed defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson from the Chicago Blackhawks, giving Ekman-Larsson a huge upgrade on his defense pair. Having scored at least 53 points in each of the past four seasons, Stepan will give Arizona arguably its best center since Daniel Briere. With goaltender Mike Smith traded to the Calgary Flames, Raanta will assume the No. 1 role with a sterling resume as a backup the past four seasons. Raanta is 47-23-9 with a 2.33 goals-against average and .917 save percentage in 94 games, and should help Arizona improve its 3.15 goals allowed per game from 2016-17. An injection of youth in the top six, featuring Dylan Strome, Clayton Keller and Christian Fischer, and things are certainly looking up for Ekman-Larsson's fantasy prospects.

If you're considering drafting Ristolainen, chances are you're banking on his upside and breakout potential. But that may not come to fruition. Ristolainen had 25 PPP for the Sabres' top-ranked unit last season. It would be very surprising to see him eclipse that number. Though Ristolainen had the edge in shots on goal (186-145) over Ekman-Larsson last season, the Sabres defenseman isn't a comparable goal-scorer; he has 25 in 273 NHL games, shooting 4.5 percent. Should Buffalo's power play regress, Ristolainen would likely take a fantasy hit. If the Coyotes improve this season -- which seems likely -- you know what Ekman-Larsson is capable of. He could finish among the top five defensemen and is one of the few players at his position capable of scoring 20 goals.