Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Pastrnak in race for Hart Trophy, numbers say

NHL.com goes behind the numbers during the season pause to examine the frontrunners for each National Hockey League award using underlying statistics. This week we look at three potential finalists for the Hart Trophy, which is voted on to recognize the most valuable player of the regular season, based on season performance, team point share and other statistical factors.

Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers

Draisaitl leads the NHL with 110 points (43 goals, 67 assists) in 71 games, 13 more than teammate Connor McDavid. The forward also leads the NHL with 67 assists and 44 power-play points, and his 43 goals are fourth behind Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin (48), Boston Bruins forward David Pastrnak (48) and Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (47). Draisaitl is eighth in points per 60 minutes (2.87) among skaters to play at least 55 games. What makes this stat notable for Draisaitl is that he averages the fourth-most 5-on-5 time on ice per game among forwards (16:31), making it more difficult to achieve a strong points-per-60 metric, which is recorded for 5-on-5 situations. It's also worth mentioning that Draisaitl's 66 even-strength points are second in the NHL behind Artemi Panarin of the New York Rangers (71), which is impressive considering Draisaitl has been separated from McDavid at even strength. Draisaitl leads the NHL in multipoint games (33) and has been the Oilers' most significant contributor this season, giving him well-deserved consideration for the Hart Trophy.

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche

MacKinnon is fifth in the NHL with 93 points (35 goals, 58 assists) in 69 games and is playing at the best points-per-game rate (1.35) of his seven NHL seasons. This individual feat is noteworthy because his most frequent linemates, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen, each missed extended time because of injury. Despite that, MacKinnon is sixth in the NHL in assists (58), fourth in power-play points (31), third in even-strength points (62) and first in shots on goal (318). The center is sixth in assists per 60 (1.89) and seventh in points per 60 (2.89) among forwards to play in at least 55 games. Another impressive individual feat for MacKinnon is his 29 multipoint games, which is tied with Pastrnak for second in the NHL, and his 16 multiassist games, which is tied with McDavid and John Carlson of the Washington Capitals for most in the NHL.

David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins

Pastrnak is tied for the NHL lead in goals (48) with Ovechkin, he's first in power-play goals with 20, and is third with 38 power-play points, behind Draisaitl (44) and McDavid (43). Pastrnak's 95 points are tied with Panarin for third in the NHL, and his 47 assists are 13th. The right wing is tied with MacKinnon for second in the NHL with 29 multipoint games. Pastrnak is sixth in points per 60 minutes (2.90) and fifth in goals per 60 (1.51) among skaters to play at least 55 games. He plays on one of the best lines in the NHL, with center Patrice Bergeron and left wing Brad Marchand, who account for a combined 47.1 percent of the Bruins' goals this season (107 of 227). Pastrnak represents 21.1 percent of his team's goals, the highest of any skater on any team in the NHL.

The winner is ...

So based on the above stats, who wins? What Draisaitl and Pastrnak have done this season is remarkable, but it's easy to argue that MacKinnon's statistics should carry more weight considering how many injuries the Avalanche have had to overcome. His even-strength production despite not having his usual linemates puts this argument over the edge. MacKinnon has helped Colorado keep pace in the Central Division, where it is two points behind the St. Louis Blues, and on top of that is piecing together the best season of his career.
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