Players who look to be on the cusp of such a significant increase in scoring sometimes can be discovered by looking at a particularly unlucky shooting percentage, a strong second-half performance, a large number of primary assists, or an even-strength scoring rate that normally precedes a big increase in power-play time.
There are many other factors that can contribute to a breakout season, including a return to full health, contractual incentives and success with a new linemate and/or coach. However, it can be difficult to predict such situations with statistics.
Based on what we can objectively measure, here are the four players most likely to have a breakout season:
Nazem Kadri, Toronto Maple Leafs
Kadri, who turns 26 on Oct. 6, is one of the most underrated players in the NHL. He can draw penalties, play tough minutes, and has excellent shot-based metrics, and his 45 points (17 goals, 28 assists) in 76 games led the Maple Leafs last season.
Statistically, the primary clue for Kadri's potential breakout is his unusually low shooting percentage last season. Going into 2015-16, Kadri had scored 64 goals on 510 shots, an NHL career shooting percentage of 12.5 percent. If that had continued, he would have scored 33 goals, instead of 17, on his 260 shots last season.
A steep drop in shooting percentage sometimes can be explained by changing teams, coaches or linemates, or a steep reduction in power-play time, but it's usually just bad luck.
The arrival of gifted rookies Auston Matthews and William Nylander, and the return to health of James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak could offer Kadri the offensive support he needs to surpass his NHL career high of 50 points in 2013-14, with potential to reach 70.