Mishkin's Musings: Where the Lightning stand as the stretch run begins

As we are now into the final week of regular season action in the Discover Central Division, here's where things stand for the Lightning.

They have locked up a playoff berth and know they will be one of the top three seeds. Currently third, they trail the Florida Panthers by two points for second and the Carolina Hurricanes by four points for first. They have two games in hand on the Panthers and the teams will play in Sunrise on Saturday and Monday. Both the Lightning and Hurricanes have four games remaining on their schedules.
The first tiebreaker is regulation wins and the Lightning have "clinched" that advantage over Florida. Even though Carolina leads the Lightning in points, the Hurricanes trail in regulation wins. While it's mathematically possible for the Hurricanes to catch the Lightning in regulation victories and still finish in a tie, Carolina would lose the second tiebreaker (regulation and overtime wins). So the Lightning would gain the higher seed in the event of a tie with either the Panthers or Hurricanes.
The Lightning face Dallas on Wednesday and Friday before heading to Sunrise. No matter the outcome of these next two contests, the Lightning and Panthers will be separated by no more than two points when they meet on Saturday. Meaning that, as it relates to finishing in second place, both teams control their own destiny.
The Lightning's path to first place is a more narrow one. They need some help along the way. Any combination of five points gained by Carolina or lost by the Lightning over those final four regular season games would prevent the Lightning from overtaking the Hurricanes.
So that's the state of the race among the top three Central teams. But what about the state of the Lightning's game?
There's no doubt that the Lightning would like to finish as high in the standings as possible. Even if they can't get to first place, they'd like to have home ice advantage in their first round series. But the process - how they are playing heading into the postseason - is also important. And on that front, the Lightning have made terrific strides in recent weeks.
Perhaps the low point of the season came in their 7-2 loss to Nashville on April 13. Prior to that defeat, the Lightning had not been on top of their game - especially defensively - for a while. But that showing was their leakiest of the year. It ended up being a springboard for their turnaround, though.
The improvement didn't happen immediately. Following the Nashville contest, the Lightning opened a six-game homestand with a 3-2 overtime win over Florida. Compared to their outing in the previous game, the Lightning made some modest improvements. But it wasn't a strong defensive showing. They got outshot 38-19 and leaned heavily on Andrei Vasilevskiy.
It was really in the next contest that the Lightning began transforming their game. Even though they lost to the Panthers, 5-3, the Lightning felt they played better than they had in the overtime win. They limited scoring chances and owned more puck possession.
Then came one of their best performances of the season, a 3-2 overtime victory against Carolina. They played a hungry, committed, physical game in all three zones. They neutralized Carolina's speed and forced the Hurricanes to play defense for much of the night. When Carolina did possess the puck in the Lightning end, the Hurricanes had difficultly generating scoring chances.
The teams met again the next night and Carolina was deserving of its 4-1 win. They played at a quicker pace than the Lightning and, unlike the previous evening, owned most of the possession time. Especially over the final two periods. Overall, it was a somewhat flat performance for the Lightning. But there was one positive sign. Even though the Hurricanes dominated possession, the Lightning didn't yield as many scoring chances as they might have when ceding so much possession time. A small silver lining, but a noteworthy one.
Since that regulation loss to the Hurricanes, the Lightning have gone 5-0-1 over their next six contests. Their game is rounding into playoff-form. They've held the opposition to 25 shots or less in five of the six. In the other game, they allowed 40 shots (to Chicago on April 27). But 13 of those shots came during seven Chicago power play chances. The Lightning had a few rush coverage breakdowns in that game, but otherwise, defended well during five-on-five play.
What we've seen fairly consistently from the Lightning since the Nashville loss and Florida OT win has been impressive. A high compete level. Fast pace of play. Commitment to team defense. Aggressive forechecking. Puck possession domination. And, even though they haven't gotten rewarded offensively in some of these games as much as they might have liked, they haven't allowed frustration to affect their play. In other words, they haven't sacrificed defense for offense. These elements were part of their Stanley Cup Championship run last season. And with this year's playoffs about to begin, it's encouraging to see the Lightning getting back to those habits.