One: Keep it up – The Kraken against the Nashville Predators enjoyed one of the best starts to a game in franchise history. They could have had at least four goals in the opening period alone. Unfortunately, they scored twice. Their best chance at a third goal came with under two minutes to go in the frame when Melanson had a point-blank chance from the slot and an empty right side of the net only to put it off the post from 15 feet away. Give him that chance 100 times and he’ll score on 99 of them. Unfortunately, this was the one case in which the puck did not go in. And that’s how this game kind of went for the Kraken. They probably should have had a third goal in the second period to go up 3-1. Unfortunately, Ryker Evans was tripped and went flying into goalie Juuse Saros just as the incoming puck entered the crease. The goal was nullified on a borderline goaltender interference call. But somehow, the initial trip that led to Evans striking Saros wasn’t called for a penalty.
Nashville tied it up moments later and things went downhill from there.
But those are the breaks. Play the way they did in the opening half of the game, and the Kraken will probably win on most nights. Yes, they need to learn to play a full 60 minutes even when things don’t go their way. But there wasn’t much to change from the way they began this one. They also finished with 45 shots – third most in their history. Do that, you’ll win most games. The “expected goals” tally said the Kraken should have won 5-3 instead of losing 4-2. But that’s why they don’t hand out an “Expected Stanley Cup” for an invisible parade every spring. They’ve now got to trust in the process and hope to finish the job next time around.
The Kraken would like newcomer Bobby McMann to help with the finishing but were still awaiting necessary immigration paperwork as of Wednesday’s practice. Kraken head coach Lane Lambert said he hoped the situation would be resolved within the next 24 hours and make him available for the game, but it’s a waiting game for now.
Two: Steal a win – One reason the Kraken still held a wild card spot heading into Wednesday night’s action was the play throughout this season of netminders Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord. Grubauer had saved an extra 12.03 goals above average based on shot quality and Daccord had done the same on 11.88 goals to rank No. 7 and No. 9 respectively in the league, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Having two goalies in the NHL’s top tier in that category goes a long way to winning games that might otherwise have been lost. That hasn’t happened as much, though, since the Olympic break ended. The Kraken have lost five of seven overall – all in regulation – since play resumed and those two victories over Carolina and Vancouver were the only games in which a Kraken goalie decisively took away goals on shots that probably should have gone in and likely impacted the game’s outcome. In one game against Carolina, they helped “steal” a win because the Hurricanes likely would have prevailed if not for Daccord.
Carolina had 2.56 expected goals against Daccord according to Natural Stat Trick and 2.9 via Sport Logiq but scored only once as the Kraken won 2-1.
Daccord also played very well against Vancouver, which had 3.5 expected goals according to Natural Stat Trick and 2.9 via Sport Logiq. But Daccord also allowed them only one goal in a 5-1 victory. Would the Kraken have won that game anyway even had the Canucks scored the expected three times? Probably, so it’s not really a stolen game. But you never know how things will turn out if a few more opposing shots find the net.
There have been a couple of other games where a Kraken netminder stopped a fraction of a goal more than the “expected” total. But not enough to swing a loss into a victory. And that’s what the Kraken need from here with the quality of opponent about to get serious and deep. They need their goaltenders to get back to making enough huge stops to help an offense that doesn’t always score when expected.
Three: Know the foe – Just what the Kraken needed on the heels of three consecutive home losses -- the NHL’s No. 1 team. They’ve scored 82 more goals than they’ve allowed this season, which is 34 better than the league’s next closest team differential. That said, the Avalanche will be playing the first game of a West Coast trip, and you never know how that will impact a visiting squad. Colorado had won five in a row and seven of eight before losing by a goal at home in regulation to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday night. They’d previously lost only four regulation home games all season, so we’ll see how they respond. They’ve lost only six regulation games on the road, so there’s that.
With the Avalanche, it all starts with Nathan MacKinnon, who leads the team and league with 43 goals and is tied for second in the NHL with 104 points. So, while he did miss an open net for Canada at a critical time in the Winter Olympics gold medal game against Team USA, it’s not recommended he be given another crack at one here.
It almost seems unfair that the Avs got to reunite with forward Nazem Kadri at the trade deadline, given his 62 points are sixth on this star-studded roster and would be leading the Kraken by 18 points. But yes, the best team appears to have gotten even better. Let’s not forget Cale Makar, he of the hit on Jared McCann that knocked him out of the opening playoff round three years ago. No doubt he’ll get booed whenever he touches the puck, which hopefully isn’t all that often given the defenseman has 19 goals and his 66 points would lead the Kraken by 22 points.
Projected lineup (not official):
McCann-Beniers-Eberle
Tolvanen-Stephenson-Gaudreau
Catton-Wright-Kakko
Winterton-Meyers-Melanson
Dunn-Larsson
Lindgren-Montour
Oleksiak-Evans
Grubauer
