Only the bottom 11 teams are eligible to win the first pick, while the bottom 12 teams can win the second pick. There’s also a cap on how far teams can jump, and no club can move up more than 10 spots, limiting stronger teams from stealing a higher pick.
Each team is assigned a set of four-number combinations, using numbers 1-14. There are 1,000 total combinations, distributed based on where teams finish in the standings, so the lower the finish, the better the odds.
The Canucks hold 185 combinations, and for context, the Chicago Blackhawks have 135, the New York Rangers have 115, and the remaining teams have 95 or fewer combinations.
The Canucks have a 25.5 percent chance of landing the first overall pick, which is based on the outright percentage of 18.5% (185 out of 1,000 possible combinations), but because teams 12-16 can’t jump high enough to claim the top selection, their cumulative unused possible win percentage (7.5%) is redistributed upward, pushing the Canucks total odds to 25.5 percent.
The actual draw is straightforward. Four numbers are selected at random from a lottery machine to determine the first overall pick, then the process is repeated for the second pick.
If the Canucks don't land either of those spots, they’re locked into selecting third overall. From there, the draft order returns to the standings. Picks three through 32 are assigned in inverse order of finish, with playoff teams slotted in based on how far they advance. Teams that didn’t win their division and missed the conference finals are ordered first by points, followed by division winners who fall short of the conference finals. Conference finalists come next, with the Stanley Cup runner-up selecting 31st and the champion picking last at 32.
Tiebreakers for draft position are handled first by regulation wins and non-shootout overtime wins, and finally, if needed, the head-to-head results.
The draft lottery format has evolved over time, with multiple changes since its introduction in 1995. The current system has been in place since 2021, with minor tweaks added in 2022.
There’s plenty of opportunity at the top of the draft for the Canucks, a firm floor, and that kind of certainty matters.
