5 THINGS: Flyers vs. Wild

GAME NOTES
Interim head coach Mike Yeo's Philadelphia Flyers (16-27-10) will host Dean Evason's Minnesota Wild (31-17-3) at the Wells Fargo Center on Thursday evening. Game time is 7:00 p.m. ET (NBCSP, 97.5 The Fanatic).

This is the first of two games between the teams this season. The scene will shift to the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul on March 29.
It's been a long time since these clubs have faced off against one another. Due to pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season and the temporarily realigned all-divisional schedule of 2020-21, the Flyers have not had a game against Minnesota since sustaining a 4-1 road loss to the Wild on Dec. 14, 2019. One day earlier, Flyers left winger Oskar Lindblom's Ewing Sarcoma diagnosis was announced publicly; news that overshadowed the game itself.
The Flyers enter this game coming off a 3-0 home loss to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday. The process and structure for the Flyers were fine -- Philly outshot Edmonton by a 39-32 margin, high-danger scoring chances were even at 7-7, and Carter Hart was sharp in turning back 29 of 31 shots prior to a Connor McDavid empty-net goal. However, the Flyers overall shot quality was mediocre. Too many of the Flyers' best scoring chances never even got on the net. Moreover, the Flyers paid the price for an unsuccessful 5-on-3 power play and for taking five penalties against one of the NHL's most dangerous power play squads.
Philadelphia is playing the sixth game of an eight-game homestand. The team is 1-3-1 through the first five games. The Wild are playing the front end of a road back-to-back set that will continue on Friday with a game against the Buffalo Sabres.
The Wild enter this game coming off a disappointing 5-1 home loss to the Calgary Flames on Tuesday, getting swept in a home-and-home set. Minnesota has lost four games in a row within regulation and has dropped seven of its last 10. However, the team remains in third place in the Central Division, one point (with three games in hand) ahead of the Nashville Predators.
Here are five things to watch in this game:
1. Minimizing one-and-dones
Going into Tuesday's game against the Oilers, the Flyers' objective was to spend more time attacking and less time defending than they did (after a strong first period) over the final 30 minutes of their 2-1 victory over the Washington Capitals last Saturday afternoon.
At least at 5-on-5, the Flyers statistically had the majority of the puck possession against Edmonton; the problem -- apart from taking multiple avoidable and needless penalties -- was what the Flyers did once they did have the puck. Open shots were passed up. The net was missed twice on point-blank opportunities. Moreover, far too may forays into the offensive zone were limited to a single perimeter shot attempt with no traffic at the net. The result, time and again, was a loss of puck possession.
The Flyers' backchecking pressure and own-zone defensive play, overall, was good against Edmonton. But the Oilers, with superstars McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, have more offensive firepower than the Flyers. Philadelphia is a team that has to work harder for chances and be more opportunistic in finishing them when they arise. Thus, seven high-danger chances for Edmonton vs. seven for the Flyers is actually predictive of a disadvantage although the underlying process was sound.
Tuesday's loss marked the fifth time the Flyers have been shut out this season in 53 games.
Additionally, despite being in the NHL's top five in total time spent on 5-on-3 power plays (7:53) and being tied for sixth in 5-on-3 power play opportunities (eight), the Flyers have not cashed in even once. They do have one goal this season on a rare 6-on-3 with the goalie pulled.
When playing with the goalie pulled for an extra attacker at 6-on-5, the Flyers have given up 16 empty-net goals this season. They've scored twice. Too often, the opposing ENG has been a too-predictable outcome after puck possession is lost.
2. Flyers Line Play
Since the NHL All-Star break, the Flyers have played seven games. Five of the seven have been winnable, yet the team is 1-5-1. One of the more consistent recent bright spots for the club has been the play of Scott Laughton's line. Overall, they've been tenacious around the puck and created pressure both off the forecheck and in transition from defense to offense.
However, Tuesday's game against the Oilers was a rough outing for Laughton and company. The decision-making and execution by the line was not where it needed to be, and Yeo juggled things around in the lineup rotation when it became evident that this line was not on top of its game on that night. The line will collectively aim to climb right back on the horse against the Wild.
There is also one change to the starting lineup. Max Willman is slated to re-enter the lineup, with rookie Isaac Ratcliffe being sent down to the AHL's Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Yeo said after Wednesday's practice that, after Ratcliffe took two penalties in the Washington game, there was a drop-off in the player's performance over the remainder of that game as well as Tuesday's game. Yeo said that Ratcliffe seemed to become hesitant and trying to blend in rather than being assertive.
Defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen took a maintenance day off from practice on Wednesday. Kevin Connauton subbed on the right side of a pairing with Travis Sanheim. Yeo said that Ristolainen is expected to be good to go for Thursday's game.
The projected Flyers lineup (subject to change) is as follows:
86 Joel Farabee - 28 Claude Giroux - 89 Cam Atkinson
23 Oskar Lindblom - 21 Scott Laughton - 11 Travis Konecny
25 James van Riemsdyk - 19 Derick Brassard- 20 Gerry Mayhew
71 Max Willman - 38 Patrick Brown - 17 Zack MacEwen
9 Ivan Provorov - 61 Justin Braun
6 Travis Sanheim - 70 Rasmus Ristolainen
3 Keith Yandle - 24 Nick Seeler
79 Cart Hart
[35 Martin Jones]
PP1: Giroux, JVR, Farabee, Atkinson, Yandle
PP2: Brassard, Ratcliffe, Konecny, Mayhew, Provorov
3. Inside the Numbers

