Mailbag: Analyzing predictions for the second half of 2018-19 season

Here is the Dec. 26 edition of Dan Rosen's weekly mailbag, which runs every Wednesday. If you have a question, tweet it to @drosennhl and use #OvertheBoards.
In celebration of the holiday season and the new year approaching, instead of taking questions, the mailbag this week consists of your predictions for what will happen in 2019 followed by some analysis.

Alex Ovechkin will win the Hart Trophy. -- @alehtonen_
It's a legitimate prediction, especially with what he has done so far; he leads the NHL with 29 goals in 35 games, and has the Capitals atop the Metropolitan Division. If Ovechkin can score at least 60 goals, finish with at least 100 points and the Capitals win the Metropolitan, he'll win the Hart Trophy, or at least he better. But it's going to be a challenge for Ovechkin to keep up his current pace, especially when you look at his shooting percentage of 20.6 percent, which is 8.0 percentage points better than his NHL average. Regression certainly is possible, if not expected. That doesn't mean he won't score 50 goals, put up 80-90 points and the Capitals still win the division, but I think he needs 60 and 100 to get the Hart Trophy away from Avalanche forwards Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, or Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov, or Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid, or Buffalo Sabres center Jack Eichel. There are so many good candidates.
Joel Quenneville will coach the St. Louis Blues. -- @DanHerrejon
Quenneville might have his pick of three, four or more teams depending on what happens through the rest of the season. The Blues are in the mix considering Craig Berube still has the interim tag on him. So are the Philadelphia Flyers and Los Angeles Kings, because Scott Gordon in Philadelphia and Willie Desjardins in Los Angeles each is an interim coach. I think Quenneville to Philadelphia makes the most sense because the Flyers have the biggest upside of the teams I just mentioned. He has not been contacted by the Flyers, so all of this is pure speculation. The biggest question, as always with Philadelphia, is in goal. But if rookie Carter Hart spends the second half of the season answering that question, I can see Quenneville buying into the Flyers and diving in for his first foray into coaching in the Eastern Conference after 22 seasons in the West with the Blues, Colorado Avalanche and Blackhawks. If Quenneville doesn't go to St. Louis, perhaps that's where Todd McLellan lands. Alain Vigneault also is a possibility.

Corey Crawford is forced into retirement. The Chicago Blackhawks sign both Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky in the offseason. They can score, get Vezina quality goaltending, and their D-corps led by Henri Jokiharju and Adam Boqvist is a big surprise. Jack Hughes helps drive them to Stanley Cup Playoff contention again. -- @k\corpstein
There's a lot to digest here.
Crawford won't retire if he can't play any longer, which I truly hope is not the case. However, if it is the case, the Blackhawks would put him on long-term injured reserve for the duration of his contract, which runs through the 2019-20 season, meaning they could exceed the salary cap by his cap charge. It would allow them to have some extra cap space and the thought of Bobrovsky would become real at that point. The Blackhawks would have to have a firm decision on Crawford before July 1 though. To get Panarin too would require some serious cap finagling. Maybe they can find a trade partner willing to take forwards Brandon Saad or Artem Anisimov, or defenseman Connor Murphy. Jokiharju and the potential, if not likely, addition of Boqvist certainly makes Murphy expendable. I'm still not willing to go out on a limb and say they'd sign both Bobrovsky and Panarin. You could be talking about $18-20 million per season between the two. I like how you threw Hughes into the mix. The Blackhawks certainly look like they might be contenders for the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, but even if they finish 31st in the League they have an 18.5 percent chance of winning the 2019 NHL Draft Lottery. If everything you said comes true, they'll be in contention again. But if everything you said comes true, I'll hit the floor in shock. That's a lot that has to go Chicago's way.
The Buffalo Sabres will miss the playoffs this season. -- @bloodfury\96
Wrong. They have a seven-point cushion for a playoff berth now and they have 23 games remaining at home, where they are 12-4-2.
The 3-0 win
against the Anaheim Ducks at KeyBank Center on Saturday should do wonders for their team psyche, especially after back-to-back regulation losses against the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals. I'm buying the Sabres as being for real.

