The Stars' magic number to clinch a playoff spot dropped from 10 to seven on Monday with their win in Winnipeg, Minnesota losing to Nashville, and the Stars clinching tiebreakers against both the Wild and Arizona.
Any combination of seven points gained by the Stars or lost by the team with the ninth-highest points potential in the West would secure a playoff spot for Dallas. In other words, every one point gained by the Stars cuts the magic number by one, as does every point lost by that team in the ninth position. When the magic number reaches zero, the Stars will be guaranteed of finishing in the top eight in the standings since the ninth-place team could not pass them.
In simplest terms, the Stars would need seven points -- say a 3-2-1 record in their final six games -- to clinch a playoff spot.
Magic numbers can be complicated because there is no one opposing team to watch. You are watching a position. In this case, it's the ninth-highest points potential in the Western Conference. It's not always the ninth-place team in the standings, but it can be. Right now it is, and that is Arizona.
The Coyotes have 79 points, and with six games remaining they can win out and hit a maximum of 91 points. The Stars, who have 84 points, would need seven points to hit 91, thus the magic number of seven.
But it is not always as simple as that ninth team losing points.
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For example, if Arizona were to lose in regulation Tuesday against Chicago, Dallas' magic number drops only one point to six because Chicago would take over as the team with the ninth-highest points potential in the West at 90.
The Blackhawks would be fifth in the wild-card race and 11th in the West, but ninth in points potential, and the Stars would need six points to hit 90, thus the magic number of six. The magic number will be six if Chicago wins in overtime or a shootout as well because then both the Coyotes and Blackhawks would have a maximum of 90 points.
If Arizona wins, the magic number stays at seven.
Also, the Stars have a different magic number to eliminate the various teams outside the playoffs chasing them. They need seven points to guarantee finishing ahead of Arizona, six points (3-3-0) as far as Chicago, and five points (2-3-1) when it comes to Minnesota.
What about tiebreakers? The Stars clinched tiebreakers Monday against both Arizona and Minnesota. The Coyotes can no longer catch the Stars in the first tiebreaker, which is regulation/overtime wins (ROW). Minnesota can still tie the Stars in ROW, but Dallas owns the second tiebreaker, which is the season series. The Stars already had clinched the ROW tiebreaker against Chicago.
With the tiebreakers clinched, the Stars would just need to tie Arizona, Minnesota, and Chicago in points to guarantee finishing ahead of them in the standings.