Despite their recent struggles, the Wild are a plus-25 as a team in five-on-five goal differential (128 GF/ 103 GA). They are a shade below the middle of the pack in all-situations shot attempt differentials (49.94 percent team Corsi) and slightly above the middle of pack when only 5-on-5 play is considered. In terms of shot quality, the team is 20th in all-situations expected goals (49.15 percent share) but somewhat above the median at 5-on-5 (51.44 percent, ranked 13th).
When it comes to the Flyers' underlying numbers, the overall numbers remain ugly. The team was mired near the bottom of the NHL for much of the season in the basic process-driven stats tied to puck-possession and shot quality. There was really nowhere to go but up, and the team has recently done so in modest increments. Dating back to Jan. 29, the Flyers are more or less breaking even in team Corsi (49.3 percent) across all manpower situations and in expected goal share at 5-on-5 (49.43 percent).
However, the bottom line is that Philly still only has three wins to show for it: the final game of January, the first game in February and the last game in February. The Flyers' continued struggles to put the puck in the net and too-frequent failure to execute at the most critical junctures of the game have rendered the recent process improvements to a footnote.
The Wild have struggled to stay out of the penalty box this season. The team has been shorthanded 172 times (16 more times than the Flyers) and ranks a pedestrian 20th (77.9 percent) in PK success rate. A top power play team could exploit this. The Flyers power play, alas, has been a problem area most of the season.
Philadelphia comes into this game ranked 30th in the NHL at an abysmal 13.8 success rate (13.0 percent at home). Over the 22-game stretch dating back to Jan. 1, the Flyers are 7-for-64 (10.9 percent) on the power play; one of the worst 20-to-25-game stretches in the last quarter century of team history. Remarkably, there are actually two NHL teams with lower PP scoring rates since New Year's Day 2022: the Seattle Kraken (10.5 percent) and Arizona Coyotes (8.1 percent).

4. Behind Enemy Lines: Minnesota Wild
The Wild figure to be a hungry team as they come to Philadelphia mired in a four-game losing streak with just three wins in their last 10 games. Over that 10-game span, the Wild have given up 42 goals while scoring 30. The PK has had big problems (68.5 percent) in that span.Offensively, Kirill Kaprasov has posted 11 points (5g, 6a) in that span while veteran Mats Zuccarello also has 11 points (3g, 8a) and Kevin Fiala (4g, 6a) has 10. With veteran goalie Cam Talbot recently struggling (1-4-0, 3.92 GAA, .883 save percentage), the starts have been split evenly of late between Talbot and Kaapo Kahkonen (2-3-0, 3.09 GAA, .901 SV%).
Tuesday's performance against the Flames was better than the previous outing, -- more competitive in the trenches, more physical -- but still not nearly good enough to beat the Pacific Division leaders.Marcus Foligno scored Minnesota's lone goal.
For the season, the 24-year-old Kaprisov has improved upon his Calder Trophy winning rookie campaign of 2020-21. This season, Kaprisov has racked up 24 goals and 60 points in 50 games. Thursday's game will be his first career game against the Flyers. Pre-scout video will show that the Flyers must be aware of where he is on the ice at all times. When Minnesota is on the power play, they often try to get the inside to center Joel Eriksson Ek, who has potted 10 goals on man advantage among his 16 overall tallies this season.
A winger during his brief time with the Flyers, Ryan Hartman has found a home as a center for Minnesota. The forward, who has bounced around the NHL a bit, has posted 19 goals and 37 points while dressing in all 51 games this season. On the back end, when healthy, the Wild have a steady group with the likes of Jared Spurgeon (36 GP, 20 points, +16, 21:18 TOI), Matt Dumba (40 GP, 23:36 TOI, 20 points), Jonas Brodin (23:30 TOI, 74 blocks, 20 points), 36-year-old veteran Alex Goligoski (25 points,+15),Dmitry Kulikov, and Jon Merrill.
Dumba has been out with a lower-body injury, last playing on Feb. 12. Dumba is on the road trip with the Wild and is considered day-to-day at this point. Forward Jordan Greenway has missed the last three games with an upper-body injury but has been skating.
Overall this season, Talbot (19-12-1, 2.98 GAA, .908 save percentage, one shutout) has appeared in 32 games. Kahkonen (12-5-2, 2.67 GAA, .917 SV%) has had 21 outings.
Depending on Dumba's availability and other tweaks, the Wild's lineup may have some chances from last game. Below were the primary combinations in Tuesday's game against the Flames:
97 Kirill Kaprisov - 38 Ryan Hartman - 36 Mats Zuccarello
22 Kevin Fiala - 89 Frederick Gaudreau - 12 Matthew Boldy
21 Brandon Duhaime - 14 Joel Eriksson Ek - 17 Marcus Foligno
52 Connor Dewar - 7 Nico Sturm - 27 Nick Bjugstad
47 Alex Goligoski - 46 Jared Spurgeon
25 Jonas Brodin - 29 Dmitry Kulikov
4 Jon Merrill - 59 Calen Addison
33 Cam Talbot
34 Kaapo Kahkonen
PP1: Kaprisov, Eriksson Ek, Zuccarello, Boldy, Spurgeon
PP2: Foligno, Gaudreau, Fiala, Goligoski, Addison
5. Players to Watch: Mayhew and Fiala
Gerry Mayhew debuted in the NHL as a member of the Wild. The 29-year-old winger has made the most of his callup opportunity with the Flyers this season. He is pointless in the last three games but has continued to play well in about 12 minutes of ice time per game. Mayhew has consistently been providing speed and forechecking tenacity. He has chipped in six goals in 19 games overall.
Kevin Fiala (17 goals, 44 points on the season) has been hot of late for the Wild. He has three goals and seven points in his last seven outings. However, much of the pregame talk will center around how to deal with Kaprisov.