The New York Rangers trade Mats Zuccarello to the Calgary Flames and trade Kevin Hayes to the Boston Bruins. -- @salvaticoo
Nothing is guaranteed, but I would expect Zuccarello, a right wing, to be traded before the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline on Feb. 25. I'm not sure about the Flames as the destination though. If we're looking at the Western Conference, I think the Vegas Golden Knights and their third line would be a perfect fit for Zuccarello. He could replace former Rangers forward Oscar Lindberg on a line with center Cody Eakin and left wing Tomas Nosek. Zuccarello provides more offense and a more dynamic game than Lindberg. Vegas can't yet rely on the eventual return of forward Erik Haula, who is out month to month with a lower-body injury sustained Nov. 6. Zuccarello would be an upgrade to Vegas' third line, and the Golden Knights have their picks in each of the first six rounds of the 2019 draft to use as part of any potential trade.
I have said before in this space that I think the Rangers should sign Hayes, who has 13 points (five goals, eight assists) during an NHL career-best seven-game point streak. The 26-year-old center has been terrific and I think he's been the Rangers' best skater all season. He's improved in three straight seasons, including this one. If Hayes is traded I would expect the Bruins to make a push because of their need down the middle behind Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. But will the Bruins be able to outbid the Winnipeg Jets, who could use Hayes as their second-line center, between forwards Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor? What a terrific line that would be.
Ilya Kovalchuk announces his retirement from the NHL -- again. -- @MPalau27
And give back the final two years of his three-year, $18.75 million contract? No. Kovalchuk will stick it out with the Kings. They might try to trade him if they decide to go into rebuilding mode, but I'd be shocked if he retired from the NHL again.

Erik Karlsson doesn't stay with the San Jose Sharks after this season and elects to go to unrestricted free agency. -- @briantodd34
I agree. Karlsson has found his legs and his game in San Jose. He has 26 points (two goals, 24 assists) in 37 games, and has 10 assists during an eight-game point streak. He may re-sign with the Sharks, but I don't think it'll be before he becomes an unrestricted free agent July 1.
The Sharks will trade Karlsson to another Western Conference team before the trade deadline. -- @BartlettBrando
No. This is a Stanley Cup or bust season for the Sharks, especially with Karlsson, Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski all on expiring contracts. I expect general manager Doug Wilson to aggressively try to add and improve the team. He won't take away from it because of uncertainty about the future. The future is now in San Jose. It has been for a while.
The Dallas Stars get healthy on defense, trade for Chris Kunitz, move into the top three in the Central Division and make it to the Stanley Cup Final. -- @Captainhairdoo
Getting defensemen Stephen Johns (upper body) and Marc Methot (lower body) back at some point this season would benefit the Stars, but each is out with no timeline to return. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an attempt by general manager Jim Nill to add before the deadline, but why forward Chris Kunitz? Kunitz is a four-time Stanley Cup champion, but he has no goals and two assists in 23 games with the Blackhawks this season. The Stars need to go bigger and potentially look more on defense considering the injuries to Methot and Johns, and the fact that coach Jim Montgomery rarely is using defenseman Julius Honka. The Stars have been too inconsistent for me to believe they will stay in the top three of the Central Division if they get there.
The Flames and Edmonton Oilers stay hot and meet each other in the playoffs for the first time since the 1991 Smythe Division semifinal. -- @01Ainsy
A Battle of Alberta in the Stanley Cup Playoffs would be a blast. The first two regular-season games between the Flames and Oilers have been physical, tough, fun and entertaining, especially
the Flames' 4-2 win
at Scotiabank Saddledome on Nov. 17. The Flames rallied for the win by scoring three unanswered goals in the third period, including two from forward Elias Lindholm. The game featured 56 penalty minutes, including 41 for the Oilers.
Edmonton won the second game, 1-0
at Rogers Place, on Dec. 9. It wasn't as entertaining but it had its moments and you still could sense the rivalry in the game. The teams will play twice more this season, Jan. 19 in Edmonton and April 6 in Calgary, the last day of the regular season. Could that could be a prelude to Game 1 between the Flames and Oilers a few days later?